As the district of Sonneberg in Thuringia readies for runoff local elections on Sunday, a far-right populist  Alternative for Germany (AfD) candidate is vying to become the party's first-ever district administrator or county commissioner anywhere in Germany.

That's led the German government's special commissioner for tackling antisemitism to warn that the party's recent successes could be linked to a rise in antisemitism. 

"Dissatisfaction with the overall development of society actually manifests itself more strongly there than in the west [of Germany]," Felix Klein told German news agency dpa on Friday, in reference to the Sonneberg town and voting district in the state of Thuringia in former East Germany. He said that history showed often clear links between social dissatisfaction and antisemitism.

"People want to unload their anger, their discontent," Klein said. "Even if that's not directly antisemitic, these patterns of explanation are always antisemitic at their core." 

Klein said politicians needed to take the AfD's rising popularity of late more seriously — some polls put the party second overall nationwide among German political groups, albeit on not more than 20% support.

"The way government works must be better communicated generally," he said. "And it also needs to be made clear to people that populists don't offer answers." 

What's at stake in Sunday's district election? 

Voters in Sonneberg, a town of around 22,000 people and an administrative district (Landkreis in German) with a population nearer 55,000 not that far from the Czech border, will participate in a runoff vote on Sunday to choose a new district administrator, a role similar to that of a county commissioner in the United States. 

The position itself, though the highest political office in that small arena, is of only moderate consequence and carries rather limited power. Should AfD candidate Robert Sesselmann win, many of his duties would entail implementing at the local level laws from either the state or the federal parliament that his party will in all likelihood have voted against. 

Nevertheless, the AfD has never won such a post anywhere in Germany, and its chances of doing so on Sunday arguably appear better than ever before. For most roles in German politics, coalition-building is required, condemning the AfD to the opposition because other German parties have said they will not ally with them under any circumstances. But for the district administrator position, there can be only one winner, meaning the AfD could claim the post simply by beating its remaining runoff opponent.

The AfD itself is trying to bill Sunday's ballot as something akin to a wave beginning to break, frequently talking about an impending "change of politics" or possibly a "political change" in Germany.

"Do not stay home, go and vote. Let's start the urgently needed political change in Sonneberg's district authority," the party wrote in a social media appeal to voters. "The political change is in reach! Sonneberg must become an example for Germany!" 

Party leader Alice Weidel also appeared in a party political broadcast, urging voters: "Write history and vote for Robert Sesselmann, the first AfD district administrator." 

The AfD pays little heed to the rather local role Sonneberg is seeking to win, campaigning on slogans concerning federal policy that would not be his concern rather than local issues. Two of their most recent social media appeals say Sonneberg stands for "an energy policy that's sensible and understanding" and for "peace negotiations [between Russia and Ukraine] and an end to the sanctions." 

These might very well be two policy lines that help explain the AfD's recent uptick in the polls among some voters, as inflation and higher energy costs take their toll, but they are not issues a district administrator has the power to influence.

Does the AfD have any real chance of winning? 

That question is unusually difficult to answer with any confidence, with seemingly valid evidence pointing in both directions. 

Sesselmann fared best of all candidates in the first round, winning around 46.7% of the vote. But he fell just short of the outright majority needed to claim the post without a runoff. 

His rival, Jürgen Köpper of the center-right Christian Democrats (also in opposition at the national level like the AfD), was a fairly distant second on 35.7%. That would seem to suggest a solid advantage for Sesselmann.

However, voter turnout was barely 50%. So Köpper and the CDU might hold out hope of gains on two fronts: first from supporters of other more left-leaning mainstream parties, and second from voters who did not go to the polls in the first round but are motivated to vote in order to keep AfD politicians out of office.

Both the CDU and the AfD have been trying to stress the importance of going to vote, with mobilization very often the decisive factor in such municipal elections that tend to get the least local and particularly national attention in a very busy electoral calendar in Germany's federal system.

Thuringia, and Sonneberg, already had something of a reputation

The vote's taking place in what's seen as the AfD's heartland in Germany. 

The party consistently polls far better, sometimes as much as twice as well, in the five states that used to make up Communist East Germany as it does elsewhere. 

Thuringia is the westernmost of these, with Sonneberg right by the state's southern border to Bavaria.

In the last federal election in 2021, the AfD was the strongest single party within Thuringia. Exactly 24% of voters cast their second ballot (cast for a party preference at the national level, the first is cast for a preferred local candidate) for the AfD, just ahead of the center-left Social Democrats of Chancellor Olaf Scholz on 23.4%. As those numbers suggest, the vote was split broadly with no dominant party. 

The fact that Thuringia's state chapter of the AfD is led by Bernd Höcke, one of the most outspoken and radical members of the top tier of the party, has also put the region in the media spotlight in recent years.

msh/sms (AFP, dpa, Reuters)

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