State vote complicates Merkel's coalition building.
October 15, 2017
Elections in Lower Saxony have complicated German Chancellor Angela Merkel's federal coalition calculus as her conservative party finished second in a close race with the Social Democrats.
Image: Reuters/S. Loos
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Three weeks after German voters handed Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) its worst result in decades, she suffered another setback on Sunday in a vote that was seen as gauging the mood of the country just one day before political leaders begin federal coalition talks.
Official preliminary results put the Social Democratic Party (SPD) ahead with 36.9 percent of the vote, followed by the CDU with 33.6. The Greens earned 8.9 percent and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) came in with 7.5 percent.
The far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) could make its way into the state parliament on 6.2 percent. It marks the 14th of Germany's 16 state parliaments where the AfD has won seats.
The Left's 4.6 percent result means that despite increasing its share of the vote by 1.5 percentage points it won't make it over the 5-percent hurdle for parliamentary representation.
SPD relieved
"This is a great evening for the Lower Saxon SPD," Premier Stephen Weil said after the first results were released.
Lower Saxony Premier Stephan Weil was pleased with his party's resultsImage: Getty Images/Axel Schmidt
The leader of the national SPD and the party's top candidate in September's general election, Martin Schulz, echoed Weil's sentiment, congratulating the Lower Saxon SPD for a "magnificent victory."
The result is a turnaround for the SPD, which saw its worst performance in a national election since 1949 in September when it garnered only 20.5 percent of the vote. The national SPD leadership has since said it will not enter another "grand" federal coalition with Merkel's CDU and the CDU's Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).
CDU down
Despite winning over 30 percent of the vote, Sunday's result in Lower Saxony was the worst performance for the CDU in the state since 1959.
The CDU's top candidate in the state election, Bernd Althusmann, did not evaluate the result negatively.
"We don't need to atone for this," Althusmann said. The state CDU should instead "intelligently reflect upon what to do with this electoral outcome."
The general secretary of the CSU, Andreas Scheuer, was far more critical. "This is a disappointing election evening. You can't describe it in any other way," he said.
The CDU's second place in Lower Saxony follows the party's disappointing performance in September's national election. The CDU and the CSU together scored the most votes, but their combined 33 percent share was their worst result since 1949.
Jamaica in Berlin?
Discussions are set to begin on Monday among the CDU/CSU, the Greens and the FDP to form a "Jamaica" coalition in Berlin. The "Jamaica" coalition is named after the Caribbean country because the three parties' signature colors of black, green and yellow, correspond to the Jamaican flag.
Germany's colorful coalition shorthand
Foreign flags and even traffic lights are used to describe the various coalitions that emerge in German elections. Coalitions are common under Germany's proportional representation system.
Image: Getty Images
'Traffic light' coalition — Red, Yellow, Green
Since 2021 Germany has been governed by a center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), ecologist Greens, and free-market-oriented neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), whose color is yellow. They started out as a self-declared "Fortschrittskoalition" (progress coalition) but got mired in infighting along the way.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/J.Büttner
Black-red coalition
The Conservative's black combined with transformative red is the color code when the Christian Democrats govern in a "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats. This combination of Germany's two big tent parties, was in power for eight years until 2021, led by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Image: picture-alliance/R. Goldmann
'Pizza Connection' — precursor to Black and Green
When Bonn was still Germany's capital, conservative and Greens lawmakers started meeting informally in an Italian restaurant, in what became known as the 'Pizza Connection.' At the regional level, Baden-Württemburg's Greens-CDU coalition has governed since 2016 and Germany's most populous state of North-Rhine Westphalia has had a Black-Green government since 2022.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
'Jamaica' option — black, yellow and green
A three-way deal between the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats FDP), whose color is yellow did not come about at national level in 2017 after the FDP called off talks. It has been tested at a state level, where Schleswig-Holstein had a "Jamaica" government until they went Black-Green in 2022.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/dpaweb
Black, Red, Green — like Kenya's flag
The eastern German state of Saxony has been governed by a coalition of CDU, SPD and Greens, headed by the state's popular Premier Michael Kretschmer. He is hoping to be able to stay in power despite the rise of the right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) which is campaigning on an anti-immigrant and anti-NATO agenda.
Image: Fotolia/aaastocks
The Germany coalition — Black, Red and Yellow
The eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt has been governed by a coalition led by the CDU's popular Premier Rainer Haseloff. He has teamed up with the SPD and the FDP. The alliance of unlikely bedfellows was the only viable option to ward off the threat by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
Image: Hoffmann/Caro/picture alliance
Black and Orange
Since 2018 Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) has been governing with the Free Voters (FV), whose color is Orange. The FV is a grass-roots populist and far-right-leaning party and is led by its controversial chairman Hubert Aiwanger. Strong in rural areas of southern and eastern Germany, the Freie Wähler is seeking a larger role at the national level and currently has three MEPs.
Image: Privat
Violet and Black?
In graphics showing opinion polls, the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is shown in violet. That may be fitting, as it combines socialist, far-left (red) with populist right wing (blue) ideas in its platform. Although the party was only founded in 2024, it is doing so well in the eastern German states that it may well be asked to join coalition governments. Possibly led by the CDU (Black).
Image: Oliver Berg/dpa/picture alliance
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One of the leading Green politicians who will represent the party in the upcoming national negotiations, Jürgen Trittin, said the CDU's poor result in Lower Saxony on Sunday would make it more difficult for Merkel in her talks with the Greens and the FDP.
"[The result] weakens the CDU and that makes talks ... not easier but more difficult," he told German public broadcaster ARD.
Scheuer agreed, saying the CDU's defeat in Lower Saxony was a "fresh alarm" for the CDU/CSU to return to a more conservative position. CSU officials have repeatedly made that demand after their party lost votes to the AfD in Bavaria in the recent national election.
But a more conservative CDU/CSU could alienate the Greens, many of whom already oppose many hardline policies the CSU has recently advocated.
A government renewal or Jamaica in Lower Saxony?
Initial results in Lower Saxony indicate that the SPD and the Greens could — just barely — be able to continue their coalition, but that will remain unclear until the final vote tally.
Depending on the outcome of the final count, the SPD could form a "grand" coalition with the CDU or a three-way "traffic light" coalition with the Greens and the FDP. "Traffic light" refers to the colors of the Greens, the FDP and the SPD (red).
But the FDP's top candidate for the state election, Stefan Birkner, told news agency dpa that "the FDP was not available for a traffic light coalition," adding his party would only consider entering an administration with the CDU and the Greens.
An early election
The election in Lower Saxony was originally slated for January 2018 but was moved forward after a member of parliament for the Green Party, Elke Twesten, left her party in August to join the CDU. She thereby ended the slim majority held by the governing coalition comprised of the Greens and the SPD, making the election necessary.
Merkel had been heavily involved in the state's short election campaign, even making several appearances in local town squares to address voters in person.
The SPD saw a surge in support shortly before the election, with some polls showing the party overtaking the CDU in the last few days of campaigning.
Lower Saxony - what you need to know
On October 15, Lower Saxony becomes the first state to vote for a new regional parliament since the national election in September. DW has the lowdown on one of Germany's largest states.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/H. Hollemann
Swamp Soccer
There has been precious little mud-slinging in the election campaign so far, in stark contrast to the Swamp Soccer match in August during the East Friesian "Wältmeisterschaften" (Wadden Cup). The Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage site dominates large areas in the northern part of Lower Saxony.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Jaspersen
Germany's food basket
Agriculture, especially pork and beef production, is a key industry in Lower Saxony. The regional government claims that almost half of all potatoes in Germany are produced in the state. Each year, the country fair in the town of Verden crowns the most beautiful dairy cow from around 200 participants.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Jaspersen
The Volkswagen behemoth
The political influence on what was until recently the world's largest carmaker, is unique. The state of Lower Saxony is one of the biggest shareholders in Volkswagen and holds 20 percent of voting rights. The state government has a say in the direction and running of the auto giant and has two representatives on the supervisory board.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/J. Stratenschulte
Two hats on
As state premier of Lower Saxony, Stephan Weil is also a member of VW's supervisory board. Qua office, so to speak. As is his finance minister and fellow Social Democrat, Olaf Lies. Weil sees the tradition of state lawmakers being on the board of having "proved itself for decades."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/P. von Ditfurth
The best of friends
The intertwining of politics and VW business has long been a cause for hefty criticizm, however. Gerhard Schröder's (seen here awarding the state medal to VW chairman Ferdinand Piech) tenure as state premier between 1990 and 1998 came in for particular scrutiny. When he moved to the national stage, Schröder earned the moniker the "auto chancellor."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/H. Hollemann
The challenger
State Premier Stephan Weil's main rival is Bernd Althusmann, the leader of the regional party of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats. Should he emerge victorious, Althusmann plans to bring in external expertise to VW. He envisions replacing one of the government's seats on the advisory board with an auditor.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/H.Hollemann
Life support
It is impossible to overstate the economic significance of VW for Lower Saxony. It means jobs. Lots of them. Around 120,000 of VW's worldwide 600,000 employees are based in the state. As well as the Wolfsburg headquarters, there are also production facilities in five further cities in Lower Saxony, including the port of Emden (pictured here), where cars are immediately loaded onto waiting ships.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/I. Wagner
Wind in its sails
Lower Saxony is a leading pioneer of wind energy. With 203 new turbines in the first half of 2017, the state accounts for a quarter of all new facilities nationwide.
Image: picture-alliance/blickwinkel/W. Boyungs
Musical chairs in Hanover
The pack in the Hanover state parliament will be reshuffled on October 15. At least 135 lawmakers make up the assembly, but that figure rose to 137 after the last election due to overhang seats. This election was brought forward after a Green party MP switched allegiances to the Christian Democrats, meaning the ruling coalition of Social Democrats and Greens lost their one-seat majority.
