There has been talk of building a nuclear power plant on Turkey's Mediterranean coast since the 1970s. Now a Russian-backed project to do so is underway, but experts are skeptical of many aspects of the project.
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Via video from Ankara, the presidents of Russia and Turkey, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, kicked off construction of Turkey's first nuclear power plant. The Akkuyu power plant in the Mediterranean coastal province of Mersin is a Turkish-Russian venture expected to cost $20 billion and meet 10 percent of Turkey's energy needs. Yet experts say it remains unclear when it would really come online: Neither the required technology transfer from Russia nor a construction completion date has been set.
The project deal between the two countries was agreed to in 2010. The plant was provisorily expected to start generating power from its first unit by 2023, with three more units coming online by 2026. Each of the four units is intended to generate 1,200 megawatts of electricity.
On April 26, 1986, the Chernobyl disaster released radiation across Ukraine, Russia and into Europe. It was turning point for the anti-nuclear movement. Now, 31 years later, is nuclear power becoming a thing of the past?
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Deadly disaster
The worst nuclear disaster of all time, the explosion at Chernobyl nuclear plant in Ukraine released massive amounts of radiation into the atmosphere. Areas close to the plant - in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia - were heavily contaminated. Heightened levels of radiation were also measured across most of Europe. The "exclusion zone" around Chernobyl remains off-limits to human habitation today.
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It happens again
After a magnitude-9 earthquake and consequent tsunami, three nuclear reactors at Fukushima power plant in Japan went into meltdown in March 2011. There were also four hydrogen explosions. The accident released 500 times as much radioactive cesium-137 as the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. The clean-up is expected to take decades.
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Sickening impact
After Chernobyl, thousands of people developed cancer. In Japan too, the heavily contaminated region of Fukushima, where 200,000 people lost their homes, saw cases of the disease escalate. The number of children with thyroid cancer there is 20 times higher than other regions.
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Rallying against nuclear power
Chernobyl fueled public opposition to nuclear power, particularly in Europe. The same happened after Fukushima. Before the Japanese disaster, the country relied on nuclear for 30 percent of its power. That has fallen to 1 percent. The government wants to continue producing nuclear power and plans to reinstall some reactors. But affected regions have successfully pushed back those plans.
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Nuclear industry in crisis
Today, the nuclear power sector is deep in economic crisis. In Japan, the United States and France, nuclear power plants run at a loss, and construction projects for new reactors have been postponed.
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New-build set-backs
France had high hopes for its newest nuclear reactors - called pressurized water reactors (PWRs). This technology was supposed to be safe, and the Flamanville power plant was due to be switched on in 2012. Due to security issues, that's been pushed back to 2018 at the earliest. The project will cost more than 10 billion euros - three times the original budget.
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Great Britain plans new reactors
For years, the UK has been planning to build two new PWR reactors at Hinkley Point. Costs are estimated at 33 billion euros and groundbreaking is slated for 2019. But doubts are growing over its economic viability. The electricity it produces will be much pricier than solar or wind power, and will need subsidies to compete in the market.
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Aging reactors up for grabs
Nuclear power plants used to be lucrative. But now, many are old and frail. Repair costs often mean they cannot turn a profit. Swiss energy corporation Alpiq recently tried to give away two of its old plants, 33 and 38 years old, to French energy company EDF - which declined the offer.
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Disasters abroad prompt German phase-out
Three decades ago, the Chernobyl disaster galvanized Germany's anti-nuclear movement, which is often cited as the roots of the country's energy transition. In 2002, Germany passed a law that would have seen the last reactor shut down in 2022. The plan was later scrapped by Angela Merkel's government. But after Fukushima, Merkel quickly reversed her decision and the phase-out was back on track.
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Switching them off
So far, nine of Germany's reactors have gone offline, with eight more to follow by 2022. To finance the costs of nuclear waste disposal, plant operators must pay 23.6 billion euros into a federal fund. The operators themselves are responsible for the similarly costly process of dismantling the plants, which will take decades to complete.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/D. Ebener
Growing fear of accidents
Across the EU and Switzerland 132 nuclear reactors are still online. They were designed to operate for 30 to 35 years - their average age is now 32 years. Malfunctions and security issues are frequently detected and protestors are increasingly calling for plants to be shut down.
Image: DW/G. Rueter
China pushes on with nuclear
No new nuclear power plants have been built in the EU, Japan or Russia since the Fukushima disaster in 2011. China remains committed to nuclear, partly to replace coal-based power. But the country is also upping investment in wind and solar.
Image: Imago/China Foto Press
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Target date 2023 unlikely
Critics are concerned with Turkey's growing energy dependence on Russia. Russia is Turkey's largest supplier of natural gas and third-largest supplier of oil. Turkey must diversify its energy sources, says Tugce Varol, an energy expert from the 21st Century Turkey Institute in Ankara, and have a long-term view of energy security. Instead, she says, there have been eight years of "select companies profiting from the Turkish government's energy policy."
The Turkish government wants to reduce its natural gas consumption for electricity production to below 30 percent. However, the Akkuyu nuclear power plant would be able to at most take over 7.7 percent of electricity production by 2026, Varol says. "I'm not against safe atomic energy using the most modern technology. But such a project should happen within a developed or at least developing democracy so there is the possibility for and the freedom to have critical feedback," she added.
A nuclear power plant project in a country whose media cannot be critical and commercial bids lack transparency does "more harm than good," she said.
The 2023 target date for the power plant coincides with the 100th anniversary of the modern Turkish republic. That may be a difficult goal to reach, according to a Reuters report that found that Russia's state nuclear corporation, Rosatom, has been having trouble finding local energy partners. Rosatom disputes this.
The project's progress is being seen as a bellwether for Turkish-Russian relations, including the technology transfer from Russia. No country should proceed with building a nuclear power plant, says atomic expert Sarman Gencay, without being fully briefed on atomic technology. Gencay, a professor at Istanbul Technical University, said the nuclear deal between Russia and Turkey does not guarantee the transfer. "The project's future is in the hands of our Russian friends, who have all the knowledge," he said. "Hopefully there will be no mishap. Because when a nuclear energy project comes to a halt, it is always the contracting country left with the bill."
Varol sees Russia with the upper hand, as well. Moscow makes sure it controls investments in the energy sector, she said, and it is interested in expanding its energy network further south. "Russia would unfortunately penalize Turkey should it not hold up its end of the project," Varol said. Unrelated agreements could adversely impact the power plant project, she added, for example should Turkey opt out of buying a Russian missile defense system.
For Gencay, it is essential that such a project be based on long-term, stable energy policy, which he does not see being the case. A national strategy is necessary, he says, that considers all sides – political, legal, scientific and technological. Only then would Turkey have a reliable nuclear policy.