The surprise, swift collapse of Bashar Assad's regime in Syria has been met with cautious optimism by many in Iran, where those disillusioned with their own authoritarian Islamic clerical regime see parallels between their struggles and those of the Syrian people. 

For Iranians, Assad's fall is significant because Syria has been a cornerstone of Tehran's regional strategy, symbolizing not only geopolitical influence but also a shared model of authoritarian resilience.

The reverberations of developments in Syria are therefore being felt across Iran's social and political landscape. 

Assad's ouster has revived hope among Iranians for potential change at home, especially after the Iranian government's brutal crackdown on the "Women, Life, Freedom" movement, which left hundreds dead and thousands imprisoned.

The situation has even prompted Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to make a public statement.

"Anyone whose analysis or statements dishearten the people is committing a crime and will be dealt with. Some do this from abroad using Persian-language media, but no one inside the country should engage in such behavior," Khamenei warned last week.

His remarks underline the regime's concerns about a domino effect, particularly as Assad's ouster highlights vulnerabilities in regimes that suppress dissent and rely heavily on external support.

The Iranian leadership may fear that similar destabilizing factors, such as widespread economic hardship and waning regional alliances, could resonate domestically and threaten its own stability.

Regime's supporters 'in shock'

Hossein Razzagh, a political activist and former prisoner who has been detained multiple times since the Green Movement protests in 2009, believes Assad's downfall has primarily unsettled the staunchest supporters of the Islamic Republic.

These supporters, often comprising families of the regime's elite and those with ties to the military and clerical establishment, are deeply invested in the regime's survival and have been shaken by the loss of one of its key regional allies.

"The collapse of Assad has left the regime's hardline supporters in shock," Razzagh told DW, pointing to reactions among the families of those who died fighting for the regime in Syria, known in Iran as the "Defenders of the Shrine."

Razzagh said, "This situation has shaken the propaganda machine of the Islamic Republic. Many of its die-hard supporters are now questioning if Iran itself is on the verge of collapse."

He added that the regime's current loss of credibility among its most loyal followers is unprecedented, even when compared to events like the 2009 Green Movement, the 2019 fuel protests, or the aftermath of the downing of the Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752.

"The psychological state of society is such that any spark, whether Khamenei's death or another significant setback, could signal the beginning of the end for the regime," he said.

Legitimacy eroding from within

Hassan Asadi Zeidabadi, another Tehran-based political activist and an advocate for boycotting elections, emphasized the growing domestic discontent with the government's inefficiency and corruption. "What led to Assad's downfall was a crisis of legitimacy and incompetence," he said. "The same is true for the Iranian government, which is increasingly failing to meet even the basic needs of its citizens."

Zeidabadi highlighted issues such as fuel shortages, power outages, internet restrictions and severe pollution, citing recent examples like prolonged blackouts in major cities and record-high air pollution levels in Tehran.

These ongoing crises have fueled public anger and deepened discontent with the government. Zeidabadi pointed to historical parallels, noting, "The nationalization of oil in Iran inspired similar movements in Egypt, while the Green Movement in 2009 played a role in sparking the Arab Spring. Likewise, the Arab Spring influenced the leaders of the Green Movement, ultimately leading to their house arrest."

However, he argued that Iran might not necessarily follow Syria's trajectory, adding, "While the geopolitical and historical dynamics of the Middle East create interlinked destinies, this does not automatically place Iran in the domino effect."

Deepened public disillusionment with the regime

Mehdi Mahmoudian, a political activist and former political prisoner, pointed to the Islamic Republic's diminished credibility and effectiveness, which he attributed to the regime's repeated failures in addressing key domestic issues and its loss of trust among both citizens and the international community.

He highlighted the regime's inability to deliver on promises of economic relief or maintain consistent governance, which has only deepened public disillusionment.

"The regime has lost both its legitimacy and its ability to function," Mahmoudian said. "Assad's collapse underscores how little leverage Tehran now has in negotiations with the West."

Mahmoudian urged Western governments to adopt a more strategic approach to supporting change in Iran. "The West's focus has often been on economic interests at the expense of human rights in Iran," he said, advocating for stronger international sanctions targeting the regime's leadership while easing restrictions that harm ordinary citizens.

"Instead of direct intervention, Western countries should focus on strengthening civil society within Iran," he added.

Although the heavy-handed suppression of dissent has raised the stakes for protesting against the regime, there is a growing sense among Iranians that another opportunity for change could emerge, especially as Tehran's regional influence wanes.

Assad's ouster has intensified this sense of possibility, leaving many Iranians wondering if the Islamic Republic's moment of reckoning is drawing near.

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru