After the federal election, chances are high that the lower house of parliament could swell to more than 900 members. Only China's National People's Congress is larger. And this could lead to problems.
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Germany's lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, has a whopping 709 seats. This makes it the second-largest legislative body in the world. That number could balloon to well over 900 after Germany's federal elections on September 26.
The problem this poses is greater than a crunch to fit that many chairs in the chamber. How can compromises be made, and how can backbenchers be heard, in a parliament so unwieldy?
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The system was conceived in postwar Germany as a compromise with smaller parties, who worried they would consistently fail to win seats, along with assuaging concerns about instability that had come with political fragmentation before the war.
As it stands now, Germany has 299 electoral districts. This means that the Bundestag should in theory have 598 seats.
But if a party wins more seats than it's entitled to, based on the share of second vote results, they are allowed to keep them. These are called "overhang" seats. To make up for this, overall other parties also get more seats, to ensure that the relative proportion of parties in the Bundestag reflects the election result.
In the last federal election in September 2017, that resulted in a total of 111 extra seats.
What led to the dramatic increase?
"This worked well when Germany had two big parties; that is, two parties that received the vast majority of votes," explained constitutional law professor Sophie Schönberger, referring to Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and the the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), which could be characterized as a rival at some times and partner at others.
For decades after World War II, either the SPD or the CDU easily captured a majority of the overall vote, as well as most of the direct mandates in the constituencies.
Instead of two big parties, "we have three medium-sized ones and a smattering of a few others," Schönberger said, with the Greens as number three.
"This creates a vicious circle, in which there have to be more and more lawmakers from each party in order to maintain the balance of power," said comparative politics researcher Klaus Stüwe, pointing out that a 2012 ruling from Germany's top court stipulated that the number of overhang seats could not be capped.
Things have become even more complicated, he explained, as people may use their first vote not for the candidate of the party they prefer, but for one who they assume has a chance of getting past the rival they do not. "In the last 30 years, more people are splitting their ticket," Stüwe observes.
German election 2021: Governing coalition options
A German government needs a 50% majority in parliament, but no one party can get so much voter support. So they agree on coalitions — and the next government will be no exception. Here is an overview of the options.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/F. Hörhager
Deciphering the color code
The center-right Christian Democrat CDU and its Bavarian sister party CSU are symbolized by the color black. The center-left Social Democrat SPD is red, as is the socialist Left Party. The neoliberal Free Democrats' (FDP) color is yellow. And the Greens are self-explanatory. German media often refer to color combinations and national flags, using them as shorthand for political coalitions.
Image: Fotolia/photocrew
Black, red, green — the Kenya coalition
A coalition of center-right Christian Democrats (black) and center-left Social Democrats (red) plus the Green Party would secure a comfortable majority. Such a coalition has been in power in the state of Brandenburg. On a federal level this would be a first.
Image: Fotolia/aaastocks
Black, yellow and green — the Jamaica coalition
The center-right Christian Democrats have often teamed up with the much smaller pro-free market Free Democrats (FDP) at the state and the national level over the years. Taking in the Greens to form a three-way coalition would be an option attractive to many in the CDU. But the Greens and the FDP do not make easy bedfellows, and a similar attempt failed after the last election in 2017.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/dpaweb
Black, red, yellow — the Germany coalition
The center-right CDU and the center-left SPD plus the business-focused FDP. This combination would easily clear the 50% threshold in parliament, and would be the preferred option for business leaders and high-income earners. But if the SPD takes the lead we'd see red, black, yellow — a less conservative option.
Image: imago images/Waldmüller
Red, red, green
The Social Democrats teaming up with the Greens and the Left Party is a specter the conservatives like to raise whenever they perform badly in the polls. But the SPD and Left Party have a difficult history. And the Left's extreme foreign policy positions would likley hamper negotiations.
Image: Imago/C. Ohde
Red, yellow, green — a 'traffic light' coalition
The free-market-oriented liberal FDP has in the past generally ruled out federal coalitions sandwiched between the Social Democrats and the Greens. But this year, the FDP has not ruled out any options. Germany's traditional kingmaker party may above all be keen to return to power — no matter in which color combination.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/J.Büttner
Black and red, red and black — the 'grand coalition'
A "grand coalition" of CDU and SPD, the "big tent parties," has been in power for the past eight years with the conservatives taking the lead. If the election results allow it, this combination may continue in government ... with the stronger party naming the chancellor.
Image: imago images/Shotshop
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What's the problem with having a big Bundestag?
Considering it is "not unlikely" that the Bundestag get bigger than it has ever been after September's vote, Schönberger expects this to translate into problems for German democracy.
"There is the issue of the increasing impossibility of ensuring healthy and concise debate, as well as the problem of whether 'backbenchers' will ever get a chance to speak," Schönberger said. "And there is the question of the cost of paying the salaries of so many lawmakers," she added.
Members of the Bundestag earn a little more than €10,000 ($11,800) per month before taxes, and in addition are given tax-free spending money of €4,560 per month. They also receive €12,000 to outfit their office.
Each lawmaker employs staff while in office, and receives a generous pension when they retire. An ever-expanding Bundestag, therefore, means an ever-expanding burden on taxpayers.
"It was a good idea, trying to combine the best of both worlds," Stüwe said. "But now, our electoral system has become so complex that people don't even understand it anymore."
How do German elections work?
04:25
What reform efforts have been made?
In recent years, the FDP, Greens, and Left Party have forged an alliance to lobby for a significant decrease in the number of districts.
"That wouldn't fix everything, but it would help," Schönberger said.
Stüwe agreed that a reduction in the number of districts is the only "viable" solution, but added that the CDU'S Bavarian sister party, the CSU, has put up strong resistance to a drastic reduction. This is because it benefits the most from the current setup, as it wins most constituencies in Bavaria, Germany's second-largest state by population.
The grand coalition of the SPD and CDU that is currently in power agreed to a slight cutback in constituencies to 280 — which may be implemented for the next federal elections in 2025.
Germany's colorful coalition shorthand
Foreign flags and even traffic lights are used to describe the various coalitions that emerge in German elections. Coalitions are common under Germany's proportional representation system.
Image: Getty Images
'Traffic light' coalition — Red, Yellow, Green
Since 2021 Germany has been governed by a center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), ecologist Greens, and free-market-oriented neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), whose color is yellow. They started out as a self-declared "Fortschrittskoalition" (progress coalition) but got mired in infighting along the way.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/J.Büttner
Black-red coalition
The Conservative's black combined with transformative red is the color code when the Christian Democrats govern in a "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats. This combination of Germany's two big tent parties, was in power for eight years until 2021, led by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Image: picture-alliance/R. Goldmann
'Pizza Connection' — precursor to Black and Green
When Bonn was still Germany's capital, conservative and Greens lawmakers started meeting informally in an Italian restaurant, in what became known as the 'Pizza Connection.' At the regional level, Baden-Württemburg's Greens-CDU coalition has governed since 2016 and Germany's most populous state of North-Rhine Westphalia has had a Black-Green government since 2022.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
'Jamaica' option — black, yellow and green
A three-way deal between the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats FDP), whose color is yellow did not come about at national level in 2017 after the FDP called off talks. It has been tested at a state level, where Schleswig-Holstein had a "Jamaica" government until they went Black-Green in 2022.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/dpaweb
Black, Red, Green — like Kenya's flag
The eastern German state of Saxony has been governed by a coalition of CDU, SPD and Greens, headed by the state's popular Premier Michael Kretschmer. He is hoping to be able to stay in power despite the rise of the right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) which is campaigning on an anti-immigrant and anti-NATO agenda.
Image: Fotolia/aaastocks
The Germany coalition — Black, Red and Yellow
The eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt has been governed by a coalition led by the CDU's popular Premier Rainer Haseloff. He has teamed up with the SPD and the FDP. The alliance of unlikely bedfellows was the only viable option to ward off the threat by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
Image: Hoffmann/Caro/picture alliance
Black and Orange
Since 2018 Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) has been governing with the Free Voters (FV), whose color is Orange. The FV is a grass-roots populist and far-right-leaning party and is led by its controversial chairman Hubert Aiwanger. Strong in rural areas of southern and eastern Germany, the Freie Wähler is seeking a larger role at the national level and currently has three MEPs.
Image: Privat
Blackberry coalition
In graphics showing opinion polls, the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is shown in violet. That may be fitting, as it combines socialist, far-left (red) with populist right wing (blue) ideas in its platform. Although the party was only founded in 2024, it is doing so well in the eastern German states that it may well be asked to join coalition governments. Possibly led by the CDU (Black).
Image: Oliver Berg/dpa/picture alliance
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