Just before the 100-day mark, a crack appeared in the unity of the coalition partners: Finance Minister Christian Lindner, chairman of the smallest party in government, the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) came forward with a bright idea: He suggested compensating motorists for skyrocketing prices of gasoline and diesel.

That evening, on prime-time public TV, Economy Minister and Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck from the environmentalist Green Party was visibly not amused. There were "all kinds of suggestions for the market" and it would be wise to sit down together and then make the right suggestions, he said.

The topic area is a controversial one. Germans are famous for their love of cars and speed-driving on the Autobahn motorways — something that's especially close to the heart of sports-car fan Christian Lindner and his affluent voters. The Green Party, meanwhile, is keen to see a speed limit on motorways and wants to boost public transport. 

Until now, the new three-party coalition headed by the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) has taken great pains not to discuss contentious topics in public. The ability to maintain silence, to present only resolutions to the outside world — not the steps it took to reach them — has so far been somewhat of a recipe for success for the alliance.

FDP: The smallest is the most confident

But after 100 days in office, the coalition seems to have been brought back down to earth — to party-political realities. The business-oriented FDP and the environmentalist Greens are the two opposite poles in the government. A key difference: The Greens wanted to form a coalition with the SPD even during election campaigning, the FDP first had to be convinced. The resulting imbalance has persisted. The FDP acts with the self-confidence of being indispensable.

It is a challenge for Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of the SPD, to strike a balance.

The chancellor and the finance minister have been getting on well. Scholz was Lindner's predecessor as finance minister, so they have a connection there — perhaps too much so in the eyes of the Greens.

When Olaf Scholz announced a planned €100 billion ($110 billion) boost for the Bundeswehr during a state of the nation address on February 27, it later emerged that he had agreed on this with his finance minister, but not with senior SPD or Green politicians, who seemed to be taken by surprise.

The coalition also does not see eye to eye on the topic of the coronavirus pandemic: Most FDP lawmakers are opposed to the introduction of a universal vaccination mandate. The Greens and SPD are mainly in favor but lack the majority to push this through in parliament. So Health Minister Karl Lauterbach, of the SPD, decided not to submit a government bill for the corresponding law, which made the government look weak and indecisive. 

When it comes to the infection protection laws, the FDP is also behind the push to do away with most coronavirus prevention measures from March 20.

Where is Olaf Scholz?

Right at the start of his term in office, the chancellor experienced how quickly one can fall from favor with the voters. Olaf Scholz is a politician who likes to work behind the scenes — in public he likes to communicate results, not the steps it took to get them. In his inaugural address to parliament on December 15, Scholz announced that he wanted to quickly tackle key projects in the fields of climate protection, digitalization, and economic transformation.

After that, he practically disappeared from public view, becoming so invisible that the hashtag #WoIstScholz (Where is Scholz?) was soon trending on Twitter.

Then when the crisis with Russia intensified, and the call to deliver weapons to Ukraine became louder, as did the call for sanctions — Scholz seemed to duck away. Consequently, the popularity of the chancellor and his SPD significantly declined in January.

Renewable 'freedom energies' instead of Russian gas

But Scholz swung into action: He flew to Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow and finally made the decision not to give the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline an operating license —  for the time being. This decision also meant accommodating the Greens, who had long wanted Nord Stream stopped.

The Greens' reasons were not only geopolitical but also in view of reducing the use of fossil fuels and accelerating the expansion of renewable energy sources. Soaring energy prices and the risk of Russia turning off the gas mean the Greens now have a tailwind. Even the FDP is shifting its position — Christian Lindner has labeled wind and solar power "freedom energies." However, the FDP is also advocating a roll-back of the nuclear phaseout. Germany is set to switch off its three remaining nuclear power plants by the end of this year. 

Empty coffers cause trouble

The war and the energy crisis, climate change, the pandemic —  each of these crises alone has the potential to keep a government on tenterhooks.

This government must deal with all of them, all at once. And this becomes even more difficult the less money they have at their disposal. The FDP also plays a key role in this matter. Finance Minister Christian Lindner will have to take out loans for hundreds of billions of euros again this year. In 2023, however, he wants to again put the brakes on new debt.

According to preliminary financial plans, substantial savings will have to be made from 2023. Many of the projects included in the coalition agreement would no longer be affordable. Will the SPD and the Greens allow this to happen?

There are already rumblings within the SPD. The introduction of a parental allowance, a basic child allowance, and a care allowance — none of this is mentioned anymore. The creation of affordable housing, the boost to the pension system seems as much out of reach as higher taxes for the wealthy.

The harmoniousness with which the coalition has governed during its first 100 days is by no means certain to continue.

This article was originally published in German.

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