Campaigns for the August presidential election in Angola have begun. The poll will mark the end of the 38-year rule of President Jose Eduardo dos Santos who is not running for reelection.
Image: DW/B. Ndomba
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Jose Eduardo dos Santos is, after Equatorial Guinea's longtime leader Teodoro Obiang Nguema, Africa's longest serving president. He came to power almost four decades ago in 1979 when Angola had been independent for just four years. A civil war was raging between the ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) party and two other liberation movements, UNITA and FNLA. Elections only took place in 1992. They were won - like all those which followed - by dos Santos and his party.
The opposition may criticise irregularities and bemoan a lack of equal opportunities but every time international observers recognize the results.
Dos Santos gone but the party remains
This time a total of six parties will compete for seats in parliament. The head of state is elected as an indirect part of this process. The first candidate on the list of the party which receives the most votes automatically becomes president. But this time it will not be Jose Eduardo dos Santos.
At the MPLA congress in December 2016, dos Santos announced his resignation and Joao Lourenco was designated as Angola's next strongman. There is little doubt in Angola that he will become president after the elections. "This time, too, the opposition will not get enough votes," journalist Jose Adalberto told DW, "the opposition is fragmented and has no strong leadership. It does not seem to be able to transmit its message intelligibly."
Opposition politician Ntu (behind the flag) sees no equal chances for all presidential candidatesImage: privat
"Unfortunately, even in 2017, there can be no talk of equal chances," said Teka Ntu whose party, the National Patriotic Alliance (APN), was founded only two years ago. "All parties are equal but the MPLA is more equal than the others and that has always been the case," he said. Ntu, who is in charge of foreign policy at the APN, has been living in the German city of Essen for over 10 years.
He took extra holiday for the election campaign. Many opposition parties simply lack money to put up a fight against the MPLA. They do not have money to pay for advertising, candidates' transport, helpers on the campaign trail or even small gifts for potential voters.
"It is very sad that the opposition could not win 50 out of 220 parliament seats in any election so far," Ntu told DW in an interview. "What we have at the moment is a parliamentary dictatorship and it has to end," he added.
Speculation about dos Santos' state of health
The Portuguese weekly paper Expresso says it has learned from a reliable source that people close to dos Santos are seriously worried about his health. For years, the president has been moving back and forth between a Spanish private clinic and Luanda. The trips are becoming more frequent. There is talk of him suffering from cancer. Last week, dos Santos returned to Luanda, but according to Expresso, it's just a matter of days until he'll be back in Barcelona for another medical check-up.
Joao Lourenco is Angola's next strongman and president-in-waiting
"If something actually does happen to the president, the MPLA will not be caught unawares," Jose Adalberto said. The MPLA party leadership has taken the necessary precautions byappointing Joao Lourenco as dos Santos' successor and the party would be able to deal with the death of dos Santos, he added.
Other observers take a different view and predict a struggle for power and top positions.
Not least because, in recent years dos Santos appointed people who enjoyed his trust to all key positions within the country. Many are family members. His daughter, Isabel dos Santos, heads the state oil company Sonangol. His son manages the state oil fund. All high posts in the police, army, and secret services were also filled with trusted confidants.
Incoming president must accept predecessor's appointees
Many senior government officials are likely to retain their posts, once dos Santos leaves power. During the last parliamentary session, a new law was pushed through ensuring that decisions taken by the outgoing president may not be changed. The law was passed by a huge majority, with only the two major opposition parties, UNITA and CASA-CE, voting against it. They account for only 40 out of a total of 220 members of parliament.
"This law, which the president leaves us, has created a lot of polemics," said Adalberto.
"The capacity of the new president to take action has been limited. Joao Lourenco is himself a general and will want to make his own personnel decisions concerning the military, intelligence and police."
Now campaigning has begun and the ruling MPLA has promised to create 500,000 new jobs in a move to win over the country's impoverished and frustrated youth. For its part, the opposition UNITA has promised the introduction of a minimum wage of 500 US dollars (429 euros) per month. CASA-CE wants a major political reform and local elections.
All parties are demanding a fair and above all peaceful election campaign. Nevertheless, there have already been some incidents. Over the weekend a 17-year-old was shot dead by police near the capital for burning the MPLA flag.
Dos Santos: Angola's 'eternal' president
Only one man has held presidential office in Angola since 1979. But now Jose Eduardo dos Santos has said he will step down after this year's elections. DW looks back at his 37-years at the top of Angolan politics.
Image: Reuters
The fight for Angolan independence
At the age of 19, Jose Eduardo dos Santos joined the People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a Marxist-inspired party fighting for Angola's freedom from Portuguese colonial rule. In 1963, dos Santos received a scholarship to study petrochemistry in the former Soviet Union, where he later went on to train in military communications. In 1970, he returned to Angola.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
A place at the Cabinet table
After independence from Portugal was declared in 1975, civil war broke out between the three independence movements: the MPLA, UNITA and FNLA. The capital city Luanda was under MPLA control. The party leader, Agostinho Neto (pictured), became the first president of an independent Angola and established a one-party system. Dos Santos was appointed foreign minister and later planning minister.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Alliance with the Eastern Bloc
In September 1979, Neto died in Moscow. The MPLA chose dos Santos to be the new president of Angola. He strengthened alliances with communist countries in the Eastern Bloc - such as the Soviet Union, Cuba and East Germany. In 1981, he visited East Germany and was received by Erich Honecker (pictured, left), the general secretary of the Socialist Unity Party.
During his stay in East Germany, dos Santos visited the Brandenburg Gate and the Berlin Wall - both symbols of the Cold War and the divide between East and West. In Angola, the Cold War had turned into a "hot" proxy war. The West - particularly South Africa and the United States - supported UNITA, while the East stood with the MPLA.
Image: Bundesarchiv
Side-by-side with Cuba
Cuba took the militarily weak MPLA government under its wing. It sent 40,000 soldiers to fight in Angola, for example in 1988 in the battle of Cuito Canavale - one of the deadliest in the Angolan civil war. Three years later, an initial peace accord was signed in Portugal.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
The peace deal breaks down
The first free elections took place in 1992. The MPLA won a parliamentary majority but dos Santos did not secure an outright victory in the first round of the presidential election. The runoff against Jonas Savimbi, the leader of UNITA, never took place. War broke out again after UNITA rejected the elections, casting allegations of vote-rigging.
Image: picture-alliance / dpa
The West loses interest
Once the Cold War was over, the West lost interest in the Angolan civil war. In 1993, the US recognized the MPLA government, which was increasingly embracing capitalism. After Apartheid had come to an end in South Africa, UNITA lost its most important ally. A 1994 peace deal in Angola also broke down, and dos Santos went into full-on military mode.
Image: Jörg Böthling/Brot für die Welt
Wading into the Congo Crisis
In 1998, the Angolan military came to the aid of Laurent-Desire Kabila (pictured) during the Congo crisis. By helping Kabila become president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, dos Santos was able to remove one of UNITA's areas of refuge. This move also established Angola as a leading military power in southern Africa.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/P.Wojazer
Taking down Savimbi
An international weapons embargo weakened UNITA, which was becoming increasingly isolated. On February 22, 2002, government troops killed UNITA's leader Jonas Savimbi (pictured). In the same year, UNITA and MPLA signed another peace deal. This brought one of Africa's bloodiest civil wars - in which 1 million people died and 4 million fled the country - to an end.
Image: AP
Reminders of war
Many years after the end of the civil war, the destruction is still evident across the country. The armed forces continued to play an important role in the Angolan president's leadership. Clashes between government forces the separatist group FLEC still occur regularly in the northern enclave of Cabinda.
Image: gemeinfrei
Postponed elections
The second parliamentary elections, planned for 1997, did not take place until 2008. The MPLA emerged victorious, with 81.6 percent of the votes, while UNITA secured 10.4 percent. There were complaints of voter intimidation and poor organization. The 2009 presidential election was called off and dos Santos stayed in power.
Image: Reuters
An uncertain partnership
In 2011, German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Angola and even signed a "strategic partnership" with dos Santos. German companies initially showed interest in investment opportunities in Angola - but few projects actually came to fruition in subsequent years.
Image: dapd
Stifling the opposition
Inspired by the Arab Spring, young Angolans took to the streets in 2011 to protest against dos Santos. The police used force to suppress demonstrations and activists were arrested. In 2013, the presidential guard shot two opposition activists. Members of the Adventist sect "Luz do Mundo" (Light of the World) were also targeted. Human rights observers accused the police of extrajudicial killings.
Image: DW/N. Sul d´Angola
Legitimate leadership
In 2010, parliament changed the constitution and abolished direct presidential elections. The leader of the party with the most votes in the parliamentary elections would become president. In 2012, the MPLA took 71.9 percent of the votes. After 32 years in office, dos Santos had democratic legitimacy for the first time. Observers argued that the opposition did not have a fair chance.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Family man
Family is also a powerful driving force behind the dos Santos leadership. He met his third and current wife, former model Ana Paula dos Santos (pictured), when she was working as a stewardess on the presidential plane. They married in 1991 and had four children. Ana Paula dos Santos will be put forward as an MPLA parliamentary candidate this year.
Image: Reuters
The richest woman in Africa
Dos Santos' daughter Isabel - who he had with his former wife, Russian chess champion Tatiana Kukanova - was named the richest woman in Africa by Forbes magazine in 2011. She has invested in businesses ranging from telecommunications to sports. Dos Santos' son José Filomeno - from his second marriage, to Filomena de Sousa - leads the state investment fund.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Scratching China's back
China is dos Santos' new best friend. The country is the main buyer of Angolan oil and Chinese credit has funded Angolan infrastructure projects. With this money, Chinese firms have built whole districts in Angola, like Kilamba Kiaxi (pictured). Unlike the IMF and western lenders, China does not impose any loan conditions based on transparency or human rights.
Image: cc by sa Santa Martha
Poverty and development
Despite the country's oil wealth, many Angolans still live in extreme poverty. The country has the highest global rate of death among infants. Even in the middle of the capital city, Luanda, there are neighborhoods without waste water disposal. Health services, which are often only offered privately, are too expensive for many people. The education system is similarly underdeveloped.
Image: DW/N. Sul d'Angola
Keeping a low profile
It is rare to see dos Santos in interviews or press conferences and he seldom gives speeches. In recent years, the president has traveled regularly to Spain for medical treatment. Only one African leader - Teodoro Obiang of Equitorial Guinea - has been in office longer than dos Santos.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/P.Novais
A successor for dos Santos
Once dos Santos announced that he would not be standing again for office in August 2017, the MPLA put forward Defense Minister Joao Lourenco (pictured) as its main candidate for the parliamentary elections. However, Dos Santos will remain the leader of the party, ensuring his continued presence in Angolan politics.
