Nepal's three major political parties say they will make another attempt to break the deadlock between the Maoists and the other parties. The UN has extended the mandate of its Nepal mission UNMIN accordingly, hoping that the parties also finally agree on the integration of former Maoist combatants into the army.

19,000 of these ex-guerilla fighters are still living in UNMIN-supervised camps. UNMIN spokesperson Kosmos Biswokarma says, "the political parties have concluded between themselves that they will be able to solve the integration issue within the deadline of the new constitution, i.e. May 28, 2010."

The plight of the former combatants has been controversial since the end of the civil war. The generals and politicians of other parties don't want the Maoists in the army.

Deep divide

But since May last year, the divide has grown deeper. At that time, Maoist supremo Pushpa Kamal Dahal resigned as Nepal's prime minister after failing to dismiss the army chief. The Maoists, who had become the strongest party in the 2008 elections, were suddenly in the opposition. They began mobilizing their supporters in the streets against the new government. The work of the Constituent Assembly was seriously affected.

But Nepali author and democracy activist Manjushree Thapa says, "there is so much interest in making the process succeed. India, who is the major player in the peace process in Nepal, and the United Nations and other international organizations and partners will make sure that something that resembles a peace process will happen."

"The only problem will be: is it going to be satisfactory or not? When the peace process began in 2006, there were very high hopes for it. And now it’s turned into a very sad and sorry process, where just if anything happens, if we just don’t go back to war, people are willing to call it a success. So the standard has really lowered!"

Trouble started after election

Many observers believe the Maoists' surprising election victory in 2008 triggered the crisis. The Maoists claimed a leadership role for themselves. And after the first shock had passed, the other parties decided not to let that happen. They have the backing of powerful neighbor India, according to Manjushree Thapa.

She explains, "India, I think, supported the peace process with a very confident sense that the Maoists would always be a junior partner in government, because, of course, India has its own big Maoist movement. And for them, the experiment in Nepal is very crucial, because if they can bring the Nepali Maoists in as a junior partner in government and turn them into a democratic party, that becomes something they can show their own Maoists in India and say, ‘look, this is what we can do for you if you come into a peace process!’"

However, just recently, Nepal's Maoists launched an anti-India campaign. The manifest distrust between them and New Delhi does not bode well for the future of the peace process in Kathmandu.

Author: Thomas Bärthlein
Editor: Grahame Lucas