Theresa May could have been handed a poisoned chalice by promising a parliamentary vote on a Brexit deal. Her position is starting to look increasingly weak, Barbara Wesel writes.
Advertisement
It was another of those Brexit rounds in Brussels: Short, pointless and lacking in results. David Davis warbles on about great progress, Michel Barnier puts the damper on the Brexit minister’s enthusiasm. But suddenly the French diplomat awoke from his torpor: Was it true, that the UK had only two weeks left to make an offer on the Brexit bill, a journalist asked. "Yes, I think so." Finally some clarity. No money, no trade talks, such is the new reality. A turn of events which introduced a welcome bit of drama in the ongoing boredom.
Over the weekend turned the knife some more: "Everybody should prepare himself for a no-deal," he said to a French Sunday newspaper. It was not his option but a possibility. All member states and businesses should prepare themselves, and the European Union was already doing so.
And where did Barnier see the problems? Talks are extraordinarily difficult and need time. A number of consequences have been underestimated on the British side. And some don’t want to take responsibility for what they have decided. All of this is the diplomat’s rather abbreviated version of five frustrating months at the negotiating table.
Brexit timeline: Charting Britain's turbulent exodus from Europe
Britain shocked the world when it voted to leave the European Union on June 24, 2016. DW traces the major events that have defined Brexit so far.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/Y. Mok
June 2016: 'The will of the British people'
After a shrill referendum campaign, nearly 52% of British voters opted to leave the EU on June 23. Polls had shown a close race before the vote with a slight lead for those favoring remaining in the EU. Conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron, who had campaigned for Britain to stay, acknowledged the "will of the British people" and resigned the following morning.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Rain
July 2016: 'Brexit means Brexit'
Former Home Secretary Theresa May replaced David Cameron as prime minister on July 11 and promised the country that "Brexit means Brexit." May had quietly supported the Remain campaign before the referendum. She did not initially say when her government would trigger Article 50 of the EU treaty to start the two-year talks leading to Britain's formal exit.
Image: Reuters/D. Lipinski
March 2017: 'We already miss you'
May eventually signed a diplomatic letter over six months later on March 29, 2017 to trigger Article 50. Hours later, Britain's ambassador to the EU, Tim Barrow, handed the note to European Council President Donald Tusk. Britain's exit was officially set for March 29, 2019. Tusk ended his brief statement on the decision with: "We already miss you. Thank you and goodbye."
Image: picture alliance / Photoshot
June 2017: And they're off!
British Brexit Secretary David Davis and the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, kicked off talks in Brussels on June 19. The first round ended with Britain reluctantly agreeing to follow the EU's timeline for the rest of the negotiations. The timeline split talks into two phases. The first would settle the terms of Britain's exit, and the second the terms of the EU-UK relationship post-Brexit.
Image: picture alliance/ZUMAPRESS.com/W. Daboski
July-October 2017: Money, rights and Ireland
The second round of talks in mid-July began with an unflattering photo of a seemingly unprepared British team. It and subsequent rounds ended with little progress on three phase one issues: How much Britain still needed to pay into the EU budget after it leaves, the post-Brexit rights of EU and British citizens and whether Britain could keep an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Image: Getty Images/T.Charlier
December 2017: Go-ahead for phase 2
Leaders of the remaining 27 EU members formally agreed that "sufficient progress" had been made to move on to phase two issues: the post-Brexit transition period and the future UK-EU trading relationship. While Prime Minister Theresa May expressed her delight at the decision, European Council President Tusk ominously warned that the second stage of talks would be "dramatically difficult."
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/dpa/O. Matthys
July 2018: Johnson, Davis resign
British ministers appeared to back a Brexit plan at May's Chequers residence on July 6. The proposal would have kept Britain in a "combined customs territory" with the EU and signed up to a "common rulebook" on all goods. That went too far for British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis, who resigned a few days later. May replaced them with Jeremy Hunt and Dominic Raab.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/G. Fuller
September 2018: No cherries for Britain
May's Chequers proposal did not go down well with EU leaders, who told her at a summit in Salzburg in late September that it was unacceptable. EU Council President Tusk trolled May on Instagram, captioning a picture of himself and May looking at cakes with the line: "A piece of cake perhaps? Sorry, no cherries." The gag echoed previous EU accusations of British cherry-picking.
Image: Reuters/P. Nicholls
November 2018: Breakthrough in Brussels
EU leaders endorsed a 585-page draft divorce deal and political declaration on post-Brexit ties in late November. The draft had been widely condemned by pro- and anti-Brexit lawmakers in the British Parliament only weeks earlier. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned along with several other ministers, and dozens of Conservative Party members tried to trigger a no-confidence vote in May.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Dunand
December 2018: May survives rebellion
In the face of unrelenting opposition, May postponed a parliamentary vote on the deal on December 10. The next day, she met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to seek reassurances that would, she hoped, be enough to convince skeptical lawmakers to back the deal. But while she was away, hard-line Conservative lawmakers triggered a no-confidence vote. May won the vote a day later.
Image: Getty Images/S. Gallup
January 2019: Agreement voted down
The UK Parliament voted 432 to 202 against May's Brexit deal on January 16. In response to the result, European Council President Donald Tusk suggested the only solution was for the UK to stay in the EU. Meanwhile, Britain's Labour Party called for a no-confidence vote in the prime minister, her second leadership challenge in as many months.
Image: Reuters
March 2019: Second defeat for May's deal
May tried to get legal changes to the deal's so-called Irish backstop in the weeks that followed. She eventually got assurances that the UK could suspend the backstop under certain circumstances. But on March 12, Parliament voted against the revised Brexit deal by 391 to 242. EU leaders warned the vote increased the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. Two days later, MPs voted to delay Brexit.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/T. Ireland
March 2019: Extension after second defeat
Following the second defeat of May's divorce deal, the European Council met in Brussels on March 21 to decide what to do next. EU leaders gave May two options: delay Brexit until May 22 if MPs vote for the withdrawal deal or delay it until April 12 if they vote against the deal. If the deal were to fail again in Parliament, May could ask for a long extension.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein
March 2019: Brexit deal rejected a third time
On March 29, the day that the UK was supposed to leave the EU, British lawmakers voted for a third time against May's deal — rejecting it this time with a vote of 344 to 286. Following the latest defeat, May approached the main opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in an attempt to find a compromise, angering hardline Brexiteers in her own Conservative party.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/House of Commons/M. Duffy
April 2019: Brexit delayed until Halloween
With the April 12 deadline looming after the third defeat of May's deal, EU leaders met again in Brussels to discuss a second delay. The only question was how long should it be? In the end, the UK and EU agreed to a "flexible" extension until October 31 — which can end sooner if the Brexit deal is approved. The UK had to take part in EU elections in May because their exit wasn't secured in time.
Image: Reuters/E. Plevier
May 2019: Prime Minister Theresa May resigns
Weeks of talks between Prime Minister Theresa May and the Labour party to reach a deal proved unsuccessful and further eroded her political capital. She triggered an angry backlash from her party after she tried to put the option of a second referendum on the table. The series of failures led May to announce her resignation, effective June 7, in an emotional address.
Image: Reuters/H. McKay
June 2019: Search for a new prime minister
After Theresa May announced on June 7 that she would leave office, other members of her Conservative party began clamoring for the top job. Within a month, the leadership battle came down to Jeremy Hunt (left), an EU proponent who fears a no-deal scenario, and Boris Johnson (right), one of the main proponents of Brexit.
July 2019: Prime Minister Boris Johnson
At the end of July 2019, Johnson was officially named Theresa May's successor as British prime minister. "We are going to energize the country, we are going to get Brexit done by October 31," he said after he was elected leader of the Conservative Party.
Image: Imago Images/Zuma/G. C. Wright
September 2019: Johnson's election threat
Conservative rebels and opposition MPs backed efforts to delay an October 31 Brexit deadline in fear of a no-deal departure. In response, Johnson called for a general election, saying his government cannot rule without a mandate after he stripped 21 rebel MPs of their Conservative status. The Labour Party said it would not back elections until legislation to block a no-deal Brexit was in place.
In late September, Britain's highest court ruled that Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament ahead of the UK's planned exit was unlawful. "This was not a normal prorogation in the run-up to a Queen's Speech," said the Supreme Court. Political rivals immediately called on Johnson to leave his post. Johnson said he would abide by the court ruling, though said he "strongly" disagreed.
Image: Reuters/H. Nicholls
October 2019: A new deal
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to secure a deal with European negotiators that would allow the UK to leave the EU in an orderly manner. The deal received unanimous backing from the leaders of 27 other member states. But an attempt to get the UK Parliament to sign off on the deal failed. Instead, Parliament pushed for the Brexit deadline to be extended until the end of January 2020.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein
December 2019: Lawmakers vote for Johnson's Withdrawal Bill
On December 22, UK lawmakers vote for Prime Minister Johnson's European Union withdrawal bill, which will see a leave date of January 31 2020 enshrined in law. Getting a majority to vote to pass the bill in the lower house has proven a major sticking point for the PM, but following a general election Johnson's Conservative party won control of the house and the bill passed with a 124 majority.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/House of Commons
December 2020: EU, UK 'finally' reach trade deal
After months of disagreements over fishing rights and future business rules, the EU and UK clinched a post-Brexit trade deal on Christmas Eve. Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed the deal, saying the UK has "taken back control of our laws and our destiny." The deal will allow the UK and the EU to trade without tariffs, but also impose limitations on free movement and financial services.
Image: Pippa Fowles/Xinhua/imago images
23 images1 | 23
The Irish border illusion
Ireland was easy, that’s what David Davis said from the beginning. Both sides agreed, that there should not be a hard border on the Irish isle after Brexit in order to maintain peace and the Good Friday Agreement. The solution was therefore to simply ignore the new border between the EU and Northern Ireland. It’s a pity that Dublin now punctures this serviceable illusion.
"If London will not allow for Northern Ireland to stay in the customs union and internal market, there will have to be checks at a future border," says Ireland's foreign minister Simon Covenant. "I know it’s a difficult issue for the negotiating team, but Brexit poses difficult choices." What was needed was a solution that works for both sides.
Ireland On Ice
01:21
So let’s once more square the circle. And let’s do this within the next two weeks, please, because progress at the December council is not only about the money, it is also about the Irish question.
"English nationalists have planted a bomb under the settlement (the Good Friday agreement from 1998) that brought peace to Northern Ireland," says Irish columnist Finton O'Toole . As if the region had not seen enough bombs.
The pound falls and despair rises
What is weaker than a kitten? A prime minister who causes the currency to drop. On Monday traders in London reported a sharp fall in the British pound caused by Theresa May’s political weakness. All through last week her lack of grip and strength had been bemoaned on a daily basis. Forty MPs are supposedly now prepared to sign a letter of no confidence. Only eight to go and May is on the way out, which might be a relief for all concerned.
The prime minister has by now lost two ministers, one over sexual sleaze and another over lack of discipline. After Michael Fallon's groping came Priti Patel’s solo attempt to create her own Israel policy. But at least the process was fun: thousands followed the trajectory of her plane on the trip back from Africa and her last ride to Downing Street, where she was to receive her marching orders.
But careful: what looks like a victory may turn out to be a poisoned chalice. If Parliament says no to the Brexit deal, the result will be an exit by car crash or cliff edge. The vote will come so late, there cannot possibly be enough time to renegotiate the deal. Is this really what MP’s wanted? They are in any case not given the choice to cancel Brexit. But there is time before October 2018 for remainers and soft Brexiteers alike to figure out what to do.
The bad boys of Brexit are back
For more than a year they were the worst of enemies. Michael Gove had ignominiously stabbed Boris Johnson in the back during last year’s leadership bid. Gove wanted to become prime minister so badly that he declared fellow Brexiteer Boris Johnson to be unfit for high office. He was of course horribly right but it was still an unpopular move and Theresa May won the race.
Brexit however needs every man on deck and Boris was ready for reconciliation. Therefore the two bad boys of Brexit wrote a letter to the Prime Minister demanding more energy in Brexit negotiations. May was to show more confidence and end all attempts in the Tory party to block Brexit. This memo was of course leaked to the newspapers in order to create the sufficient pressure on Theresa May. Gove and Johnson both are her ministers. If she were not so horribly weak, she would need to continue and fire them both for disloyal behavior.
Like a puppet on a string
Observers say Theresa May will soon be ready to promise more money on the Brexit-bill. Remarks made by Michael Gove on the BBC’s Sunday politics show are interpreted as the go-ahead: He would not block May if she were to hand over extra cash to Brussels in order to secure a good Brexit deal, said the Minister giving his blessings. Does that make Theresa May look like a puppet on the string of the Brexiteers or is the impression mistaken?