2021 was the sixth hottest year on record, US studies say
January 14, 2022
Two separate studies showed that 2021 was among the warmest years in the overall record, which goes back to 1880. The data underscores the global climate crisis.
The impact of rising global temperatures have been felt in recent years, including record-shattering wildfires across Australia and SiberiaImage: Maksim Slutsky/AP/picture alliance
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The year 2021 was the sixth warmest year on record, according to an analysis of global temperature released on Thursday by two US government agencies.
The latest data, compiled by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), underscores the global climate crisis.
2021 tied with 2018 for sixth warmest, according to NASA, which uses a 30-year baseline period.
A separate analysis by NOAA showed 2021 average temperatures were 1.51 degrees Fahrenheit (0.84 Celsius) above the 20th-century average, putting last year in sixth place by itself, ahead of 2018.
"It's certainly warmer now than at any time in at least the past 2,000 years, and probably much longer," said Russell Vose, chief of climate monitoring for the NOAA.
"Of course, all this is driven by increasing concentrations of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide," he said, adding that 2022 would almost certainly rank among the top 10 hottest years.
"There's probably a 99 percent chance that 2022 will rank in the top 10, a 50-50 chance, maybe a little less, it'll rank in the top five, and a 10 percent chance it'll rank first" barring an unforeseen event like a major volcanic eruption or a large comet hitting Earth, Vose said.
Warm temperatures despite La Nina
Last year, global temperatures were dampened by the presence of La Nina in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
The La Nina phenomenon is the natural cooling of parts of the central Pacific that changes weather patterns globally and brings chilly deep ocean water to the surface.
It is the colder counterpart of the El Nino climate pattern which boosted global temperatures in 2016.
Climate scientists said 2021 was the hottest La Nina year on record.
The year did not represent a cooling off of human-caused climate change but provided more of the same heat.
"It's not quite as headline-dominating as being the warmest on record but give it another few years and we'll see another one of those" records, said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of the Berkeley Earth monitoring group which also ranked 2021 the sixth hottest.
"It's the long-term trend, and it's an indomitable march upward."
Antarctica: Mighty Thwaites Glacier threatens to melt
Global warming is threatening ice shelves linked to the Thwaites Glacier. If they fracture and break, much of the glacier could melt into the sea, causing a dramatic sea level rise.
Image: NASA/Zumapress/picture alliance
Thawing giant
Thwaites Glacier is one of the largest of its kind in Antarctica. Covering an area of 192,000 square kilometers, it is roughly the size of the UK. One third of the glacier consists of large floating ice platforms, or ice shelves. Increasingly, however, these platforms have been fracturing.
Image: NASA/Zumapress/picture alliance
Ice shelf could shatter like a windshield
Researchers warn that the mighty glacier could be undergoing dramatic change. It is possible that, within the next three to five years, a 45-kilometer-long ice shelf segment could shatter and break like a car window, researchers from the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration project say.
Image: NASA/AFP
Serious rise in sea level looms
The ice shelf currently prevents the gargantuan glacier from slipping into the sea. If it were to shatter, huge amounts of glacial ice could end up melting into the water. Much of the glacier would break up into floating icebergs, say scientists.
Image: M. DeFreitas /blickwinkel/imago images
No isolated event
It would not be the first incident of this kind. In July 2017, the vast A68 iceberg detached from the Larsen C ice shelf in West Antarctica. While icebergs break off constantly, the timing of the event — during the cold Antarctic winter months — baffled scientists. Many suspect global warming could be a factor.
Over the past 20 years, seven ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula have shattered, or drastically receded. This means more ice has melted into the sea, which has caused sea levels to rise.
Image: Michael S. Nolan/imago images
Warm water accelerates thaw
Climate change, or the warming of the sea more specifically, is to blame for the Thwaites Glacier melting. Warm water flowing beneath the ice shelves have caused large sections to thaw, forming glacier caves. This melting process has accelerated tremendously over the past 30 years. Scientists are closely monitoring the development.
Image: Michael S. Nolan/imago images
Breakup could trigger major sea level rise
Together, the melting Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier already account for a 10% rise in global sea levels. If the Thwaites Glacier were to break up entirely, releasing all its ice into the water, sea levels worldwide would rise by about 65 centimeters (25 inches).
Image: John Sonntag/Zumapress/picture alliance
'Doomsday Glacier'
The breakup of the Thwaites Glacier would trigger a dangerous chain reaction. Should it melt, other nearby glaciers (like the Pine Island Glacier, pictured) could follow. Vast swaths of the West Antarctica ice could break off, causing sea levels to rise by up to 3,3 meters. That’s why the Thwaites Glacier has been nicknamed the Doomsday Glacier.
Image: ESA/dpa/picture-alliance
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Planet may hit 1.5C by 2030s
The rising temperatures are largely the result of increases in the abundance of atmospheric greenhouse gases since the industrial revolution, which is mainly the result of human activity.
Scientists believe that at the current rate, the planet's temperature would rise by 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in the 2030s.
"But it's not the case that at 1.4 everything is hunky-dory and at 1.6 all hell has broken loose," said NASA climate expert Gavin Schmidt.
