In the two years since the simmering conflict between the generals of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces erupted into war, Sudan has been on a downward spiral on many levels.

According to the United Nations, the country in northeastern Africa — rich in gold, oil and fertile grounds — has been plunged into one of the world's largest humanitarian and displacement crises. Of the population of 51 million, 64% now depend on humanitarian assistance and some 12 million have been displaced.

Sudanese women and girls have been particularly affected by the crisis, as they not only make up most of the displaced but also suffer from widespread sexual assault and gang rape.

Estimates on the death toll remain difficult due to ongoing fighting, but latest numbers by international aid organizations have jumped from around 40,000 to 150,000.

As the war enters its third year on April 15, the country increasingly risks being split into two rival administrations.

For Hager Ali, a researcher at the German think tank GIGA Institute for Global and Area Studies, this would limit the hope for an end to the violence even further.

"We have to look at a time horizon of 20 years or more. Sudan does not just need a peace deal, as the schisms between the center of the country and the periphery, ethnicities, religions and tribes have deepened," she told DW.

"Problems with federalism and the political system were also brewing for decades and will continue to sabotage peace, if not addressed."

Why did the war start?

In October 2021, a military coup led by General Abdel-Fattah Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, and supported by his deputy and head of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, deposed Sudan's transitional government which was tasked with forming a democratic road map.

However, after Burhan failed to create a civilian-led-government in close cooperation with a military-led Supreme Council under the lead of Dagalo, both generals fell out over the integration of the paramilitary RSF into the SAF in mid-April 2023.

"The war started with a big stalemate in Sudan's capital Khartoum, where fighting devolved into an urban trench war that then sprawled across the country," said Ali.

Earlier this year the SAF recaptured Khartoum, and they now control most of the country's north and east, and the central city of Wad Madani in the widely destroyed agricultural region.

Dagalo and his RSF, which emerged from the notorious Janjaweed militia, have emerged as major force in Sudan's western Darfur region.

Both sides continue to besiege several refugee camps in Darfur's capital, El Fasher, where famine and constant shelling are killing civilians, according to harrowing reports from eyewitnesses, international aid organizations and the UN.

Why hasn't the war ended yet?

According to the International Rescue Committee, a global NGO that responds to the world's worst humanitarian crises, Sudan's conflict dynamics have grown more complex in the past 24 months.

"The conflict is drawing in more groups, which means that a peace deal will need to address diverse interests, and hence will be more difficult to broker and sustain," said Alexandra Janecek, a spokesperson for the NGO.

In addition, regional and international backers "are pumping weapons into Sudan which is destabilizing Sudan and the region," she added.

The Sudanese Armed Forces rely on the political backing and military support by Egypt and Qatar. The Rapid Support Forces are allegedly supported by arms deliveries from the United Arab Emirates through neighboring Chad.

The UAE, however, has denied the allegations even though evidence in the form of UAE-produced arms appears to indicate the opposite.

Sudan's civil society a lifeline for millions

Some 9 million Sudanese have fled to other areas of the country, and more than 3.3 million have left for Egypt, Libya, Chad or South Sudan. There, they face their own set of challenges including violence, lack of humanitarian aid, visa issues and insecurity.

Those who have stayed despite the ongoing conflict suffer not only from violence and hunger but also from the largely collapsed infrastructure, including a broken-down economy and health system.

According to Sudan's Central Bank, the Sudanese pound has collapsed and sent prices of goods in the markets skyrocketing by more than 142% in 2024.

Meanwhile, Sudan's civil society has turned into a lifeline for the population. A country-wide network of so-called emergency rooms has been helping civilians with information on evacuation routes, medical care and basic needs. The loosely connected groups emerged from Sudan's opposition movement that played a key role in ousting longtime ruler Omar Al-Bashir in 2019.

"One of the strengths of Sudan's opposition movement was always its heterogeneity," Tareq Sydiq, a protest researcher and author of the book "The New Protest Culture," told DW, adding that "the movement consisted of traditional political parties, labor unions, professional associations and a wide range of clandestine resistance committees."

Since the outbreak of war in April 2023, these groups have "reduced the scope of their political demands and focused on the war and protecting civilian communities instead," Sadiq said.

In his view, this is a "classical resistance repertoire that aims at mitigating the effects of war, but also at maintaining some element of the social organization for better times that might come at some point."

For Michelle D'Arcy, the Sudan country director for humanitarian organization Norwegian People's Aid, the efforts of the Sudanese civil society continue to serve as spark of hope.

"There are inspiring groups of youth and women who have really stepped it up, calling for peace, a ceasefire and keep pushing to end the war through a political process while they continue to provide life-saving services in their communities," she said. "Yet they've also faced challenges around polarization, limited civic space and access to resources."

Janecek of the International Rescue Committee added that programs that were once "a lifeline to millions of Sudanese" were closing. "At least 60% of the 1,400 community soup kitchens that served an estimated 2 million people are no longer able to operate," she said. The main reason for this is a lack of funding.

Sudan in the 'grip of a humanitarian crisis'

According to the UN, of the required $4.2 billion (€3.7 billion) needed to provide humanitarian aid in 2025, only 6.3% has been received.

The situation is further exacerbated by the recent US decision to cut foreign aid spending. In 2024, US funds accounted for nearly half of all humanitarian assistance in Sudan.

"Sudan remains in the grip of a humanitarian crisis of staggering proportions," Edem Wosornu, of the UN aid coordination office OCHA, told the UN Security Council in January — with the "man-made crisis" seemingly far from over.

Edited by: Martin Kuebler