Thailand's election commission confirmed on Monday that early national elections will take place on February 8. 

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul last week triggered the vote amid a decades-old territorial dispute with neighboring Cambodia that has once again turned deadly. Dozens of people including soldiers and civilians have died on both sides as heavy combat over contested borders entered a second week.

The country's parliament was dissolved on Friday after getting approval from King Maha Vajiralongkorn. Anutin claimed on Thursday that he wanted to "return power to the people."

By receiving royal backing to dissolve parliament, Anutin avoided a no-confidence vote that could have swiftly ended his tenure. Some analysts say that the PM is capitalizing on a nationalist wave whipped up by the border conflict with Cambodia.

Border clashes shape election strategy

"With the rising nationalistic sentiment in the country, that actually works for him because people are quite supportive toward his actions when they compare with the previous government, [which] was not using strong or aggressive action against Cambodia," said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a professor of political science at Thailand's Ubon Ratchathani University. 

PM Anutin has taken a much tougher tone on the border conflict than his predecessor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra. 

Thailand's Constitutional Court removed Paetongtarn from office over a leaked phone call with veteran Cambodian leader Hun Sen in June. 

In the call, Paetongtarn referred to the elderly former dictator as "uncle," professed love and respect for him, and criticized her own military commanders — considered a red line in a country where the military has significant clout.

Memories of that call will make it hard for Paetongtarn's Pheu Thai party, even under new leadership, to campaign effectively in the current climate, said Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow with the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

Napon said Thailand's largest party, the People's Party, may struggle because of its reputation for wanting to rein in the military, which younger Thais especially see as wielding undue political influence.

The People's Party is a reincarnation of the pro-reform party, Move Forward, which the courts dissolved last year after ruling that its efforts to soften the country's lese majeste law — which shields the Thai royal family from criticism — violated the constitution.

Move Forward's calls to reform the military served it well in the national elections of 2023, when it won the most House seats of any party, said Napon, who is also managing director of the Thailand Future Institute, a local think tank.

Reforming Thailand's constitution

But amid ongoing clashes with Cambodia, Napon added, "the military is seen as the rightful defender of national sovereignty, so the People's Party's stance … may not play well with some of these more nationalist supporters, which certainly are probably in quite large numbers now."

Anutin, the tycoon-turned-politician who leads the Bhumjaithai Party, was due to dissolve parliament by late January in any case, as part of a deal he struck in September with the People's Party. In return, the People's Party agreed to back his bid for prime minister.

The same deal committed Bhumjaithai to starting the process of rewriting the constitution and putting it to a referendum, another key goal of the People's Party.

The day before Anutin won the king's approval last week to dissolve parliament, however, the two parties squabbled over the role the Senate should play in the amendment process.

Officially, senators have no party affiliation. But Bhumjaithai has been accused of rigging last year's Senate polls to get some of its preferred candidates elected, which it denies.

When Bhumjaithai insisted last week that any constitutional amendment must be approved by at least one-third of the Senate, the People's Party balked and began planning a no-confidence vote. 

Verapat Pariyawong, a policy fellow at the University of London SOAS, said the conservative Bhumjaithai and reformist People's Party were bound to butt heads over the Senate and the constitution.

By pushing to give the Senate what amounts to a veto over any proposed amendments, he said, Anutin very likely anticipated the People's Party's reaction.

"It was never his intention to allow the amendment of the constitution to proceed in the way that the [People's] Party expected. So, he basically engineered an excuse to call a new election," and at a time that suited him best, said Verapat.

Since taking power following the collapse of the previous administration, Anutin has also convinced several lawmakers to defect to Bhumjaithai and appointed a number of provincial governors who might be able to rally yet more voters to his party.

An opinion poll published on Saturday in the Bangkok Post shows most voters are undecided about their choice of PM candidate and political party.

In any case, the party with the most seats won't necessarily take power. Post-poll coalition talks could put any number of parties at the head of the next administration. 

Analysts note that the outcome of the February election will likely impact the government's handling of Thailand-Cambodia border dispute.

"If you take the position of Anutin, he's going to be very willing to side with the military leaders, whereas the [People's Party] will be quite the opposite, so Pheu Thai can in the end be a bit of a moderate option," said Verapat.

But the military has long had a reputation of standing apart from civilian governments, pledging its loyalties first and foremost to the monarchy. It has staged at least a dozen coups over the past century.

"That is the military culture in Thailand … They almost act like they are independent even when we talk about other things, regardless of the border issues," said Titipol.

For any administration that emerges from the February 8 vote, he said the lead party would need to win big if it hopes to exert much influence over how the military actually conducts itself on the border.

With none of the parties likely to win an outright majority, Napon sees little chance of that happening.

"The civilian government will have to demonstrate strong leadership and control over the military before the conflict can be effectively managed, and of course I don't think that's in the picture," he said.

Edited by: Keith Walker