Alexander Lukashenko came to power in the first elections in independent Belarus on July 20, 1994. There have not been any elections that opposition parties and western states have recognized as free and fair since. Experts believe the country has been on the path to totalitarianism for the past four years at least.

"The last real opportunity to topple Lukashenko was in 1996," said Ales Mikhalevich, a presidential candidate in the 2010 elections. That summer, there was a confrontation between the Supreme Council, the Belarusian parliament and Lukashenko, after dozens of lawmakers signed a petition to impeach him. The year before, riot police had beaten up opposition lawmakers.

Lukashenko conducted referendums and reinstated certain Soviet-era state symbols, such as the red-and-green national flag. He got rid of the white, red and white flag and the Belarus coat of arms that had been restored in the wake of the country's independence in 1991. He also extended the president's presidential term by two years. Then he dissolved parliament.

Political opponents 'disappeared'

At the end of the 1990s, Lukashenko's political opponents began to disappear. Former Interior Minister Yuri Zakharenka disappeared on May 7, 1999. In September of the same year, Viktar Hanchar, the head of the Central Election Commission, and his advisor, a businessman named Anatoly Krasovsky, disappeared under suspicious circumstances. Many observers regard these events as turning points.

At the end of 2019, Yury Garavsky, an erstwhile member of a Belarusian special unit, admitted in an interview with DW that he had been involved in the abductions of Zakharenka, Hanchar and Krasovsky and gave details of their murders. He said that the order to eliminate Hanchar had come "from above."

From authoritarianism to totalitarianism

The European Union (EU), the US, the UK, Ukraine and others have not recognized Lukashenko as president since the 2020 elections. Political observers believe he rules "with bayonets."

"Over the course of 30 years, people's views, the economic situation and the social structure of the country have changed," said Valery Karbalevich, a political analyst who has written a biography of the Belarusian strongman. "In the mid-1990s, the former republics of the Soviet Union opted for democratization and market-economy reforms. But Lukashenko aborted this transformation and introduced an authoritarian regime that is now developing into a totalitarian one."

He said that Lukashenko had increasingly turned to Russia, and isolated itself from the EU behind an "iron curtain." "The most important consequences are totalitarianism in domestic politics and the country's turning away from Western civilization towards the east, towards Asia," he added.

Dissent leads to jail

In 1994, Lukashenko himself was part of the opposition. Now, he has his opponents arrested and suppresses dissent. Any criticism of the authorities can land somebody in jail, as can the "wrong" comments and likes on social media. People who express support for Ukraine, which is defending itself against a Russian war of aggression, also face imprisonment.

The largest protests in Belarus' history took place in 2020. Hundreds of thousands took to the streets to demonstrate against what they said were rigged elections. The authorities violently cracked down on protesters, arresting thousands. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who ran against Lukashenko after her husband's arrest and is widely thought to have received more votes than the president, now lives in Lithuania, from where she lead the organization Democratic Forces of Belarus.

As of July 17, 2024, there are 1,388 political prisoners in Belarus — a country with a population of nine million. Between 2022 and 2023, human rights organizations counted 400 people sentenced on politically motivated criminal charges and 3,300 on politically motivated administrative charges. It would appear, then, that mass repression has become commonplace.

Prominent political prisoners are mostly kept in solitary confinement. These include Nobel Prize-winning pro-democracy activist and prisoner of conscience Ales Bialiatski, the banker and philanthropist Viktar Babaryka and his colleague Maria Kalesnikova.

Belarus depends on Russia

Most NGOs and independent media organizations have been closed down or relocated abroad. Some 30 media workers are in detention.

Economically, Belarus is dependent on Russia and has hardly any relations with the EU.

Lukashenko, who turns 70 this year, has not seemed to be in the best of health at recent appearances, fueling rumors he might be ill. He has admitted himself to feeling "tired."

The next presidential elections are due in 2025. Lukashenko has not yet confirmed that he will take part in them. But he clearly does not want to step down as head of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly, which has become the primary organ of the Belarusian government after being granted wide-reaching powers in 2022. 

"No matter who comes after Lukashenko, even if it's someone from his circle, they will need society's support and will have to take the path of 'de-Lukashenko-ization,'" said Karbalevich. "Everything Lukashenko has done will have to be reversed, and a market economy, democratization and a path out of international isolation will have to be found. But Russia could stand in the way. A lot will depend on what the situation is in Russia, Belarus, and with the war in Ukraine."

This article was originally written in Russian.