Diplomatic relations between the two countries are strained as multiple issues threaten established political alliances in the Gulf region. The row could result in new allies in the Far East.
Image: Bandar Algaloud/Saudi Kingdom Council/AA/picture alliance
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The recent visit by the Indian chief-of-staff to Saudi Arabia has marked not only a major step in the countries' military dialogue — but more so, it has sent a strong signal to nearby Pakistan: Riyadh's politics bear undeniable signs of increasingly becoming a balancing act between India and Pakistan.
The meeting marked another milestone in increasingly tense relations between the Middle East economic superpower Saudi Arabia and its nuclear-equipped — but financially inferior — ally Pakistan.
Tense diplomatic relations between Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud (R) and Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan (R)Image: Bandar Algaloud/Saudi Kingdom Council/AA/picture alliance
"The Pakistani-Saudi relations have certainly been complex all along but since 2015, when the Pakistani parliament banned the Pakistani military from participating in the war in Yemen, their relations with Saudi Arabia haven't become any easier," James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and the Middle East Institute in Singapore and author of the acclaimed political blog‘The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer', tells DW.
Multiple layers of discontent
The military conflict in Yemen is not the only region that has caused disputes between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. In February, Pakistan had expected Riyadh to support them in dealing with India over the Kashmir crisis — which in May has since resulted in renewed clashes between India and Pakistan. In particular, Pakistan had requested a supportive meeting with the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). After Saudi Arabia turned down the request, Pakistan repeated its demand, which in turn resulted in Riyadh calling in a $1 billion loan.
Consequently, Pakistan repaid the loan with a new loan — but this time, coming from China.
The Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan has seen the stakes in diplomatic ties grow Image: Sajjad QAYYUM/AFP
It is no surprise that China's Belt and Road Initiative and the country's decision to lend $1 billion is welcomed by Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan, who is in need of new allies.
Experts, however, believe that Beijing is also in a diplomatic state of wariness as it needs Saudi oil. Jeremy Garlick, author of "The Impact of China's Belt and Road Initiative: From Asia to Europe" and an assistant professor at the University of Economics in Prague, is convinced that China will "play a waiting game at this stage and try not to become involved in Middle Eastern politics for as long as possible."
Expert James Dorsey agrees: "I don't think that the Saudis can really afford to make a choice between India and Pakistan, while the Pakistanis wouldn't want to be dependent on China either."
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An ongoing balancing act
Saudi Arabia has significant investments in India, which is also a major buyer of Saudi oil. This explains Saudi Arabia's dwindled support for Pakistan's stance on Kashmir. "But to be fair, the Saudis were very helpful to the Pakistanis when they needed it," says Dorsey.
The initial $1 billion loan was part of a $6.2 billion package when Pakistan needed cash to help counteract the country's sky-rocketing trade deficit and declining foreign reserves in November 2018. According to Pakistani media, the package included $3 billion in loans and a $3.2 billion oil credit facility that was, however, suspended in May 2019.
While Saudi Arabia is the regional superpower, it also needs Pakistan due to its proximity to Afghanistan and rival Iran, says Dorsey. Moreover, Pakistan is home to the world's largest Shiite minority.
On the other hand, Pakistanis form the second-largest group of immigrants in Saudi Arabia.
Despite the fact that Riyadh has already sent back tens of thousands of (mainly male, blue-collar) workers, the money the remaining immigrants transfer back home to Pakistan has a significant impact on the Pakistani economy.
Open and closed doors for new allies
In addition to these sources of tension, Pakistan's Prime Minister Khan has told regional news outlets that he was pressured by two Arab nations to "normalize relations with Israel." Those who know the region's geopolitics know that Khan is likely referring to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
DW contacted the Pakistani ambassador to Germany for comment but received no reply.
India-Pakistan rivalry: Kashmiris pay a high price
India and Pakistan continue to clash over Kashmir, a volatile Himalayan region that has been experiencing an armed insurgency for nearly three decades. Many Kashmiris are now fed up with both Islamabad and New Delhi.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/T. Mustafa
An unprecedented danger?
On February 27, Pakistan's military said that it had shot down two Indian fighter jets over disputed Kashmir. A Pakistani military spokesman said the jets were shot down after they'd entered Pakistani airspace. It is the first time in history that two nuclear-armed powers have conducted air strikes against each other.
Image: Reuters/D. Ismail
India drops bombs inside Pakistan
The Pakistani military has released this image to show that Indian warplanes struck inside Pakistani territory for the first time since the countries went to war in 1971. India said the air strike was in response to a recent suicide attack on Indian troops based in Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan said there were no casualties and that its airforce repelled India's aircraft.
Image: AFP/ISPR
No military solution
Some Indian civil society members believe New Delhi cannot exonerate itself from responsibility by accusing Islamabad of creating unrest in the Kashmir valley. A number of rights organizations demand that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government reduce the number of troops in Kashmir and let the people decide their fate.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/T. Mustafa
No end to the violence
On February 14, at least 41 Indian paramilitary police were killed in a suicide bombing near the capital of India-administered Kashmir. The Pakistan-based Jihadi group, Jaish-e-Mohammad, claimed responsibility. The attack, the worst on Indian troops since the insurgency in Kashmir began in 1989, spiked tensions and triggered fears of an armed confrontation between the two nuclear-armed powers.
Image: IANS
A bitter conflict
Since 1989, Muslim insurgents have been fighting Indian forces in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir - a region of 12 million people, about 70 percent of whom are Muslim. India and Pakistan have fought two of their three wars since independence in 1947 over Kashmir, which they both claim in full but rule in part.
India strikes down a militant rebellion
In October 2016, the Indian military has launched an offensive against armed rebels in Kashmir, surrounding at least 20 villages in Shopian district. New Delhi accused Islamabad of backing the militants, who cross over the Pakistani-Indian "Line of Control" and launch attacks on India's paramilitary forces.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/C. Anand
Death of a Kashmiri separatist
The security situation in the Indian part of Kashmir deteriorated after the killing of Burhan Wani, a young separatist leader, in July 2016. Protests against Indian rule and clashes between separatists and soldiers have claimed hundreds of lives since then.
Image: Reuters/D. Ismail
The Uri attack
In September 2016, Islamist militants killed at least 17 Indian soldiers and wounded 30 in India-administered Kashmir. The Indian army said the rebels had infiltrated the Indian part of Kashmir from Pakistan, with initial investigations suggesting that the militants belonged to the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad group, which has been active in Kashmir for over a decade.
Image: UNI
Rights violations
Indian authorities banned a number of social media websites in Kashmir after video clips showing troops committing grave human rights violations went viral on the Internet. One such video that showed a Kashmiri protester tied to an Indian army jeep — apparently as a human shield — generated outrage on social media.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/
Demilitarization of Kashmir
Those in favor of an independent Kashmir want Pakistan and India to step aside and let the Kashmiri people decide their future. "It is time India and Pakistan announce the timetable for withdrawal of their forces from the portions they control and hold an internationally supervised referendum," Toqeer Gilani, the president of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front in Pakistani Kashmir, told DW.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/J. Singh
No chance for secession
But most Kashmir observers don't see it happening in the near future. They say that while the Indian strategy to deal strictly with militants and separatists in Kashmir has partly worked out, sooner or later New Delhi will have to find a political solution to the crisis. Secession, they say, does not stand a chance.
