Munich Security Report details fragile world order
Lewis Sanders IV
February 13, 2017
With the rise of populism threatening the international order, the report warns of an "illiberal moment" globally. A withdrawal of the US on the world stage could allow others to take advantage of the power vacuum.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Sputnik/M. Palinchak
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The Munich Security Conference (MSC) published its annual report on Monday, with the conference chairman saying there was greater instability today across the globe than there has been since the Second World War.
From a power vacuum caused by a possible US withdrawal from the global stage to the heightened threat of military escalation, the report entitled "Post-Truth, Post-West, Post-Order?" accentuates the threats to the international order in what MSC Chairman Wolfgang Ischinger described as an "illiberal moment."
"The international security environment is arguably more volatile today than at any point since World War II. Some of the most fundamental pillars of the West and of the liberal international order are weakening," said the MSC chairman, Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger.
"We may, then, be on the brink of a post-Western age, one in which non-Western actors are shaping international affairs, often in parallel or even to the detriment of precisely those multilateral frameworks that have formed the bedrock of the liberal international order since 1945," Ischinger said. "Are we entering a post-order world?"
Notably in the report, the ascendancy of populist rhetoric from positions of power has fundamentally shifted the discourse of liberal democracy and the principles that accompany it.
Trump: the wildcard
If Brexit, the British referendum on leaving the EU, was the catalyst for a revision of international relations, the election of US President Donald Trump marked its assured advancement.
In his inauguration speech, Trump professed a historical change in US relations with other countries, promising that his policies - both domestic and foreign - will prioritize American interests.
"We've made other countries rich while the wealth, strength, and confidence of our country has disappeared over the horizon … But that is the past. And now we are looking only to the future, Trump said during his inauguration speech. "From this moment on, it's going to be America first."
However, as the report points out, Trump failed to mention "democracy, liberty or human rights" in his inaugural address to the nation, marking a sharp contrast to his predecessors. "This does not bode well for liberal values around the world," the report said.
Since then, Trump's administration has promoted a momentous rebalancing of the global order through a myriad of policy maneuvers, including circumventing long-held diplomatic traditions, insidious criticism of America's traditional allies and barring citizens of seven Muslim-majority nations from entering the country.
Trump: Mogul, populist, president
Already a real estate magnate, best-selling author and reality TV star, Donald Trump is about to become the 45th US president. Often regarded as an outlandish, comic figure, Trump will soon move into the White House.
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The family, the empire
Surrounded by the ones he loves, Donald Trump with his wife, Melania, daughters Ivanka and Tiffany, his sons Eric and Donald, Jr., and grandchildren Kai and Donald John III. His three eldest children are senior vice presidents in the Trump organization.
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From millionaire to billionaire
This picture from 1984 shows Trump opening Harrah's at Trump Plaza, a casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey. It's one of the investments that helped turn Trump, already a millionaire thanks to cash from his father, into a billionaire.
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Off to a good start
Trump inherited the money he used to launch his real estate empire from his father, Frederick. He gave his son a million dollars to start and then, upon his death, left Donald and his three siblings $400 million.
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What's in a name? Billions.
Donald Trump aggressively invested the money and experienced the market's highs and lows. Long-term success came thanks to Trump Tower in New York City. Trump has said he's worth some $10 billion, but he has not released financial information to prove the claim. Experts estimate he's worth about a third of that.
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"Very good, very smart"
That's what Trump had to say about himself. He studied at the renowned Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and graduated with a bachelor's degree.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/B.J. Harpaz
Captain Trump
Before college, Trump was sent to a military academy at the age of 13 to learn discipline. By the time he graduated, he had earned an officer's rank at the academy. During his campaign for president, he said he enjoyed the school's structure and military culture.
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Heel spurs instead of Vietnam
Despite the military education, Trump did not serve in the Vietnam War. He received four deferments while studying and a fifth for bone spurs in his heels. Trump will be the first US president to enter the White House without having previously served in a public office or the military.
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Wife number one: Ivana
In 1977, Trump married Ivana Zelnuickova of what was then Czechoslovakia. The pair had three children together, Donald John, Jr., Ivanka Marie and Eric Fredrick. The marriage, however, was plagued with rumors of extra-marital affairs and ended in 1990. Ivana was the one who created Trump's nickname "The Donald."
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Family number two
Trump later married his second wife, Marla Maples. Maples gave birth to their daughter Tiffany in 1993.
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Girls, girls, girls
Trump seemed to enjoy being photographed with women other than his wife by his side. He often visited beauty pageants and posed with young models. From 1996 to 2015, he owned part of all the Miss Universe pageants. Trump would later come under fire for an audio recording of him saying his fame allowed him to grope women without fearing consequences.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/K. Lemm
The Art of the Deal
How do you make a quick million? Trump's best-seller "The Art of the Deal," which was part autobiography, part instruction manual for ambitious businessmen, tried to show readers the way. Already well-known, the book solidified Trump's spot in the public spotlight.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/M. Schwalm
Mixing business and entertainment
Like no other, Trump knew how to grab the public's attention, as seen here in a show for "World Wrestling Entertainment." His unique blend of business and entertainment acumen met in the reality TV show "The Apprentice" where candidates were hired and fired. Trump's favorite line from the show: "You're fired!"
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Trump's move into politics
Though he had previously had very little contact with governing or politics, Trump announced his presidential candidacy on July 16, 2015. He used "Make America Great Again" as a political slogan and during his election campaign insulted immigrants, Muslims, women and everyone running against him.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/J. Lane
Off to Washington
Whether the showman morphs into a statesman will be seen over Trump's four years in the White House. Views are split as he prepares to take office. But if his life so far is anything to go by, there is no telling what will be next.
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'Nothing is true and everything is possible'
Despite its deployment in eastern European nations after Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea, interest in "fake news" witnessed a fever-pitch in the wake of Trump's electoral victory in November.
Disinformation and its ability to influence political structures and undermine traditional media narratives has proven to be a post-truth feature of a political environment created by an interconnected voter base, and one that has consequential repercussions on security.
"The main threat is that citizens' trust in media and politicians might further erode, creating a vicious cycle that threatens liberal democracy," the report said.
"Yet, they [states] cannot forbid 'fake news' or introduce 'truth agencies' lest they turn illiberal themselves. Preventing a 'post-truth' world, in which 'nothing is true and everything is possible,' is a task for society as a whole," it added, referring to lawmakers' attempts to criminalize the production and distribution of disinformation.
Syria: No end in sight
Since the onset of the Syrian conflict in 2011, more than 300,000 people have been killed and half the population displaced, according to UN figures.
Despite numerous attempts to secure a nationwide ceasefire and prevent the escalation of hostilities, the past year saw the Syrian army launch a brutal campaign, backed by Russia, to reclaim the city of Aleppo, leaving thousands dead in the process.
"Key Western actors stood by as Aleppo fell, watching what a UN spokesperson described as a 'complete meltdown of humanity,'" the report said.
What started off as protests calling for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down has transformed into a protracted conflict involving domestic actors, militant groups, neighboring states and world powers, including the US, Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
"As numerous actors are meddling in the crises in Syria and the region, while the West attempts to somehow muddle through, the Middle East's post-Western age might have already begun," the report said.
How did Europe's refugee crisis start?
From escalating violence in the Middle East and Africa to incoherent asylum policy at home - DW looks at how the EU has found itself in the midst of a refugee crisis.
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Fleeing war and poverty
In late 2014, with the war in Syria approaching its fourth year and Islamic State making gains in the north of the country, the exodus of Syrians intensified. At the same time, others were fleeing violence and poverty in countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Eritrea, Somalia, Niger and Kosovo.
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Seeking refuge over the border
Vast numbers of Syrian refugees had been gathering in border-town camps in neighboring Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan since 2011. By 2015, with the camps full to bursting and residents often unable to find work or educate their children, more and more people decided to seek asylum further afield.
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A long journey on foot
In 2015 an estimated 1.5 million people made their way on foot from Greece towards western Europe via the "Balkan route". The Schengen Agreement, which allows passport-free travel within much of the EU, was called into question as refugees headed towards the wealthier European nations.
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Desperate sea crossings
Tens of thousands of refugees were also attempting the perilous journey across the Mediterranean on overcrowded boats. In April 2015, 800 people of various nationalities drowned when a boat traveling from Libya capsized off the Italian coast. This was to be just one of many similar tragedies - by the end of the year, nearly 4,000 refugees were reported to have died attempting the crossing.
Image: Reuters/D. Zammit Lupi
Pressure on the borders
Countries along the EU's external border struggled to cope with the sheer number of arrivals. Fences were erected in Hungary, Slovenia, Macedonia and Austria. Asylum laws were tightened and several Schengen area countries introduced temporary border controls.
Image: picture-alliance/epa/B. Mohai
Closing the open door
Critics of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's "open-door" refugee policy claimed it had made the situation worse by encouraging more people to embark on the dangerous journey to Europe. By September 2016, Germany had also introduced temporary checks on its border with Austria.
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Striking a deal with Turkey
In early 2016, the EU and Turkey signed an agreement under which refugees arriving in Greece could be sent back to Turkey. The deal has been criticized by human rights groups and came under new strain following a vote by the European Parliament in November to freeze talks on Turkey's potential accession to the EU.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/A. Altan
No end in sight
With anti-immigration sentiment in Europe growing, governments are still struggling to reach a consensus on how to handle the continuing refugee crisis. Attempts to introduce quotas for the distribution of refugees among EU member states have largely failed. Conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere show no signs coming to an end, and the death toll from refugee sea crossings is on the rise.
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The future of terrorism
In the past year, security vulnerabilities spawned by the Syrian conflict have metastasized throughout the region and the globe, most notably the proliferation of "Islamic State"-inspired terrorist attacks in Western nations.
From a state of emergency in France to raids in Germany, Europe's response in the wake of attacks in Berlin, Nice and Brussels has been uneven across the bloc as individual member states developed ways to enhance precautionary measures to counter threats.
According to the report, it is necessary for the EU to cooperate as a unified bloc on a range of challenges posed by the threat of radicalization and terrorism.
"Only by further stepping up EU anti-terror cooperation and capabilities will European states be able to rise to what will likely be a long-term jihadist challenge," the report said.
"Main reasons for this include the growing potential recruitment pool in Europe; more jihadist entrepreneurs and local network builders, including an increasingly strong crime-terror nexus; the ongoing conflicts in the Muslim world, which can be used for recruitment and propaganda; and the clandestine communication opportunities the Internet provides," it added.
Preparing for dialogue
The Munich Security Report offers a glimpse into the challenges that threaten to upend the international order established in the aftermath of World War II, which left millions killed and displaced across the globe.
Whether questioning the existence of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in its current form or forsaking traditional alliances for new ones, the current state of affairs has shifted global and regional dynamics between nation states.
But the report, published ahead of the Munich Security Conference, offers world leaders a starting point for dialogue on the world's most pertinent security and defense challenges.
"I hope that we will not mince words and speak honestly about our disagreements as well as about our common interests and values," Ischinger said earlier this month.
The Caucasus to the Koreas: A world of frozen conflicts
Frozen conflicts rarely make the headlines, but they can be just as destabilizing as active wars. When they heat up, they can thrust whole regions into conflict and even draw in global powers.
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Eastern Ukraine/Crimea
In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and started providing support to rebels in eastern Ukraine. The conflict in Ukraine quickly gained an international dimension and triggered a renewed standoff between Russia and the West that has extended as far afield as Syria.
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Korean Peninsula
North and South Korea are technically still at war, having signed no peace treaty to end the Korean War. The demilitarized zone, or DMZ, is a 2-kilometer (1.2-mile) strip separating the countries. The border is one of the tensest and most heavily militarized in the world.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/J. Martin
South Ossetia and Abkhazia
South Ossetia and Abkhazia are post-Soviet breakaway republics outside the sovereign control of Georgia. They are backed and recognized by Russia and only a handful of other states. The conflict turned hot during 2008 Russian-Georgian War, which effectively kicked Tbilisi's forces out of the republics.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/K. Basayev
Cyprus
A 1974 invasion by Turkey in response to a coup attempt to join the island with Greece split the island between the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus in the ethnically Greek south. The two communities' leaders are engaged in complicated reunification talks. Both sides have expressed hope for a settlement this year.
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Nagorno-Karabakh
Azerbaijan and Armenia went to war over Nagorno-Karabakh until the two sides reached a truce in 1994. Since then, the territory - ethnically Armenian but formally Azerbaijani - has been under the control of local Armenian forces and the Armenian military. The conflict has had periodic violent flare-ups, most recently with a bout of fierce fighting in April.
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Western Sahara
Morocco annexed Western Sahara after colonial power Spain withdrew in 1975, setting off a conflict with the Polisario Front, which demands self-determination. In 1991, a UN-brokered ceasefire put a halt to fighting. However, a promised referendum on self-determination has failed to materialize, threatening to upend a shaky peace.
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Kashmir
Kashmir is divided between India and Pakistan, which have fought two wars over the predominantly Muslim region. India accuses Pakistan of arming rebels fighting for independence or union with Pakistan. The emotionally charged issue is especially dangerous given that both countries have nuclear weapons.
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Trans-Dniester
Trans-Dniester is a pro-Russia breakaway region of Moldova. The sliver of territory bordering on Ukraine split from Moldova, triggering a 1992 war. Russia maintains peacekeepers in the region. Some analysts say Trans-Dniester is a potential hot spot used by Russia to keep Moldova from becoming closer to the West.
