Jordan: A balancing act

Jordan, a constitutional monarchy, negotiates a delicate balancing act.

One in five people in Jordan, including the queen, are of Palestinian descent. The desire for Palestinian statehood and equal rights are close to the hearts of many locals. The country's rulers often speak out on the issue.

But Jordan is also closer to Israel and the US than many locals realize, experts say. In 1994, Jordan signed a peace agreement with Israel and behind the scenes, the two nations work together on security-related issues, such as safety at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem.

In 2021, the US and Jordan entered a defense cooperation agreement that allows US forces, vehicles and aircraft to enter and move around Jordan freely.

In April this year, when Jordan allegedly helped shoot down Iranian missiles crossing its airspace heading toward Israel, many locals saw it as a betrayal.

Jordan maintains diplomatic relations with Iran, but these tend to be chilly. The recent visit of Jordan's foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, to Iran to discuss escalating tensions in the region was a rare occasion.

Egypt: Self-interest and diplomacy

Neighboring Egypt, under the authoritarian government headed by Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, must also carefully balance its relationship with Israel.

Since signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, "Egypt has striven to balance its national interests, particularly related to insecurity in the Sinai, with support for the Palestinian cause," said a May report by the International Crisis Group, a think tank. "Concretely, this effort has meant rejecting any direct responsibility for the plight of people in Gaza while backing attempts to reach a diplomatic settlement based on the two-state solution."

Egyptian security and economic cooperation with Israel is commonplace, and up until the Gaza conflict began Egypt was in charge of the Gaza-Egypt border crossing at Rafah. Israeli demands that it now be allowed to control this area are problematic for Egypt, as is the potential for the ever-worsening humanitarian disaster in Gaza to spill into Egyptian territory.

The Egyptian government previously opposed Hamas, seeing it as an Islamist organization and a threat to its rule. But more recently, that attitude has relaxed, and Egypt has played an important role in cease-fire negotiations.

Egypt's relations with Iran have been improving since 2023, but they also tend to be cold.

Lebanon: Hezbollah's decision

Lebanon, a parliamentary democracy, has been busy dealing with its own political and economic emergencies. It has not had an elected government since 2020 and is dealing with one of the world's worst economic crises. Before this, the Lebanese government was always made up of representatives of the country's many different religious and ethnic groups.

The political wing of Hezbollah is one of those groups, representing Shiite Muslim interests, and plays an important role in Lebanon's governance. But in this regard, it must balance its own interests with those of other powerful groups, including Lebanese Christians, Sunni Muslims and Druze. 

The military wing of Hezbollah is a different story. It is categorized as a terrorist organization by the US and some European countries and is thought to be better-equipped and organized than Lebanon's own army.

Many Lebanese politicians and locals don't necessarily want to see Hezbollah start a bigger fight with Israel. They fear becoming "a casualty of those Israelis who increasingly believe that defeating Hezbollah will restore their sense of security," the Arab Center Washington recently wrote.

But Lebanese politicians also know they have little control over Hezbollah, which is the most powerful player in the so-called "axis of resistance," a loose coalition of militant groups backed by Iran and opposed to Israel and the US.

Syria: Beholden to Iran

Since the state of Israel was established in 1948, Syria has considered itself at war with its neighbor. The two countries often exchange fire, although this is mostly considered symbolic.

Today, Syrian dictator Bashar Assad is beholden to Iran, which backed him militarily during the country's 13-year civil war. This explains the increasing presence of pro-Iran militias in Syria, including members of Hezbollah and others from Iraq.

As a result, Israeli attacks on Syria have intensified since 2017 and have escalated further since the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas. An April attack by Israel on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria's capital, that killed a senior Iranian commander led to a major retaliation from Iran.

Iraq: Opposed to external interference

Iraq doesn't recognize Israel, and although Iraq's government — currently dominated by Shiite Muslim politicians — has come closer to Iran over the past decade, the Palestinian issue cuts across sectarian lines, experts say. 

Inside Iraq there are a number of militant groups that also belong to Iran's "axis of resistance." These groups have previously fired rockets at US bases inside Iraq and have also tried, but mostly failed, to hit Israel. The US has retaliated against them.

The Iraqi government and its security forces tend to either tolerate these groups or have little contact with them.

"Iraq has always had to balance its relationship between the United States and Iran," Marsin Alshamary, a non-resident fellow told the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank.

"This is not new for Iraqi leaders. Baghdad's relationship with Washington has clear contours, particularly concerning Iraq's position on Israel […] Iraq has consistently supported the Palestinian cause and its position on this current conflict is not shaped by Iran's support for Hamas."

Yemen: All about the Houthis

Because of an ongoing civil war, Yemen is divided between the internationally recognized government based in Aden, southern Yemen, and the Houthi rebel group in northern Yemen. Neither recognizes Israel.

Yemen's neighbor, Saudi Arabia, previously led a coalition against the Houthis, but ever since a cease-fire was signed in early 2022 there has been relative calm.

The Houthi group is also considered part of the "axis of resistance." The Houthis support Hamas, claim Israel is a force for instability in the Middle East and are opposed to the US presence in the region. In November, they started to fire rockets at Israel and blockade maritime traffic in support of Hamas.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar: Pragmatic and rich

The autocratic monarchies of the Gulf Arab states have taken a more pragmatic approach to the current conflict. They see Iran as an enemy and had previously been working on normalizing relations with Israel.

In 2020, the UAE and Bahrain both signed the so-called Abraham Accords, which established diplomatic contacts with Israel. Saudi Arabia looked to be next.

However, the Hamas attacks of October 7 complicated that process, and the Houthis' attacks have also increased the risks of further conflict for Saudi Arabia in Yemen.

Qatar has been more of a middleman. It eschews normalization with Israel but actually established economic ties with the country back in the 1990s. Because it also hosts Hamas' political wing, Qatar has played an important part in cease-fire negotiations.

Edited by: Davis Alley Van Opdorp