After strong showings in two other state elections in eastern Germany, the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) may very well overtake the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) in Brandenburg. Yet if the AfD does become the strongest political party in the state surrounding Berlin, it is expected to remain politically isolated, as other parties have ruled out forming a coalition that includes the far-right populists.

The party has been classified as "clearly right-wing extremist" in some states and is currently under observation by the country's domestic intelligence service. 

AfD and SPD leading polls

Polls show the AfD and SPD are in a neck-and-neck race. Both parties may be able to win over 25% of the vote. Far behind them are the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and the upstart Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), with projections putting them each at around 15%.

The Greens and the Left Party, on the other hand, could fail to clear the 5% threshold needed to reenter the state parliament in Potsdam. The neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), a coalition partner in the federal government, has not held a seat in Brandenburg's state parliament since 2014.

Three state premiers in 34 years

Despite the fractured political landscape, the SPD has retained relatively strong support in Brandenburg. Once part of communist East Germany (GDR), the state has been governed by the SPD ever since German reunification in 1990. And, according to the polls, the SPD is likely to continue its coalition with the CDU and the Greens following the elections on September 22.

For the SPD, this election is about keeping Brandenburg as a bastion of support. State premier Dietmar Woidke is running for his fourth term in office. A victory would put him ahead of his two predecessors, Manfred Stolpe and Matthias Platzeck, who each won three terms.

No other state in the former GDR has known such continuity in political leadership: three state premiers over 34 years, all from the same party. Nor were they imported from the west, as was especially common in fellow eastern states Saxony and Thuringia after German reunification.

Berliners relocate to surrounding areas

With just under 2.6 million inhabitants, Brandenburg is the 10th most populous of Germany's 16 states and has the second-lowest population density. Just under 12% of the population has immigrant roots, compared to almost 30% nationwide. 

The rural flight and economic downturn that has plagued much of the eastern states post-reunification has not occurred in Brandenburg; the number of inhabitants has remained almost unchanged. The state's rich natural environment is one of its big attractions: more than a third of the state is covered with forests, and it is dotted with lakes, biosphere reserves such as the Spreewald, and the biodiverse Oderbruch marshlands on the German-Polish border. So it's no surprise that ever since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, more and more Berliners have been moving there to get out of the city and closer to nature. With good transportation infrastructure, the pull of the German capital is felt most strongly in the most affluent areas surrounding the city.

Tesla factory state's top employer

Another factor in its economic success is the Berlin-Brandenburg International Airport (BER), which opened in 2020. Named after Willy Brandt, the first SPD politician to become chancellor, the airport is the third-largest in Germany after Frankfurt and Munich and serves as a regional hub.

Since 2022, Tesla has been producing electric cars near the airport. The Grünheide site is home to US entrepreneur Elon Musk's first factory in Europe. With around 7,000 employees from 50 countries, Tesla has quickly become Brandenburg's largest private employer.

Tesla has also benefited from the region's diverse science and research environment. As in neighboring Berlin, numerous universities have students from all over the world. The European University Viadrina in Frankfurt an der Oder is particularly international, with around 30% of its students coming from abroad. Its campus is directly on the river that marks the border between Germany and Poland.

Cultural landmarks trace state history

Brandenburg's largest university, with 20,000 students, is located in the state capital of Potsdam. For centuries, Prussian kings, including Frederick the Great, have shaped the city's intellectual and visual identity. The numerous palaces and gardens, especially Sanssouci Park, are tourist magnets. So, too, is the Barberini Museum, privately financed by Hasso Plattner, co-founder of the globally successful IT company SAP.

And Cecilienhof Palace was the scene of world history in July and August 1945, when the victorious powers met there at the end of World War II. At the Potsdam Conference, the US, Great Britain, and the Soviet Union agreed to divide Germany and Berlin into four occupation zones. This era only came to an end 45 years later with the reunification of Germany.

Bridge of Spies

Brandenburg is also a big player in European film production. Major German films have been coming out of Potsdam for close to a century. In the decades when Germany was divided, the Glienicke Bridge between Potsdam and West Berlin became a symbol of the Cold War between the opposing political camps. It was on this bridge that captured spies were exchanged.

Director Steven Spielberg made the 2015 film "Bridge of Spies" based on this history. Much of the production was carried out in Europe's largest film studio, located in Potsdam's Babelsberg district. Here, Marlene Dietrich appeared in front of the camera in the 1929 classic "The Blue Angel." Two years earlier, Fritz Lang produced his expressionist silent film "Metropolis" there as well. And much of the crime series "Babylon Berlin," which has been broadcast in over 60 countries, has also been produced here since 2017.