Riyah James, a teacher at a primary school in Surulere, Lagos, has to spend more on transport than ever before. "There's hardly anything left of my salary," the young Nigerian told DW. "Gas prices have skyrocketed. Sometimes the bus conductor demands higher prices practically overnight, and I don't have enough money with me," she explained.

"I can hardly afford to shop at the market, and all customers have this problem" of dwindling funds, she adds — not just the poorer ones. Around 52% of Nigerians struggle to make ends meet, according to a 2025 World Bank report. 

Everyday life has become a test of endurance for most people in Nigeria. Food prices are at their highest level in over 20 years, and highinflation and skyrocketing transportation costs are exacerbating the cost of living crisis.

Economic progress but pains remain

The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, a deteriorating security situation, and supply chain disruptions caused by Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine are contributing to the dire economic situation.

Nigeria implemented difficult but necessary reforms in 2023 to stabilize the macroeconomy, according to the World Bank. The resulting price pressure has further eroded households' purchasing power.

Although recent macroeconomic reforms have led to economic stabilization,  inflation remains high.

"I'm barely surviving," Uche Emmanuel, who works at a store that sells games for entertainment, said. "It's no longer enough for three meals a day," he told DW.

Emmanuel, who also runs a photo studio in Lagos, complained about the overall business environment.

"I don't sell anything for days. Not a single customer comes in, sometimes even on weekends. How are shopowners supposed to pay their employees?" The president is not doing a good job, he added.

In 2024, the average inflation rate in Nigeria was 31.4%. In 2025, it was around 23%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics in Nigeria.

The Central Bank of Nigeria is now forecasting economic growth of more than 4% for 2026 and a decline in inflation to around 12.94%, citing stable foreign exchange markets and rising oil production driven by reforms.

So there is cautious optimism after two years of comprehensive reforms by President Bola Tinubu, who took office in May 2023. 

On the road to recovery

"Tinubu took two decisive steps. He cut the largest subsidies: the currency and gasoline. The naira was regulated instead of the market determining the price," Ebipere Clark, an economic expert at the African Research Institute (APRI) based in Berlin and Nigeria, told DW.

"This had a massive negative impact," he adds. But it was not carried out with sensitivity and caution, and the currency rapidly lost value.

In addition, there were cuts in energy price subsidies. Transportation costs rose so high that civil servants no longer went to work five days a week,  according to Clark. All of this led to high inflation in 2024 and 2025. "The president took extreme measures."

This could perhaps have been done gradually, the economic expert explained. However, he said he agreed with President Tinubu's approach because the situation had been even worse prior to this step.

"The government slowed down the economy and companies left Nigeria. We are now in a better position and companies are coming back to invest. There are opportunities for growth. We are in a transition phase, and that means [economic] recovery."

Prices have also stabilized somewhat, according to Ikemesit Effiong, head of SBM Intelligence, a Nigerian market research company specializing in geopolitical research, market information, and strategic consulting.

"When it comes to fuel, Nigerians are, of course, paying more for gasoline and diesel on average than in the past. But the regulation and liberalization of the market has led to products being available throughout the year," he told DW. This is almost unprecedented in Nigeria's recent history, he noted. 

Cost of living: the biggest challenge

The government's biggest challenge is the cost of living, which must be addressed in the next reforms, says Effiong.

Nigeria still has a lot of work to do on inflation. Food imports, especially wheat and grain products, play an important role, according to the analyst.

"This has been influenced by global geopolitical developments, particularly the war in Ukraine, which has led to a rise in grain prices worldwide."

Another reason is the security situation in the country, with many farming areas in Nigeria disproportionately affected by the country's security problems. "Farmers have been kidnapped or killed, they have been targeted by militant groups, bandit gangs, jihadist groups, or simply criminal gangs."

In general, much of production is blocked due to supply chain issues, Effiong says. Attempting to bring these goods to market by land is difficult due to poor infrastructure. But many transport companies have also become targets of these gangs.  "This has, of course, also had an impact on the food supply."

Currently, service prices are also rising. "The biggest factor for most people is rent. These rent increases should be seen as a coping strategy for the general rise in the cost of living in the country."

Despite the economic hurdles, Effiong remains optimistic. "If some of the reforms, if implemented, are pursued by the government, they should actually help in the long term."

But at the same time, he has doubts. As the 2027 presidential elections approach, politicians will focus more on securing their re-election than on ensuring good governance, according to Effiong.

Olisa Chukwumah in Lagos contributed to this article.

This article was originally written in German.