On the long shadow of Donald Trump, Brexit in cherry picking mode, the sinister absence of Boris, a trip to the North for Michel Barnier and another bit of nostalgia.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/Luca Bruno
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Donald Trump threw his long dark shadow over Theresa May and her Brexit speech on Friday. The president had just blithely announced a global trade war. In the meantime there has been the usual spiral of escalations and things have taken a turn to the worse. Trump thinks that trade wars are easy to win and has widened the scope to German cars. Many of which are produced in the US, but details have never interested the president. And all this landed the UK prime minister in the unenviable position of having to warn off Donald Trump.
Was not free trade, in the beginning, one of the main arguments for Brexit? Britain only needed to be free from the shackles of the EU in order to sign the most glorious trade deals – or so went the reasoning. And the first port of call would be the United States. According to a leaked government paper at least half of this Brexit bonus was supposed to come from a free trade agreement with the United States. As things stand, we wish the Brits the best of luck.
Prime Minister May would like to pick the orchestra – and the musicImage: Getty Images/AFP/A. Weiss
Theresa May's speech and avenues of cherry trees
There had been enough leaks and briefings before the prime minister's final and conclusive speech on Brexit that expectations were not overly high. But maybe she would it least pull a small rabbit from her hat? Optimists were disappointed, however, because there was in the end neither a rabbit nor a hat.
Instead we got an avenue of cherry trees and the full run of Theresa May's Brexit slogans from "deep and special relationship” to "take back control" and "frictionless trade." Next was the list of items the British PM does not want after Brexit: No customs union, no single market, no hard border in Northern Ireland.
May: Neither side can have 'exactly what we want' in Brexit
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Mrs May also gave an outline of what she would like after Brexit, and this is where she starts to pick her basket of cherries: A very special deal with the EU, which would allow Britain to stick to some European rules and keep access to the single market. At the same time she wants to diverge in other segments of the economy. She also wants a special customs arrangement that grants her the advantages of the customs union but at the same time allows Britain to conclude its own trade deals. And she would like to remain as member of some choice EU agencies – yet more cherry picking.
At the same time, a hard border between the two countries on the Emerald Isle is to be avoided at all costs. One would need smart technology that could scan the contents of all trucks and the minds of all people before they crossed the invisible border. A nice idea, if you discount the non-existence of such a miraculous system and the obvious fact that the EU cannot leave one of its borders wide open.
All this was a lot of wishful thinking with just a hint of reality peeping through: "Some hard choices have to be made." But that's for later. For now we have Theresa Mays marvelous new phrase: The Brexit deal should be "bold and ambitious." And that is what the prime minister would like the EU to deliver.
Brexit timeline: Charting Britain's turbulent exodus from Europe
Britain shocked the world when it voted to leave the European Union on June 24, 2016. DW traces the major events that have defined Brexit so far.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/Y. Mok
June 2016: 'The will of the British people'
After a shrill referendum campaign, nearly 52% of British voters opted to leave the EU on June 23. Polls had shown a close race before the vote with a slight lead for those favoring remaining in the EU. Conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron, who had campaigned for Britain to stay, acknowledged the "will of the British people" and resigned the following morning.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Rain
July 2016: 'Brexit means Brexit'
Former Home Secretary Theresa May replaced David Cameron as prime minister on July 11 and promised the country that "Brexit means Brexit." May had quietly supported the Remain campaign before the referendum. She did not initially say when her government would trigger Article 50 of the EU treaty to start the two-year talks leading to Britain's formal exit.
Image: Reuters/D. Lipinski
March 2017: 'We already miss you'
May eventually signed a diplomatic letter over six months later on March 29, 2017 to trigger Article 50. Hours later, Britain's ambassador to the EU, Tim Barrow, handed the note to European Council President Donald Tusk. Britain's exit was officially set for March 29, 2019. Tusk ended his brief statement on the decision with: "We already miss you. Thank you and goodbye."
Image: picture alliance / Photoshot
June 2017: And they're off!
British Brexit Secretary David Davis and the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, kicked off talks in Brussels on June 19. The first round ended with Britain reluctantly agreeing to follow the EU's timeline for the rest of the negotiations. The timeline split talks into two phases. The first would settle the terms of Britain's exit, and the second the terms of the EU-UK relationship post-Brexit.
Image: picture alliance/ZUMAPRESS.com/W. Daboski
July-October 2017: Money, rights and Ireland
The second round of talks in mid-July began with an unflattering photo of a seemingly unprepared British team. It and subsequent rounds ended with little progress on three phase one issues: How much Britain still needed to pay into the EU budget after it leaves, the post-Brexit rights of EU and British citizens and whether Britain could keep an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Image: Getty Images/T.Charlier
December 2017: Go-ahead for phase 2
Leaders of the remaining 27 EU members formally agreed that "sufficient progress" had been made to move on to phase two issues: the post-Brexit transition period and the future UK-EU trading relationship. While Prime Minister Theresa May expressed her delight at the decision, European Council President Tusk ominously warned that the second stage of talks would be "dramatically difficult."
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/dpa/O. Matthys
July 2018: Johnson, Davis resign
British ministers appeared to back a Brexit plan at May's Chequers residence on July 6. The proposal would have kept Britain in a "combined customs territory" with the EU and signed up to a "common rulebook" on all goods. That went too far for British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis, who resigned a few days later. May replaced them with Jeremy Hunt and Dominic Raab.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/G. Fuller
September 2018: No cherries for Britain
May's Chequers proposal did not go down well with EU leaders, who told her at a summit in Salzburg in late September that it was unacceptable. EU Council President Tusk trolled May on Instagram, captioning a picture of himself and May looking at cakes with the line: "A piece of cake perhaps? Sorry, no cherries." The gag echoed previous EU accusations of British cherry-picking.
Image: Reuters/P. Nicholls
November 2018: Breakthrough in Brussels
EU leaders endorsed a 585-page draft divorce deal and political declaration on post-Brexit ties in late November. The draft had been widely condemned by pro- and anti-Brexit lawmakers in the British Parliament only weeks earlier. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned along with several other ministers, and dozens of Conservative Party members tried to trigger a no-confidence vote in May.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Dunand
December 2018: May survives rebellion
In the face of unrelenting opposition, May postponed a parliamentary vote on the deal on December 10. The next day, she met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to seek reassurances that would, she hoped, be enough to convince skeptical lawmakers to back the deal. But while she was away, hard-line Conservative lawmakers triggered a no-confidence vote. May won the vote a day later.
Image: Getty Images/S. Gallup
January 2019: Agreement voted down
The UK Parliament voted 432 to 202 against May's Brexit deal on January 16. In response to the result, European Council President Donald Tusk suggested the only solution was for the UK to stay in the EU. Meanwhile, Britain's Labour Party called for a no-confidence vote in the prime minister, her second leadership challenge in as many months.
Image: Reuters
March 2019: Second defeat for May's deal
May tried to get legal changes to the deal's so-called Irish backstop in the weeks that followed. She eventually got assurances that the UK could suspend the backstop under certain circumstances. But on March 12, Parliament voted against the revised Brexit deal by 391 to 242. EU leaders warned the vote increased the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. Two days later, MPs voted to delay Brexit.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/T. Ireland
March 2019: Extension after second defeat
Following the second defeat of May's divorce deal, the European Council met in Brussels on March 21 to decide what to do next. EU leaders gave May two options: delay Brexit until May 22 if MPs vote for the withdrawal deal or delay it until April 12 if they vote against the deal. If the deal were to fail again in Parliament, May could ask for a long extension.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein
March 2019: Brexit deal rejected a third time
On March 29, the day that the UK was supposed to leave the EU, British lawmakers voted for a third time against May's deal — rejecting it this time with a vote of 344 to 286. Following the latest defeat, May approached the main opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in an attempt to find a compromise, angering hardline Brexiteers in her own Conservative party.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/House of Commons/M. Duffy
April 2019: Brexit delayed until Halloween
With the April 12 deadline looming after the third defeat of May's deal, EU leaders met again in Brussels to discuss a second delay. The only question was how long should it be? In the end, the UK and EU agreed to a "flexible" extension until October 31 — which can end sooner if the Brexit deal is approved. The UK had to take part in EU elections in May because their exit wasn't secured in time.
Image: Reuters/E. Plevier
May 2019: Prime Minister Theresa May resigns
Weeks of talks between Prime Minister Theresa May and the Labour party to reach a deal proved unsuccessful and further eroded her political capital. She triggered an angry backlash from her party after she tried to put the option of a second referendum on the table. The series of failures led May to announce her resignation, effective June 7, in an emotional address.
Image: Reuters/H. McKay
June 2019: Search for a new prime minister
After Theresa May announced on June 7 that she would leave office, other members of her Conservative party began clamoring for the top job. Within a month, the leadership battle came down to Jeremy Hunt (left), an EU proponent who fears a no-deal scenario, and Boris Johnson (right), one of the main proponents of Brexit.
July 2019: Prime Minister Boris Johnson
At the end of July 2019, Johnson was officially named Theresa May's successor as British prime minister. "We are going to energize the country, we are going to get Brexit done by October 31," he said after he was elected leader of the Conservative Party.
Image: Imago Images/Zuma/G. C. Wright
September 2019: Johnson's election threat
Conservative rebels and opposition MPs backed efforts to delay an October 31 Brexit deadline in fear of a no-deal departure. In response, Johnson called for a general election, saying his government cannot rule without a mandate after he stripped 21 rebel MPs of their Conservative status. The Labour Party said it would not back elections until legislation to block a no-deal Brexit was in place.
In late September, Britain's highest court ruled that Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament ahead of the UK's planned exit was unlawful. "This was not a normal prorogation in the run-up to a Queen's Speech," said the Supreme Court. Political rivals immediately called on Johnson to leave his post. Johnson said he would abide by the court ruling, though said he "strongly" disagreed.
Image: Reuters/H. Nicholls
October 2019: A new deal
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to secure a deal with European negotiators that would allow the UK to leave the EU in an orderly manner. The deal received unanimous backing from the leaders of 27 other member states. But an attempt to get the UK Parliament to sign off on the deal failed. Instead, Parliament pushed for the Brexit deadline to be extended until the end of January 2020.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein
December 2019: Lawmakers vote for Johnson's Withdrawal Bill
On December 22, UK lawmakers vote for Prime Minister Johnson's European Union withdrawal bill, which will see a leave date of January 31 2020 enshrined in law. Getting a majority to vote to pass the bill in the lower house has proven a major sticking point for the PM, but following a general election Johnson's Conservative party won control of the house and the bill passed with a 124 majority.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/House of Commons
December 2020: EU, UK 'finally' reach trade deal
After months of disagreements over fishing rights and future business rules, the EU and UK clinched a post-Brexit trade deal on Christmas Eve. Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed the deal, saying the UK has "taken back control of our laws and our destiny." The deal will allow the UK and the EU to trade without tariffs, but also impose limitations on free movement and financial services.
Image: Pippa Fowles/Xinhua/imago images
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Where was Boris?
Boris Johnson missed the occasion. He was obviously absent from the row of Theresa May's cabinet members at the Brexit speech. Boris had, however, in his own manner already lobbed a grenade into proceedings. In a letter, the foreign minister created doubt over the British commitment to avoid a hard border in Ireland. If there were to be just a soft border, something just a bit border-like, he demanded, what could be the harm in that? Surely the Good Friday Agreement could deal with a few fences and customs officials?
Is Boris Johnson thinking of the Irish border as he runs through the streets of London?Image: Getty Images/L. Neal
To further his cause Boris then went to explain himself on a radio show. A post-Brexit border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would in no way be worse than the border between the London boroughs of Islington and Camden, he said. The presenter was struck dumb. And like the congestion charge for cars that was electronically taken from each driver's bank account, the same could certainly be done in Ireland. It's easy!
Off to a he went for a run through London's winter wonderland and then left for a trip to Hungary. Boris must have had the most pressing engagement with the Foreign Minister in Budapest. Civil servants in the Foreign Office are rumored to constantly send their minister abroad in order to keep him out of trouble. But he manages to stir things up even in his short periods at home.
Michel Barnier has promised fishermen plenty of work post-BrexitImage: Getty Images/AFP/H. Bagger
Let's talk about fish
Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator for Brexit, is the very image of the unflappable diplomat. Always polite, well turned out, pointedly patient and only rarely showing his exasperation with Britain's David Davis, Barnier seems perfectly at home in his role. A man who thrives in the meeting rooms of Brussels and who will never get his hands dirty.
Last weekend however he left his suits and ties behind and took a trip on a Danish fish cutter. It was for him an expedition into real life. The fishermen wanted reassurance that they would still have jobs after Brexit. The EU has of course not even begun talking about quotas and national exclusion zones. This will happen much later when the real horse trading begins and all cards and buckets of fish are on the table. And it is known that fishery is a very touchy subject for the British. Yes, there will be fish after Brexit, somewhere out there in the northern seas. But nothing more can be said.
Britain's Fishing Industry and Brexit
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Cheers for the return of the pint-sized Champagne
Winston Churchill is said to have loved them: Pint-sized bottles of Champagne. Their return is now praised as one of the great positives of Brexit. In 1993 the infamous faceless Brussels bureaucrats had introduced decimal measures and forced out the pint, the gallon, the ounce and a lot of other old Britishness.
Apparently the "British Bulldog" loved his bubblyImage: picture-alliance/akg-images
"Cheers for Brexit" ran the headline for the champagne story last week in the forever enthusiastic Telegraph. And the re-introduction of the pint-sized Champagne bottle will certainly get the British masses fired up for Brexit. If you cannot afford a whole 700-ml bottle of Champagne, there might just be enough money to buy a British pint of fizz.
Britain's best-loved hero Winston Churchill is said to have strengthened his resolve against Hitler by downing a few glasses of Champagne between breakfast and lunch. And he preferred the smaller bottles, because it would make his wife Clementine unhappy if he drank a large bottle, the prime minister supposedly explained. And it would make him unhappy if he only drank a little half-size one. That sounds reasonable.
The excitement about the return of pint-sized Champagne or of the old blue British passports shows how much Brexit is driven by nostalgia. But the cheerleaders for the good old times and yesteryear cannot turn back the clock. The British Empire is still gone and Churchill is still resting in his grave.
Image: Bilderbox
All this for a bag of crisps
Finally another comment from the culinary side of things: A former top civil servant last week likened Brexit to exchanging a three-course meal with a bag of crisps. Martin Donnelly used to work for DexEU, the department for exiting the European Union, and what he witnessed there must have been rather unconvincing. In the end the UK will be left with nothing but a measly bag of potato chips, is his conclusion. But they may, of course, continue to call them crisps. By all means.