US scientists have warned that higher temperatures in the Arctic could be fueling extreme weather in the US and Europe. The NOAA report said 2018 was the second-warmest year on record in the Arctic since 1900.
Image: picture-alliance/robertharding
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The warming of the Arctic is occurring at a record pace and having a significant impact across the planet, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has revealed in its 2018 Arctic Report Card.
The report was released on Tuesday at the American Geophysical Union's annual conference in Washington, just weeks after another damning climate assessment by US scientists was published.
The NOAA report said Arctic surface air temperatures are increasing at twice the rate as the rest of the world; in the past five years, they have broken all records since 1900.
Emily Osborne, program manager of NOAA's Arctic Research Program, told reporters the Arctic "is experiencing the most unprecedented transition in human history."
From October 2017 through September 2018, the average temperature in the Arctic was 3.1 Fahrenheit (1.7 Celsius) higher than the 1981-2010 average.
"The year 2018 was the second warmest year on record in the Arctic since 1900 after 2016," the report said.
Most troubling, the Arctic saw the second-lowest overall sea-ice coverage and the lowest recorded winter ice in the Bering Sea.
Older, thick ice is also rapidly disappearing across the Arctic. In 2017, old ice made up less than 1 percent of the ice pack and over the past 33 years, very old Arctic ice has declined by 95 percent.
Increased heat in the north is upsetting typical weather patterns worldwide, a trend that "coincides" with severe winter storms in the eastern US and an extreme cold snap in Europe in March, the NOAA explained.
A warmer Arctic has the effect of reducing the north-south temperature difference, which provides the main fuel for the polar jet stream, NOAA said.
In this warming environment, the jet stream has become more unstable. Scientists now see evidence of how a changing jet stream could be causing extreme storms.
The unstable jet stream creates a pattern that "allows warm air to penetrate farther north and cold air to plunge farther south, compared to when the jet is strong and relatively straight," the report said.
Recent examples of these effects include "the heat wave at the North Pole in autumn 2017, a swarm of severe winter storms in the eastern United States in 2018 and the extreme cold outbreak in Europe in March 2018 known as the 'Beast from the East.'"
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Disruption of the ecosystem
Warmer Arctic temperatures are also wreaking havoc on the region's ecosystem. Reindeer and caribou populations have been decimated, and harmful algae blooms have moved northward and have a harmful effect on marine life.
Although melting ice has opened up more land for grazing, herds of caribou and wild reindeer across the Arctic tundra have declined by 56 percent over the last two decades, cutting populations from 4.7 million to 2.1 million.
"Considerable concentrations of algal toxins have been found in the tissues of Arctic clams, seals, walrus and whales and other marine organisms," the report said.
10 years of shipping through the frozen north
In 2008, ships were able to cross the Arctic Ocean for the first time, as ice cover melted. With the planet heating up, these seasonal shipping routes are open longer each year. What will that mean for Arctic wildlife?
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/D. Goldmann
Let there be sea
Once, only explorers in search of adventure or scientific discovery braved the icy heart of the Arctic. But the ice is vanishing. August 29, 2008 marked a turning point: For the first time, merchant ships could navigate both the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage, without icebreakers. This ship-friendly period in summer has been getting longer and longer ever since.
Image: picture-alliance/Okapia/H. Kanus
Shortcut from the Atlantic to the Pacific
The 6,500-kilometer-long (4,000-mile) Northeast Passage leads from Asia, past Russia and Norway, and connects the Atlantic with the Pacific Ocean. The slightly shorter Northwest Passage runs past Canada toward New York. Both routes cross the Bering Strait and the Arctic Ocean. This is only possible if ice cover does not block the way.
Image: DW
Taking the long road
To get from Rotterdam to Tokyo, ships currently pass India and go through the Suez Canal in Egypt. That's about 6,000 kilometers longer than the route through the Northeast Passage. Ships travel to the US East Coast from Asia via the Pacific and through the Panama Canal. Here, too, taking the Northwest Passage cuts over 4,000 kilometers off the journey.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Shaker
Arctic pioneers
In 2009, the Bremen-based Beluga shipping company sent two German heavy-lift carriers through the Northeast Passage for the first time. Since then, shipping traffic in the region has increased. Still, Burkhard Lemper of the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics in Bremen says the Arctic Ocean is not (yet) heavily frequented — if only because the route is only open at certain times of year.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Beluga Shipping
Open water
No climate scientist can say for sure how global warming will progress around the North Pole. But, "Everyone agrees the Arctic will be ice-free within the next 30 to 50 years," says sea-ice expert Christian Haas of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven, Germany. Researchers describe the Arctic as ice-free when ice cover falls below 1 million square kilometers in summer.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/D. Goldmann
Disturbing the peace
Biologists fear for the unique wildlife in the Arctic as shipping traffic increases. Beluga whales, Greenland whales and walruses, for example, could be a risk, US researchers say in a study published by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. They studied 80 populations of marine mammals and found that more than half are resident along the Northeast or Northwest Passage.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/McPHOTO
Very special residents
Scientists fear that narwhals in particular could suffer from shipping traffic in the Arctic Ocean. The marine mammals stay close to coastal pack ice. The males are easily recognizable by their helical tusk, which can become up to three meters long. This is a life-size replica in the Ozeanum Oceanographic Museum in Stralsund, Germany.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/S. Sauer
Antarctica as a model
Researchers and environmentalists are calling for guidelines on Arctic shipping. For example, ships should avoid the whales' main hunting grounds, fit sailing schedules around their migration, and keep noise and speed in check. "This does not yet exist in the Arctic — that's the big difference from Antarctica," Greenpeace biologist Christian Bussau says.
Image: Reuters/A. Meneghini
The calm before the storm?
According to Greenpeace expert Bussau, only 50 ships pass through the Northeast and Northwest Passage each year. The German Shipowners' Association says the figure is in the double-digit range. But Bussau says time is of the essence: "In the long run, there will be a lot going on in the Arctic." So far, there are no environmental regulations for shipping in the region.
