Political instability in former French colonies in Africa is fast gaining prominence with the latest military takeover in Gabon.

Gabonese President Ali Bongo Ondimba was all but set to extend his 14-year stay in power after the electoral commission declared him the winner of last Saturday's presidential election.

That would have further extended his family's 56-year hold on power in the country. But the soldiers who seized power on Wednesday in the former French colony said the elections "did not meet the conditions for a transparent, credible and inclusive ballot so much hoped for by the people of Gabon."

"Today our country is going through a grave political crisis," the military men who introduced themselves as members of the CTRI (Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions) said in their live broadcast announcing the coup.

They claimed there had been "irresponsible, unforeseeable governance that has resulted in the steady degradation of social cohesion which risks leading the country to chaos. We have decided to defend peace by putting an end to the regime in power."

Coups driven by hunger for change

Nathalie Mezo, a women's rights activist from Gabon, described the coup as predictable. "The Gabonese population is hungry for change! That's why most people, even if it's a military coup, are relieved that 60 years of family regime and dynasty may finally come to an end," she told DW.

Mezo believes the coup was prepared long in advance. "If we citizens already know that the [election] result will definitely be in favor of the outgoing president, then the army knows all the more!"

"This this has always been the case since 1993, but in the last 14 years or two terms it has been even more violent. In 2009 and 2016, all elections were violently contested. So this scenario was absolutely predictable!" Mezo added.

This marks the first time the army has turned against the Bongo dynasty, which has been in power since 1967.

Jocksy Ondo Louemba, a Gabonese journalist living in exile, told DW that "Omar Bongo [Ali Bongo’s father] was someone who redistributed a lot, a kind of big businessman. All of Gabon was his clientele. He was a man who was very much focused on clientelism: he bought political opponents."

But Louemba said Ali Bongo was different. "He was very brittle; he was against dialogue. He thought he could achieve anything by force and police. But, you know, Napoleon said: you can do anything with bayonets, except to sit on them."

Francophone Africa losing hope in democracy

Unlike Anglophone Africa, which currently has a comparatively stable political climate, Western-style democracy has not gained solid footing in Francophone Africa.

"There is a feeling in Francophone African countries that the French always sided with the people in power, regardless of whether they were popular," said Senegalese human rights lawyer, Ibrahima Kane, of the Open Society Foundation. "There is always a very strong connection between France and the government who, in many situations, are not very friendly with their own population." 

He added that the same anger is being directed at France-supported, democratically elected governments that enable military interventions.

In Niger, where soldiers removed President Mohamed Bazoum from power in July, thousands celebrated on the streets, echoing discontent for democratically-elected governments — just as in Gabon.

Nigerian governance analyst, Ovigwe Eguegu, said elected leaders in former French colonies have done little to improve citizens' lives.

"That's why you have these populist coups. These are populist coups, we have to be frank," he told DW.

For Eguegu, if people do not see the benefits of a democratically elected government, then there would be very little support for them in times of crisis.

"Why should they just engage in the exercise of voting and nothing changes? For them, the [coups] are seen as a way to shock the system to see if that could lead to a much better outcome," he said, although Eguegu conceded that military leadership has rarely improved the situation.

Bram Posthumus, an independent journalist reporting on West Africa, put it more directly.

"One of the things these coups in succession demonstrate is the quite clear notion that the experiment with Western-style democracy in the Sahel, at least, has been a complete failure," he told DW.

But in some instances, infighting among the ruling political class has triggered these coups. Days before Niger's Bazoum was overthrown, he was reportedly planning to sack the current coup leader.

Disagreements between soldiers in Burkina Faso also triggered a second coup after the military ousted President Roch Marc Kabore in 2022. 

Endemic poverty also to blame

Some experts have also blamed the recent coups on endemic poverty in many former French colonies.

It was only in 2020 that the much-awaited bill to ratify the end of the CFA franc, a West African currency controlled by the French treasury, was adopted. It has taken 75 years for that to happen.

France has been accused of exploiting the natural resources in these countries, while struggling to address the daily economic problems of citizens.

Posthumus said with such growing frustrations, citizens often lose trust and patience for democratic processes.

"Democracy didn't address any of the basic problems people had, be it violence, be it poverty and lack of economic opportunity. And these juntas are very adept at making people believe that they will solve these problems. They will not," he said.

Anti-French sentiment partly to blame for coups

Since 2020, anti-French sentiment seems to have triggered coups in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and most recently Niger — or at least contributed to them.

Kane, of the Open Society Foundation, told DW that these sentiments seeking to break away from perceived French influence are real.

"The perception that the French have about our citizens has never changed. They always consider us second-class citizens. They always treat Africans, particularly Francophone Africans, in a certain way. And West Africa wants that situation to change," he said.

But African affairs analyst Emmanuel Bensah, who specializes in the affairs of regional bloc ECOWAS, told DW that anticolonial sentiments do not fully explain the recent coups in the region. 

"There has been a colonial issue with the French and British in West Africa. But that has not meant that each of the member states are taking up to arms with soldiers. You will see the Anglophone countries haven't picked up arms and yet we are in the same sub-region," he said.

Lack of resilient governance systems, institutions, media

Bensah's concern is that Francophone Africa has yet to fully develop resilient governance systems and institutions to resolve developmental challenges. 

"If you look at the countries Ghana, Nigeria, Gambia, Liberia, Sierra Leone, no matter how poor they may be, there's a civil society actively working on the ground together with a vibrant media that seeks to hold at least the duty bearers accountable," he said. 

Bensah said Anglophone Africa was making tremendous advances in amplifying different voices, which is lacking in Francophone Africa.

"The challenge has always been because, for the longest time, a lot of things were dictated by France, which did not allow for room for local civil society to grow," he said.

Rising insecurity in the Sahel a 'global threat': UN

The Sahel region has been engulfed in insurgencies since 2012, starting in Mali. It spread to Burkina Faso and Niger in 2015 and now states on the Gulf of Guinea are suffering sporadic attacks.

According to the United Nations, the rising insecurity in the Sahel poses a "global threat" as the humanitarian situation there worsens with thousands of people fleeing.

Western countries, including France, have unsuccessfully tried to address insecurity in the region. In Mali and Burkina Faso, their military missions have been asked to leave. 

ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West African States, is under pressure to stem the tide of coups. But its response has normally involved imposing sanctions.

Reforming regional blocs

The West African bloc's recent decision to activate a standby force for a potential military intervention in Niger has divided regional governments and is problematic for analysts like Eguegu.

"ECOWAS would need to actually redesign its playbook when it comes to dealing with unconstitutional change in government," he said.

Bensah added that the bloc should rather help former French colonies strengthen their democratic institutions.

"They [Francophone West Africa] need to identify which civil society organizations they need to start talking to and then invite them to start building the capacity," he said.

Edited by: Keith Walker and Cai Nebe

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