On September 15, 2020, foreign ministers and leaders from the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel gathered with US President Donald Trump at the White House to formalize the Abraham Accords — an agreement to normalize relations between the governments. Morocco joined the accords in December 2020, and Sudan signed in January 2021, although ongoing political instability in the country has delayed full implementation.  

These agreements marked the first normalization efforts between Israel and Arab states since its peace treaties with Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994. They also broke with the established regional consensus that normalization would require resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and implementing a two-state solution. 

"The integration of Israel into the Arab world was originally intended by the signatory countries not only as a way to gain greater relevance with [the US] and reflect specific national interests but also as a credible tool of deterrence against the perceived threat from Iran," Emily Tasinato, a researcher and analyst whose work focuses on the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula, told DW.

In 2020, the Arab world regarded Iran as a destabilizing force with its proxy militias Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and Yemen meant that the country was still regarded as the main destabilizing actor in the region. 

2023 — and beyond 

The Hamas-led terror attacks in Israel on October 7, 2023, left nearly 1,200 people dead. About 250 people were abducted, of whom close to 50 remain in the Gaza Strip, with around 20 of them believed to still be alive.  

Since the October 7 attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition have intensified their rejection of a two-state solution while waging a nearly two-year war in the Gaza Strip that has displaced 1.9 million people and led to widespread famine. More than 64,500 people, including an estimated 19,000 children, have been killed, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza, though international researchers estimate a much higher death toll. The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu on charges of war crimes, alongside his former defense minister and a member of the Hamas leadership who was killed in Gaza. 

Israel has also opened multiple fronts in its regional war. In 2024, the country responded to cross-border strikes from the Hezbollah group by launching operations in Lebanon with the stated objective of removing the Iran-backed organization, whose military wing is classified as a terror organization by the United States, Germany and several Middle Eastern governments. Israel is also pursuing ongoing military operations in Syria, as well as exchanging fire with the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have targeted international shipping on the Red Sea and facilities within Israeli territory. In June, Israel engaged Iran in a 12-day war. 

'In uncharted territory' 

Regional governments are considerably less worried now about Iran and its proxies than they were in 2020.

"Five years later, the situation appears to have been reversed," Tasinato said. "Iran has become increasingly vulnerable, experiencing military weakening and facing pressure on its regional influence. 

"Although mistrust continues to mark relations between Iran and Gulf Arab states. Now Israel increasingly appears to be the 'rogue' actor." 

On September 9, Israel conducted drone strikes targeting the political leadership of Hamas in Doha, the capital of Qatar, which has played a leading role in mediating talks toward a ceasefire and the release of the remaining hostages held in Gaza. The strikes killed five lower-ranking Hamas officials and one Qatari security agent. 

"We are in uncharted territory," Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, told DW. 

Following the strike in Doha, the United Arab Emirates barred Israeli defense firms from participating in a Dubai air show, citing security concerns. Emirati officials have also criticized Israeli plans to annex large parts of the occupied West Bank, which they warn could jeopardize bilateral relations and US efforts to expand the accords. 

No new signatories 

Since the Abraham Accords were signed five years ago, no other Arab country has joined, though Trump has pushed for deals with Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Syria. Israelis who support the accords have pointed to new regional initiatives, increased tourism and expanded trade with partner countries. 

Before October 7, 2023, Israel and the United Arab Emirates, in particular, signed several deals after normalizing relations, such as a five-year agreement to share knowledge in agriculture in 2022. According to the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics, trade of goods between Israel and the United Arab Emirates totaled about $3.2 billion in 2024. 

The growing conflicts in the Middle East, however, seem to have made other regional governments reluctant to enter into similar arrangements. With Israel still conducting military operations in neighboring Syria and Lebanon, it is unlikely that those governments will pursue full diplomatic ties anytime soon, though US officials remain optimistic that a security deal might be reached between Israel and Syria in 2025. Saudi Arabia had been close to signing a deal before the October 7 attacks and war that followed, but has since rejected closer ties with Israel as long as there is no viable effort to reach a two-state solution. 

"The cost of joining the Abraham Accords has risen exponentially for any Arab state," Ozcelik said. "The excruciating suffering of Gazans, the threat of annexation of even more of the West Bank and now the airstrikes that targeted Hamas officials on Qatari sovereign territory risk hollowing out any prospect of normalizing with Israel," she added. 

Though neither she nor Tasinato considers a full Emirati withdrawal from the accords likely, Ozcelik said: "The UAE and Bahrain face pressure to defend their signatory status and surely rue Israeli officials for putting them in such an unenviable position." 

And that could prove disappointing for Trump, as well. "The Abraham Accords are touted as the jewel in the foreign policy crown of US President Trump," Ozcelik said. "In his second term, despite resounding confidence in the White House that the accords will expand under the right mix of incentive and pressure, the reality has come nowhere close. The looming risk is that the policies of the current Israeli government will not only undermine but erode Trump’s hard-won foreign policy win." 

Edited by: M Gagnon  

Editor's note: This article has been changed on September 17, 2025, to correct statements regarding the Misgav Institute and its position on Gaza.