Ahead of his meeting with the German chancellor, Boris Johnson has again urged the EU to reopen Brexit negotiations. The silence so far has been deafening. What is Johnson hoping to achieve in Berlin?
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Two worlds are set to collide when UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson meets German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday to discuss the Brexit impasse.
On the one hand, there's Johnson's impulsive, often oafish behavior coupled with populist rhetoric and a tendency to be economical with the truth. On the other, there's Merkel, who epitomizes a methodical and no-nonsense approach to dealing with difficult situations.
Even in the best of times, it would be a stretch of the imagination to picture the two of them finding much common ground. But given the heated and turbulent nature of the discussions on Brexit, a rapprochement looks as distant as ever.
"The cynical interpretation is that this is for a domestic audience, [Johnson] saying that he's trying one last time. The EU is going to say no, the withdrawal agreement needs to stay. And then he can come back with that kind of extra legitimacy," says Dr. Charlotte Galpin, a lecturer in German and European Politics at the University of Birmingham.
The Brexit blame game
The UK prime minister is essentially playing the blame game and will tell Merkel and Macron that the EU must offer a new deal or accept that the UK will leave the bloc without one. And their answer will likely be as predictable and consistent as it has been all along: We will not reopen the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) between the EU and the UK and we most certainly won't be removing the backstop.
The latter is a key component of the WA which would come into play if no long-term trade deal has been agreed by the end of 2020 that avoids a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. It would involve the UK retaining a close relationship with the EU for an indefinite period.
Johnson's riposte has been equally curt: In that case, he says, he would have no qualms about taking the UK out of the EU without a deal on October 31.
The tone between the two, and arguably more so from the British side, has become increasingly belligerent. "[Johnson and his team] are using a lot of military language that constructs the agreement as a kind of war, that we're going into battle and that Britain shouldn't capitulate, that the opponents in the UK are collaborating with the EU. I think these meetings are part of that performance," Galpin told DW.
Brexit timeline: Charting Britain's turbulent exodus from Europe
Britain shocked the world when it voted to leave the European Union on June 24, 2016. DW traces the major events that have defined Brexit so far.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/Y. Mok
June 2016: 'The will of the British people'
After a shrill referendum campaign, nearly 52% of British voters opted to leave the EU on June 23. Polls had shown a close race before the vote with a slight lead for those favoring remaining in the EU. Conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron, who had campaigned for Britain to stay, acknowledged the "will of the British people" and resigned the following morning.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Rain
July 2016: 'Brexit means Brexit'
Former Home Secretary Theresa May replaced David Cameron as prime minister on July 11 and promised the country that "Brexit means Brexit." May had quietly supported the Remain campaign before the referendum. She did not initially say when her government would trigger Article 50 of the EU treaty to start the two-year talks leading to Britain's formal exit.
Image: Reuters/D. Lipinski
March 2017: 'We already miss you'
May eventually signed a diplomatic letter over six months later on March 29, 2017 to trigger Article 50. Hours later, Britain's ambassador to the EU, Tim Barrow, handed the note to European Council President Donald Tusk. Britain's exit was officially set for March 29, 2019. Tusk ended his brief statement on the decision with: "We already miss you. Thank you and goodbye."
Image: picture alliance / Photoshot
June 2017: And they're off!
British Brexit Secretary David Davis and the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, kicked off talks in Brussels on June 19. The first round ended with Britain reluctantly agreeing to follow the EU's timeline for the rest of the negotiations. The timeline split talks into two phases. The first would settle the terms of Britain's exit, and the second the terms of the EU-UK relationship post-Brexit.
Image: picture alliance/ZUMAPRESS.com/W. Daboski
July-October 2017: Money, rights and Ireland
The second round of talks in mid-July began with an unflattering photo of a seemingly unprepared British team. It and subsequent rounds ended with little progress on three phase one issues: How much Britain still needed to pay into the EU budget after it leaves, the post-Brexit rights of EU and British citizens and whether Britain could keep an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Image: Getty Images/T.Charlier
December 2017: Go-ahead for phase 2
Leaders of the remaining 27 EU members formally agreed that "sufficient progress" had been made to move on to phase two issues: the post-Brexit transition period and the future UK-EU trading relationship. While Prime Minister Theresa May expressed her delight at the decision, European Council President Tusk ominously warned that the second stage of talks would be "dramatically difficult."
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/dpa/O. Matthys
July 2018: Johnson, Davis resign
British ministers appeared to back a Brexit plan at May's Chequers residence on July 6. The proposal would have kept Britain in a "combined customs territory" with the EU and signed up to a "common rulebook" on all goods. That went too far for British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis, who resigned a few days later. May replaced them with Jeremy Hunt and Dominic Raab.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/G. Fuller
September 2018: No cherries for Britain
May's Chequers proposal did not go down well with EU leaders, who told her at a summit in Salzburg in late September that it was unacceptable. EU Council President Tusk trolled May on Instagram, captioning a picture of himself and May looking at cakes with the line: "A piece of cake perhaps? Sorry, no cherries." The gag echoed previous EU accusations of British cherry-picking.
Image: Reuters/P. Nicholls
November 2018: Breakthrough in Brussels
EU leaders endorsed a 585-page draft divorce deal and political declaration on post-Brexit ties in late November. The draft had been widely condemned by pro- and anti-Brexit lawmakers in the British Parliament only weeks earlier. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned along with several other ministers, and dozens of Conservative Party members tried to trigger a no-confidence vote in May.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Dunand
December 2018: May survives rebellion
In the face of unrelenting opposition, May postponed a parliamentary vote on the deal on December 10. The next day, she met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to seek reassurances that would, she hoped, be enough to convince skeptical lawmakers to back the deal. But while she was away, hard-line Conservative lawmakers triggered a no-confidence vote. May won the vote a day later.
Image: Getty Images/S. Gallup
January 2019: Agreement voted down
The UK Parliament voted 432 to 202 against May's Brexit deal on January 16. In response to the result, European Council President Donald Tusk suggested the only solution was for the UK to stay in the EU. Meanwhile, Britain's Labour Party called for a no-confidence vote in the prime minister, her second leadership challenge in as many months.
Image: Reuters
March 2019: Second defeat for May's deal
May tried to get legal changes to the deal's so-called Irish backstop in the weeks that followed. She eventually got assurances that the UK could suspend the backstop under certain circumstances. But on March 12, Parliament voted against the revised Brexit deal by 391 to 242. EU leaders warned the vote increased the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. Two days later, MPs voted to delay Brexit.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/T. Ireland
March 2019: Extension after second defeat
Following the second defeat of May's divorce deal, the European Council met in Brussels on March 21 to decide what to do next. EU leaders gave May two options: delay Brexit until May 22 if MPs vote for the withdrawal deal or delay it until April 12 if they vote against the deal. If the deal were to fail again in Parliament, May could ask for a long extension.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein
March 2019: Brexit deal rejected a third time
On March 29, the day that the UK was supposed to leave the EU, British lawmakers voted for a third time against May's deal — rejecting it this time with a vote of 344 to 286. Following the latest defeat, May approached the main opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in an attempt to find a compromise, angering hardline Brexiteers in her own Conservative party.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/House of Commons/M. Duffy
April 2019: Brexit delayed until Halloween
With the April 12 deadline looming after the third defeat of May's deal, EU leaders met again in Brussels to discuss a second delay. The only question was how long should it be? In the end, the UK and EU agreed to a "flexible" extension until October 31 — which can end sooner if the Brexit deal is approved. The UK had to take part in EU elections in May because their exit wasn't secured in time.
Image: Reuters/E. Plevier
May 2019: Prime Minister Theresa May resigns
Weeks of talks between Prime Minister Theresa May and the Labour party to reach a deal proved unsuccessful and further eroded her political capital. She triggered an angry backlash from her party after she tried to put the option of a second referendum on the table. The series of failures led May to announce her resignation, effective June 7, in an emotional address.
Image: Reuters/H. McKay
June 2019: Search for a new prime minister
After Theresa May announced on June 7 that she would leave office, other members of her Conservative party began clamoring for the top job. Within a month, the leadership battle came down to Jeremy Hunt (left), an EU proponent who fears a no-deal scenario, and Boris Johnson (right), one of the main proponents of Brexit.
July 2019: Prime Minister Boris Johnson
At the end of July 2019, Johnson was officially named Theresa May's successor as British prime minister. "We are going to energize the country, we are going to get Brexit done by October 31," he said after he was elected leader of the Conservative Party.
Image: Imago Images/Zuma/G. C. Wright
September 2019: Johnson's election threat
Conservative rebels and opposition MPs backed efforts to delay an October 31 Brexit deadline in fear of a no-deal departure. In response, Johnson called for a general election, saying his government cannot rule without a mandate after he stripped 21 rebel MPs of their Conservative status. The Labour Party said it would not back elections until legislation to block a no-deal Brexit was in place.
In late September, Britain's highest court ruled that Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament ahead of the UK's planned exit was unlawful. "This was not a normal prorogation in the run-up to a Queen's Speech," said the Supreme Court. Political rivals immediately called on Johnson to leave his post. Johnson said he would abide by the court ruling, though said he "strongly" disagreed.
Image: Reuters/H. Nicholls
October 2019: A new deal
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to secure a deal with European negotiators that would allow the UK to leave the EU in an orderly manner. The deal received unanimous backing from the leaders of 27 other member states. But an attempt to get the UK Parliament to sign off on the deal failed. Instead, Parliament pushed for the Brexit deadline to be extended until the end of January 2020.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein
December 2019: Lawmakers vote for Johnson's Withdrawal Bill
On December 22, UK lawmakers vote for Prime Minister Johnson's European Union withdrawal bill, which will see a leave date of January 31 2020 enshrined in law. Getting a majority to vote to pass the bill in the lower house has proven a major sticking point for the PM, but following a general election Johnson's Conservative party won control of the house and the bill passed with a 124 majority.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/House of Commons
December 2020: EU, UK 'finally' reach trade deal
After months of disagreements over fishing rights and future business rules, the EU and UK clinched a post-Brexit trade deal on Christmas Eve. Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed the deal, saying the UK has "taken back control of our laws and our destiny." The deal will allow the UK and the EU to trade without tariffs, but also impose limitations on free movement and financial services.
Image: Pippa Fowles/Xinhua/imago images
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The German government has, of course, been doing its homework for a no-deal scenario. A recent internal finance ministry document indicates a "high probability" of a no-deal Brexit on October 31, saying it's "inconceivable" that Johnson will soften his position on the Irish backstop. The paper underlines Berlin's firm opposition to any renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement as demanded by the British prime minister and says it's "crucial" that all EU member states remain united and not "lose their nerve," faced with the prospect of a disorderly Brexit.
Germany has already passed more than 50 laws and other measures to prepare for a no-deal Brexit. These include a recent agreement between BaFin, the German financial watchdog, and its British equivalent the FCA on cross-border financial services. Berlin has also hired 900 more customs officials to deal with an expected backlog of clearance procedures at borders.
The perceived wisdom is that Johnson thinks Germany needs the UK more than the other way around. It's certainly the case that the UK is an important economic partner, no more and no less.
"What is more important to Germany is the single market and trade with the remaining 27 [EU] member states. So there's a limit to what Germany is going to offer. And then there's the other practical thing which is that the Brexit negotiations have since the beginning been delegated to the Commission under Michel Barnier, so Germany on its own does not actually have a lot of control over the Brexit process," says Galpin.
How do Germans think Brexit will pan out?
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Johnson's reasoning appears to be that if he can somehow sway Merkel to offer concessions then the rest would follow suit. "The idea is that the German chancellor is much more flexible and apparently open towards taking a more lenient policy or a more flexible approach to the negotiations. Certainly, France seems much more hard-line. So if he can get some concessions from Merkel, you might stand a chance of reopening negotiations. So I think that's the calculation," says Professor Hussein Kassim, a senior fellow at the "UK in a Changing Europe" think tank.
Given the ploys and counter-ploys, the barely veiled threats, and the "ball-is-in-your-court" attitude displayed by the UK so far, it's quite a feat that the EU has stuck to its position. "The EU 27 have actually been remarkably unified on this issue the whole way through. If you think about how divided they are on other issues facing Europe the fact that they've stuck to one consistent line is quite astounding," says Galpin.
Johnson will be hoping, at the very least, that he can sow some seeds of doubt and pander to his supporters at home where the debate is very different, according to Kassim. "There isn't necessarily an appreciation among the British public or the political class or the media about what exactly is going on. So I think that under those circumstances the diplomatic mission might be interpreted at face value. People are not going to be critical or questioning in a way that might be anticipated."