Germany was quick to announce a pause in asylum applications from Syrian nationals following the fall of dictator Bashar Assad on December 8.

Just 36 hours after Syrian rebels declared they had liberated the capital, Damascus, the German government suspended decisions on more than 47,000 pending asylum claims from Syrians. Within hours, France, Britain, Italy, and several others followed suit.

The decisions heightened nervousness among the more than 1.5 million Syrians who have settled in Europe since the civil war began in 2011. 

Particularly alarming were remarks by Austrian Interior Minister Gerhard Karner, who instructed his ministry to prepare a program for the "orderly repatriation and deportation to ." German politicians have made similar calls.

European governments appeared to be seizing the moment of Assad's ouster to address growing public unease over high migration rates.

Even before the pause was announced, more than 108,000 asylum cases from Syrians were pending across EU states at the end of October, according to the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA).

The swift decisions marked a stark contrast to the welcoming attitudes seen at the height of the 2015/16 European migrant crisis. Back then, Germans greeted Syrian refugees at railway stations with water bottles and food.

No quick fix to Syria's turmoil

The announcements were even more unsettling given the ongoing chaos in Syria, where the leading rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is struggling to establish a caretaker government.

Compounding the situation was the apparent reversal of a key reason Europe wanted to welcome Syrian nationals. Beyond addressing humanitarian needs, politicians argued at the time that Syrians would help alleviate critical labor market shortages.

Anastasia Karatzas, a policy analyst at the Brussels-based European Policy Center (EPC) think tank, noted that the European Union had recently stepped up efforts to return more refugees to their home countries before Assad's removal despite the huge demand for more workers.

"There's an urgent need across the EU to address labor shortages, but also to address labor exploitation, especially of irregular migrant workers. But there is now a risk that prioritizing [refugee] returns might overshadow these other priorities," Karatzas told DW.

Integration of Syrians 'better than expected'

Integrating such a large number of refugees —  972,000 Syrians in Germany's case — in such a short period was certainly challenging. However, Philipp Jaschke, a labor market researcher at the Nuremberg-based Institute for Employment Research (IAB), thinks Germany's efforts "worked much better than expected." 

"[The refugees] left Syria suddenly. Many of them had traumatic experiences while escaping. When they arrived, they were largely unprepared for the German labor market, and there were many institutional barriers," Jaschke told DW.

Those hurdles included lengthy delays for asylum decisions, learning German, completing studies and obtaining recognized qualifications before entering the workforce, which takes years. In the meantime, refugees' job prospects are often limited to low-skilled positions.

IAB surveys suggest that back home, more than 90% of Syrians worked in occupations that require vocational training or a university degree in Germany. When they reached Germany, around a third initially worked in low-skilled jobs. Six years later, a quarter of them were still in these roles.

Jobless rate high for multiple reasons

As of September 2024, approximately 287,000 Syrians were employed in Germany, a report by the IAB published on December 13 revealed. Their average employment rate has fallen as large numbers arrived more recently and are still in the early phase of the integration process.

The longer refugees remain in Germany, however, the more likely they are to find a job. IAB found that around 61% of Syrian refugees were employed seven years after their arrival.

Although the 37% official jobless rate for Syrians is far higher than that of Germany's national unemployment rate of 5.9% in November, cultural and other factors have played a significant role. More Syrian women than men are not in the workforce. Many held traditional family roles back home and have a lower likelihood of prior work experience. They're also more likely to be mothers to young children.

The EPC's Karatzas said discrimination and "persistent difficulties with the recognition of skills and qualifications" were other issues, referring to Europe as a whole.

Syrians fill key gaps in labor market

In Germany, almost 30% of female refugees work in the social and cultural service sectors, including education and child care. One in 10 works in retail. More than one-fifth of male refugees work in logistics or manufacturing. Syrians also have a meaningful presence in the hospitality, health care, and construction sectors, according to the IAB.

"These sectors have severe labor shortages," Jaschke said, with a high demand for workers and a comparatively low labor supply. "So, Germany would really lose if these people left."

As to the question of how many would now like to return, a recent IAB-led survey found that more than 90% of Syrian-born refugees who entered Germany between 2013 and 2019 stated that they wanted to stay permanently. However, that could change as a result of the latest developments in Syria.

"Almost 40% have lived here since 2015 or longer. They are making a living here, built social networks, many have brought their family, so it's likely that many will stay," Jaschke told DW.

Too soon to talk about repatriation?

Those who haven't integrated into Europe or failed to find work in a reasonable time may be pushed to return or may want to return. Many more may be keen to help rebuild the Syrian economy from the nearly 14-year-long civil war. German conservative lawmaker Jens Spahn told broadcaster n-tv recently that they should be offered government support to repatriate and spoke of a relocation bonus of €1,000 ($1,055) per person and the use of government-chartered planes.

As arguments continue to swirl over the issue, Frank Werneke warns against a large-scale repatriation effort. The head of Verdi, a German services union, hopes ministers will "approach the situation with a cool head."

In an interview with the German news agency DPA, Werneke said it was important that Syria's transitional government first assemble "the mostdemocratic conditions as possible," considering the needs of the country's many ethnic and religious groups.

At a European level, Karatzas is concerned that anti-migrant sentiment may prompt a knee-jerk reaction from many EU states and warned them against making hasty decisions. 

"Policies need to be made to ensure returns take place in a well-managed way, based on evidence and data about their [refugees] contributions [to the labor market]."

Edited by: Uwe Hessler