After decades of strife and violence, the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, part of the UK, was finally nixed in 1998. The process of Brexit may put that in jeopardy.
Speaking to UK Sunday newspaper TheObserver, Irish EU Commissioner Phil Hogan warned that Ireland would "continue to play tough to the end" over the border, and advised British Prime Minister Theresa May to try to remain in the European single market and customs union rather than seek a separate free trade agreement (FTA).
"I continue to be amazed at the blind faith that some in London place in theoretical future fair trade agreements," Hogan said, accusing May's government of not considering the cost of cross-border business to both Ireland and the UK.
"The best possible FTA with the EU will fall far short of the benefits of being in a single market," he added.
British minister demands trade talks first
Responding to comments coming from Dublin and Brussels, Britain's International Trade Minister Liam Fox said the UK would not resolve the Irish border issue until it has agreed on a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU.
"We don't want there to be a hard border but the United Kingdom is going to be leaving the customs union and the single market," he said. "We can't get a final answer to the Irish question until we get an idea of the end state, and until we get into discussions with the European Union on the end state that will be very difficult."
EU ministers are set discuss whether to open up Brexit negotiations to trade talks when they meet at their next summit on December 14 and 15.
Road to Brexit: Northern Ireland border area
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'An accident waiting to happen'
Dublin has demanded promises from London that there will be no hard border with the North, and they firmly believe that remaining in the single market is the only way to guarantee that.
The Observer reported that, at the same time, the UK's former ambassador to the EU had called May's Brexit strategy "an accident waiting to happen," as there is not much time to renegotiate the 59 trade deals Britain has through the EU.
"When it comes to trying to negotiate new FTAs with the rest of the world, Britain will be pushed around the way the EU – with currently more than eight times the UK population – will never be," said Ivan Rogers.
The political situation in Ireland is already tenuous ahead of an important December EU summit on Britain's exit from the bloc. A recent vote of no confidence in Deputy Prime Minister Frances Fitzgerald means that the republic could be heading for fresh elections in the coming weeks as the country's minority government crumbles.
Fresh elections would leave Prime Minister Leo Varadkar in an extremely weak position during the summit, increasing the threat of a hard border with Northern Ireland.
Deal or no deal? Brexit options boiled down
There's a spectrum of options on Britain's future relationship with the EU, each with a distinct set of advantages and disadvantages. While euroskeptic purists favor a clean "hard Brexit," others favor a softer landing.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/R.Vieira/W.Rothermel
Hard or soft options
It's essentially a choice of a harder or softer Brexit. Harder prioritizes border control over trade. UK firms would pay tariffs to do business in the EU, and vice versa. The softest Brexit would see access to the single market, or at least a customs union, maintained. That would require concessions — including the payment of a hefty "divorce bill" — to which the UK has provisionally agreed.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/R.Vieira/W.Rothermel
A leap into the unknown
Businesses have expressed concern about a "cliff edge" scenario, where Britain leaves the EU with no deal. Even if an agreement is reached at the EU bloc level, the worry is that it could be rejected at the last minute. Each of the 27 remaining countries must ratify the arrangements, and any might reject them. That could mean chaos for businesses and individuals.
If there is no agreement at all, a fully sovereign UK would be free to strike new trade deals and need not make concessions on the rights of EU citizens living in the UK or pay the financial settlement of outstanding liabilities. However, trade would be crippled. UK citizens in other parts of the EU would be at the mercy of host governments. There would also be a hard EU-UK border in Ireland.
Image: Imago
Divorce-only deal
The EU and the UK could reach a deal on Britain's exiting the bloc without an agreement on future relations. This scenario would still be a very hard Brexit, but would at least demonstrate a degree of mutual understanding. Trade agreements would be conducted, on an interim basis, on World Trade Organization rules.
Image: Fotolia/Jens Klingebiel
Limited arrangement, like with Canada
Most trade tariffs on exported goods are lifted, except for "sensitive" food items like eggs and poultry. However, exporters would have to show their products are genuinely "made in Britain" so the UK does not become a "back door" for global goods to enter the EU. Services could be hit more. The City of London would lose access to the passporting system its lucrative financial business relies on.
Under the Swiss model, the UK would have single market access for goods and services while retaining most aspects of national sovereignty. Switzerland, unlike other members of the European Free Trade Area (EFTA), did not join the European Economic Area (EEA) and was not automatically obliged to adopt freedom of movement. Under a bilateral deal, it agreed to do so but is still dragging its feet.
Image: picture-alliance/Anka Agency International
The Norway way
As part of the European Economic Area, Norway has accepted freedom of movement – something that no Brexit-supporting UK government would be likely to do. Norway still has to obey many EU rules and is obliged to make a financial contribution to the bloc while having no voting rights. Some see this as the worst of both worlds.
Image: dapd
A Turkey-style customs union
Turkey is the only major country to have a customs union with the EU, as part of a bilateral agreement. Under such an arrangement, the UK would not be allowed to negotiate trade deals outside the EU, instead having the bloc negotiate on its behalf. Many Brexiteers would be unwilling to accept this. It would, however, help minimize disruption at ports and, crucially, at the Irish border.
