Tensions are increasing as Germany's February 23 federal election draws closer, with the campaign becoming rougher as candidates fight for every vote.

But the mood grew even more tense after the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), currently leading in the polls along with the allied Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), introduced two motions and a bill into parliament to tighten immigration and asylum policies.

The conservative bloc was unable to agree on a joint approach with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) of Chancellor Olaf Scholz or the environmentalist Greens. But CDU leader Friedrich Merz decided to forge ahead anyway, accepting the support of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in order to get a majority for the motion with his five-point-plan on January 29. Two days later, however, Merz failed to get anti-immigration legislation passed, despite continued far-right support.

The SPD, Greens and Left Party accused the CDU leader of breaking a consensus of non-cooperation with the far right that has held in post-war German democracy since 1949. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets to protest against Merz's actions. 

What do voters say?

But how do voters rate the CDU's approach to limiting immigration? That was one of the questions asked by the research institute infratest-dimap in the current ARD-Deutschlandtrend, for which 1,302 German voters were interviewed between February 3 and 5.

The high level of approval for the CDU among AfD supporters (86%) was predictable. But 62% of the CDU supporters also thought Merz's approach was correct.

Overall, 43% of Germans surveyed thought the CDU's actions in the Bundestag were right. However, half of Germans also rejected the CDU's parliamentary maneuvers: Almost one in four agree with the CDU's push to limit migration, but not if it involves accepting help from the AfD. Another quarter of voters rejected the CDU approach in the Bundestag as fundamentally wrong, including the majority of SPD, Green, and socialist Left Party voters.

Should other parties cooperate with the AfD?

Germans are sharply divided on the issue. Around 49% of those polled said it was unacceptable to pass a law with AfD votes, while 44% said it was. Some 56% of respondents found it unacceptable for a party to draw up laws in parliament with the AfD, and 66% rejected the idea of including the AfD in forming a government.

On Monday, Merz told party delegates that he would not enter into any form of cooperation with the far right, which he described as his party's main adversary. The CDU, he said, could not work with a party that wants to leave NATO, the euro and the European Union — but do people still believe him?

While Merz's credibility has suffered on this point, the ARD Deutschlandtrend shows no negative effect on the perception of the CDU politician or on the attitude towards a government under CDU leadership.

Would Merz make a good chancellor?

A third of those surveyed were in favor of the CDU leading the future German government, some 4% more than in last month's Deutschlandtrend. Another 17% are in favor of another SPD-led government.

At the same time, 33% think Merz can be trusted to be a good chancellor — 5 points more than at the end of last year. 

Merz's competitors fare worse. Some 67% are dissatisfied with the work of the Green Party's chancellor candidate, Robert Habeck. Alice Weidel, the AfD's chancellor candidate, is rejected by 69%. As for Chancellor Scholz: As many as 74% of those surveyed are dissatisfied with his work.

SPD heading for an election disaster

Scholz's poor ratings are reflected in the general opinion polls. If an election were to take place this weekend, the SPD would only get 15% of the vote — 10 points lower than in the last federal election in 2021.

Meanwhile, the votes the CDU instigated in the Bundestag have apparently not damaged the party's ratings. In the current ARD-Deutschlandtrend, the CDU has increased slightly and extended its lead to 31% — as has the AfD, which has increased its vote share to 21%. The Greens have lost some ground and now have 14% (-1), while the Left Party has a prospect of entering parliament with 5% of the vote. But both the new populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the former member of the outgoing center-left coalition, the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) are tipped to garner less than the 5% of the vote necessary for representation in the Bundestag.

What coalitions are possible?

Together, the CDU and AfD would have a comfortable majority of the seats in parliament.

There would also be government options for the CDU/SPD and CDU/Greens. The SPD, remains the party that more voters say they would like to see as a coalition partner for the CDU. Some 19% (+1) favor the AfD, 14% (-2) and the Greens in this role.

Among CDU supporters a coalition with the FDP (36%) or the SPD (32%) are the most popular. Only 8% are in favor of a coalition with the Greens, and only 6% want to form a coalition with the AfD.

Overall, concern is growing that it could be difficult to build a stable government.

This article was originally written in German.

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