Six years after the Taliban were overthrown, the Afghan government is still not in a position to provide the country with stability and peace. Neither the Afghan army nor the police have enough personnel or equipment to fight against their enemies successfully. Even with the support of about 60,000 NATO soldiers they haven't been able to guarantee stability in the capital Kabul, let alone in other parts of the country.

Numerous NATO generals, and above all the US Defence Minister Robert Gates, have talked of bigger deployments to Afghanistan. But the desired-for reinforcements have not been forthcoming. So the Afghan government was not able to build up its security forces in 2007.

A report by the London-based think tank, Senlis Council, found that Taliban forces are present all over the country, capable of attacking everywhere. The Taliban militants in the south and the east, which makes up 40 percent of the country, who were thought to have been beaten, are still highly active. The UN says 2007 was the bloodiest of the six years since the Taliban was overthrown. Over a hundred suicide attacks rocked the country in the first ten months of the year.

Mounting Civilian Deaths

The official figures say that 5,100 people died in attacks, clashes and air raids during this time period -- including about 1,000 civilians. By comparison, in 2006, there were 3,300 official victims -- 1,800 fewer than in this year. Sima Samar, the chairperson of the independent Afghan Human Rights Commission, says this year has been a catastrophe:

"2007 has been a challenge for the Afghan people and the Human Rights Commission. This year, we have had many dead people, many civilians. They died in attacks by the government and its enemies. Press freedom has also been attacked by both sides."

President Karzai agrees with the prominent human rights activist. But he also blames former mujahideen and warlords in his government for the increasing violence and human rights violations. But he’s still depending on their support: "We have no other choice but to work with these forces. They are too powerful to be ignored. If I let them fall they will take it out on the population just like in the years of civil war."

Unfortunately Karzai’s former allies -- the warlords and mujahideen -- have a clear majority in parliament and could apply a lot of pressure on the Afghan leader over the coming months and years. Especially as some of them have direct links with the United States.

Change of strategy?

The president can only rely on a few trusted men in his government. Foreign minister Rangin Dadfar Spanta belongs to Karzai's small circle of trusted politicians. But the former Green politician from Germany is far too weak to really be able to help. He was voted out of parliament in a vote of no confidence at the beginning of this year and was only able to stay in office thanks to the president's support. He sees no other solution for the crisis in his country than a complete and lasting victory over the Taliban. But he thinks this victory cannot be reached through war in Afghanistan:

"What's more important is to fight terrorism where training is taking place -- at its source. I am convinced that all our efforts will be unsuccessful so long as this does not take place. Otherwise, we'll have terrorism here and in Washington, New York and Madrid."

But to fight terrorism at its source is proving to be difficult. The Afghan security forces are not capable of doing it and the international ones don't want to open new fronts. So many analysts are doubtful whether the next years will bring any success. Some warn that the Taliban could be back in power within two years if the government doesn't change its strategy fast.