"When Putin talks about the threat from NATO, he means the United States and possibly Britain. When Lukashenko talks about the threat from NATO, he means Poland and Lithuania," said Polish journalist Michal Potocki.

Potocki thinks Belarus' authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, deems it a threat that Polish television station Belsat broadcasts from Poland to Belarus in the Belarusian language, and that the Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is living in exile in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius.

Lukashenko's view of Poland is primarily influenced by the events of August 2020, when there were mass protests in Belarus against the disputed presidential election, said Alexander Friedman, a Belarusian historian. "Lukashenko believes that just because Nexta is based in Warsaw, the Polish state must be behind it," he said.

The Nexta media outlet, distributed via Telegram, was founded by the Belarusian activist Stsiapan Putsila, who currently lives in Warsaw. More than 2 million subscribers turned to Nexta during the protests to stay informed about what was happening. Belarus has classified the channel as extremist.

Belarusian political scientist Alexander Klaskovsky stressed that Lukashenko has always been anti-Western, but said his rhetoric intensified after he "became an accomplice in Russia's aggression against Ukraine." Klaskovsky said Lukashenko is simply trying to justify himself with statements like: "If we hadn't attacked, they would have attacked us first."

What lies behind Lukashenko's antipathy toward Poland?

Friedman assumes Lukashenko's antipathy toward neighboring Poland developed during the Soviet era. Back then, Poland was seen as a country that still bore characteristics of the "feudal era."

Klaskovsky also believes Lukashenko's prejudices are based on stereotypes about the "exploitative Polish ruling class."

"He thinks the Poles want to conquer half, or even all, of Belarus. Actually, there isn't a single serious politician in Poland who pursues revanchist ideas," said Klaskovsky.

Klaskovsky said Belarusian propaganda picks on historical themes in order to manipulate people. "There was indeed a time when the western part of Belarus was under Polish rule, and the Belarusians who lived there were not treated well. But should we reopen these wounds? Today, Poles and Ukrainians are demonstrating that historical resentments can be put aside," he said.

Vadim Gigin, head of the Belarusian national public association Belarusian Society Knowledge, has expressed the view that Minsk should demand reparations from Warsaw for the years 1921 to 1939, when western Belarus was part of Poland.

"This issue has arisen against the background of Polish claims against Germany and has been seized on by propagandists in Belarus and Russia," said historian Friedman. However, from a legal point of view, he said, Belarusian claims are completely untenable.

Destruction of Polish gravesites

Belarus has a difficult relationship with all its neighbors, said Klaskovsky, adding that Russia is the only one it doesn't dare confront. It does, however, trample on the Poles, in this case literally: the graves of Polish soldiers.

In July, graves of soldiers from the Polish Home Army in Belarus were destroyed, triggering outrage in Warsaw. The Home Army was a resistance and military organization in German-occupied Poland during World War II. It was made up of volunteers, whose goal was the liberation of Poland from the occupying German army. After the Soviet Red Army invaded they were disarmed; many officers were shot, or imprisoned in the Soviet gulag. Some continued their resistance, this time against communist rule.

Friedman believes the destruction of the graves replicates the Soviet attitude to places of burial. "If cemeteries are not their own but those of their enemies, they are simply destroyed," he said. "That was what the Soviets did to Jewish and Catholic cemeteries, for example, and also to German ones after the war. The Belarusian state power sees the graves of soldiers of the Polish Home Army as enemy gravesites."

According to Friedman, it is no coincidence that Belarusian propaganda concentrates on the Home Army, or on Poland of the 1920s, a period that occupies a special place in Polish memorial culture. "This is an important historical period for the current conservative government in Poland, and attacking this period is also an attack on the current Polish government," he said.

Is Belarusian propaganda achieving its objectives?

According to Polish journalist Michal Potocki, the destruction of graves and demands for reparations do hurt Warsaw — and the Belarusian government knows this. Potocki also pointed out that independent organizations of the Polish minority in Belarus are being suppressed, and Polish schools are being closed.

Klaskovsky refers to Lukashenko's announcement that he intended to clarify the "orientation" of Belarusian citizens who possessed a "Karta Polaka," an identity card issued by the Polish state confirming that a person belongs to the Polish nation. More than 160,000 Belarusians with Polish roots are in possession of such a document. Lukashenko declared that these people should report to the Belarusian authorities. Klaskovsky said Lukashenko believes these people to be a so-called "fifth column" — Belarusian citizens whose loyalty is actually to Poland.

However, Klaskovsky believes that, in spite of the propaganda, Belarusian society does not regard Poland as an enemy. Opinion polls indicate that the propaganda narrative isn't working; meanwhile, the rhetoric from Belarusian authorities scarcely registers in Poland.

"People do discuss it, but it's not the No. 1 topic," said Potocki. "Poles talk about the economic situation and the energy crisis, and when the conversation turns to foreign policy, of course they talk about Ukraine. As far as Lukashenko is concerned, he's just seen as a vassal of Russia."

This article was originally published in Russian