Algeria will head to the polls on Saturday, but to most observers it's already clear who will win the presidential election.  

"There is no doubt that incumbent President Abdelmajid Tebboune is going to be reelected," Hafed Al-Ghwell, senior fellow at the Washington-based Johns Hopkins University, told DW.

Al-Ghwell sees two strong indicators suggesting Tebboune will win a second five-year-term.

Military power has been linked to Algerian politics for as long as most people can remember, he said. "And the military is still happy with him." 

The second indicator is that there is no real opposition left. Amid a crackdown on the opposition and on dissent in general, only 16 of the initially 34 candidates submitted their documents. By now, only two of those 16 remain in the race to challenge Tebboune.

"By disqualifying many presidential candidates, the Algerian regime has ensured that incumbent President Tebboune will win the election," said Maria Josua, Algeria researcher at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies.

"However, it is astonishing that even people who are established as loyal opposition were excluded prior to the election," she said, explaining that previously, the ruling party in Algeria had won by allowing the opposition to be much more fragmented.

In her view, this means Algerian authorities are anything but sure the president would be reelected under free conditions.

In February and July, human rights watchdog Amnesty International had  warned that Algeria's authorities had escalated their clampdown on dissenting voices.

Who are the candidates?

In addition to 79-year-old Tebboune, only 41-year-old Youcef Aouchiche of the Socialist Forces Front, and 57-year-old Abdellah Hassan Cherif, also referred to as Hassani Cherif, of the Islamist Party Movement for Society and Peace managed to gather the minimum number of signatures needed to run.

However, the political programs of the three candidates are fairly alike.

"The major focus is economic and includes different pathways to achieve economic diversification," said Zine Labidine Ghebouli, a political analyst on Algeria and visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Algeria's economy is largely driven by gas exports. Since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and sanctions on Russia meant a possible shortage of energy supply in Europe, President Tebboune was quick to strengthen ties with European countries.

Financially, this has paid off. "Algeria was one of only four countries worldwide that moved across the threshold from a lower-middle income to upper-middle income classification," the latest World Bank's annual income classification report reported in July.

At the same time, inflation remains high at around 9%.

While Algeria has not published official numbers since 2019, the International Labor Organization has suggested the overall unemployment rate stands at about 12%, with female unemployment at around 21% and youth unemployment at 31%.

For GIGA's Josua, the problems that had led to mass protests in 2019 —  which eventually pushed the late President Abdelaziz Bouteflika from office — not only still exist but have actually worsened.

"Youth unemployment, a very one-sided economic model based solely on gas exports, corruption among the elites and ecological problems still exist and are exacerbated by the autocratic system that lacks the democratic participation of the population," she said.

At the same time, Josua also sees that neither the EU nor neighboring countries have an interest in  change on the ground.

"International players wish to ensure that as little as possible changes in Algeria so that gas exports flow undisturbed, on which Italy in particular is now heavily dependent," she said.

Given the instability in the neighboring Sahel region, a stable Algerian regime also appears to be a security guarantor in military terms, she added.

Low turnout expected

Hafed Al-Ghwell doesn't believe many people will cast their vote. "People know the result of the election and they are not even going to bother to pretend that they are voting," he told DW.

However, for President Tebboune, turnout will matter as it was already low when he was elected in 2019 with less than 40% of the vote.

"But many Arab presidents have figured out that the best way to stay in power is through elections as they need to appear legitimate leaders," Al-Ghwell told DW. "Western countries and the international community need a cover to say we are dealing with a legitimate government."

For Josua, however, authoritarian states that ignore the interests of the population are only seemingly stable as they fail to solve the problems of their citizens in the long term.

"The biggest problem is therefore the president himself," she said. "The challenge for the winner of the election is to govern without legitimacy and the trust of the people."

Edited by: Andreas Illmer