India faces an unprecedented diplomatic challenge after a court in Bangladesh this week sentenced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death for crimes against humanity.   

Hasina has been living in exile in India since a massive youth-led uprising ended her 15-year rule in August 2024.

UN investigators estimate up to 1,400 people may have been killed in the violent repression of the mass protests.

Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) on Monday found Hasina guilty of incitement, issuing orders to kill, and inaction to prevent the atrocities, as it delivered the ruling.

Hasina called the verdict "biased and politically motivated" in a statement issued from her refuge in India.

Dhaka renewed its call for Hasina's extradition following Monday's verdict, saying it was an "obligatory responsibility" for New Delhi to ensure her return.

But India's foreign ministry remained non-committal in its response.

New Delhi said it is "committed to the best interests of the people of Bangladesh" and "will always engage constructively with all stakeholders to that end."

Will India extradite Sheikh Hasina?

Foreign policy experts in India say New Delhi is unlikely to force Hasina to return to Bangladesh.

"The trial and death sentence on Hasina is widely regarded as not adhering to basic legal standards. Moreover, it is also viewed as political vendetta," Pinak Ranjan Chakravarthy, a former high commissioner to Bangladesh, told DW.

"India will have to take these into consideration to take a decision as per provisions of the bilateral extradition treaty signed in 2013," he added.

Sanjay Bhardwaj of Jawaharlal Nehru University's (JNU) Center for South Asian Studies shares a similar view.

"India is expected to weigh all options carefully before deciding its position on Sheikh Hasina's case. Central to New Delhi's assessment will be questions over whether the tribunal's verdict was politically motivated, violated due process, or reflected the influence of a coordinated syndicate," he said.

Hasina was tried in absentia by the ICT and was assigned a state-appointed lawyer, raising questions about due process and fairness.

Global rights watchdogs like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch criticized the trial as unfair and unjust.

The UN, meanwhile, said the verdict was "an important moment" for victims of last year's crackdown, but stressed it remains opposed to the death penalty in all cases.

Given the criticism, Bharadwaj said, India will need to evaluate the legal and political merits of the case objectively, rather than reacting to immediate developments.

Tensions rise between New Delhi and Dhaka

Hasina's continued exile in India, however, is likely to further jeopardize bilateral relations between the neighboring countries.

New Delhi's ties with Dhaka have already been shaken, with the interim government in Bangladesh holding India at arm's length, a reversal from the close relations both nations enjoyed during Hasina's rule.

Anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh has also been on the rise amid the political shifts and diplomatic tensions.

Meanwhile, China — India's main rival in the region — has swiftly moved in to capitalize on the situation and bolster ties with Bangladesh.

The head of the interim government, Nobel Peace laureate Muhammad Yunus, traveled to China for his first state visit in March, a trip that saw him secure investments, loans and grants.

India forced to engage with Bangladesh demands

Despite the challenging diplomatic landscape, Sreeradha Datta, a Bangladesh expert at the Jindal School of International Affairs, said India is unlikely to make an immediate move following the tribunal's verdict on Hasina.

But she underlined that the extradition process can no longer be ignored.

"The process will be lengthy and legally complex, requiring more than just a simple request. India will likely seek legal opinions and provide a formal response, moving away from its previous pattern of silence or vague statements about multi-stakeholder engagement," Datta told DW.

"India will need to carefully balance its approach, avoiding letting the extradition issue dominate all discussions with Bangladesh. Post-elections, both should be able to engage on trade and increase the people-to-people activities," she added.

New Delhi set to wait out Yunus?

Another factor influencing India's decision-making is the interim nature of the Yunus-led government.

"India is likely to hold off on any clear position until an elected government takes charge in Dhaka, allowing it to engage within a more legitimate and stable political framework," said Bhardwaj, of JNU.

Bangladesh plans to conduct a general election in the first half of February next year.

But the interim administration has banned the activities of Hasina's Awami League party ahead of the polls.

It also recently declared that the party had been removed from "the official list of registered political parties" by the country's electoral commission.

"The disqualification of the Awami League from participating in the elections scheduled in early 2026 would also weigh heavily in India's calculus," Bhardwaj said.

Ajay Bisaria, a former Indian envoy to Pakistan, told DW that India will "prioritize loyalty to longstanding friends over any short-term gains with the current regime, even in the face of turbulent regional politics."

He said these are "hard choices" for New Delhi. 

Nevertheless, the diplomat said helping Hasina "would serve as a message to other friends of India in the region, that they would not be abandoned when circumstances change in their home country."

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru