Many British lawmakers appear ready to ask the EU for an extension to the Brexit process instead of exiting without a deal on March 29. But would the EU agree to delay the divorce?
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If British lawmakers vote on Thursday to request an extension of the Article 50 procedure, the official name of the process the UK follows to leave the European Union, they may face a skeptical response from the bloc.
Largely fed up with the lack of a common opinion coming from London, politicians in the EU have by no means guaranteed they will agree to prolong Brexit discussions.
Here are the issues EU leaders will have to consider:
Justify the request, with some strings attached
Leaders of the EU and its member states have mostly said they are open to the idea of an extension, but only if Britain can justify its request to postpone the Brexit date, barely two weeks away. An extension requires unanimous approval from the 27 remaining EU members.
European Council President Donald Tusk said Britain would have to provide a "credible justification" for any request for a delay.
This line of "credible justification" has been repeated almost verbatim by several European leaders.
German MEP David McAllister told DW the UK would need be "credible" and "convincing." While Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte wrote on Twitter: "Should the UK hand in a reasoned request for an extension, I expect a credible and convincing justification."
The EU has not yet fully outlined what this would entail, but they would likely be looking for a clear road map of how the UK wants to proceed with extra time. Ideally, it would be a technical extension to implement the deal following a third vote.
Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, said Brussels would need to hear a clear line of reasoning to consider postponement.
"Why would we prolong the negotiation? To do what? Because the Article 50 negotiation is finished, we have a treaty, it's there," he said, referring to the deal that took the EU and UK more than two years to negotiate, and was twice rejected by British lawmakers.
Brexit timeline: Charting Britain's turbulent exodus from Europe
Britain shocked the world when it voted to leave the European Union on June 24, 2016. DW traces the major events that have defined Brexit so far.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/Y. Mok
June 2016: 'The will of the British people'
After a shrill referendum campaign, nearly 52% of British voters opted to leave the EU on June 23. Polls had shown a close race before the vote with a slight lead for those favoring remaining in the EU. Conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron, who had campaigned for Britain to stay, acknowledged the "will of the British people" and resigned the following morning.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Rain
July 2016: 'Brexit means Brexit'
Former Home Secretary Theresa May replaced David Cameron as prime minister on July 11 and promised the country that "Brexit means Brexit." May had quietly supported the Remain campaign before the referendum. She did not initially say when her government would trigger Article 50 of the EU treaty to start the two-year talks leading to Britain's formal exit.
Image: Reuters/D. Lipinski
March 2017: 'We already miss you'
May eventually signed a diplomatic letter over six months later on March 29, 2017 to trigger Article 50. Hours later, Britain's ambassador to the EU, Tim Barrow, handed the note to European Council President Donald Tusk. Britain's exit was officially set for March 29, 2019. Tusk ended his brief statement on the decision with: "We already miss you. Thank you and goodbye."
Image: picture alliance / Photoshot
June 2017: And they're off!
British Brexit Secretary David Davis and the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, kicked off talks in Brussels on June 19. The first round ended with Britain reluctantly agreeing to follow the EU's timeline for the rest of the negotiations. The timeline split talks into two phases. The first would settle the terms of Britain's exit, and the second the terms of the EU-UK relationship post-Brexit.
Image: picture alliance/ZUMAPRESS.com/W. Daboski
July-October 2017: Money, rights and Ireland
The second round of talks in mid-July began with an unflattering photo of a seemingly unprepared British team. It and subsequent rounds ended with little progress on three phase one issues: How much Britain still needed to pay into the EU budget after it leaves, the post-Brexit rights of EU and British citizens and whether Britain could keep an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Image: Getty Images/T.Charlier
December 2017: Go-ahead for phase 2
Leaders of the remaining 27 EU members formally agreed that "sufficient progress" had been made to move on to phase two issues: the post-Brexit transition period and the future UK-EU trading relationship. While Prime Minister Theresa May expressed her delight at the decision, European Council President Tusk ominously warned that the second stage of talks would be "dramatically difficult."
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/dpa/O. Matthys
July 2018: Johnson, Davis resign
British ministers appeared to back a Brexit plan at May's Chequers residence on July 6. The proposal would have kept Britain in a "combined customs territory" with the EU and signed up to a "common rulebook" on all goods. That went too far for British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis, who resigned a few days later. May replaced them with Jeremy Hunt and Dominic Raab.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/G. Fuller
September 2018: No cherries for Britain
May's Chequers proposal did not go down well with EU leaders, who told her at a summit in Salzburg in late September that it was unacceptable. EU Council President Tusk trolled May on Instagram, captioning a picture of himself and May looking at cakes with the line: "A piece of cake perhaps? Sorry, no cherries." The gag echoed previous EU accusations of British cherry-picking.
Image: Reuters/P. Nicholls
November 2018: Breakthrough in Brussels
EU leaders endorsed a 585-page draft divorce deal and political declaration on post-Brexit ties in late November. The draft had been widely condemned by pro- and anti-Brexit lawmakers in the British Parliament only weeks earlier. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned along with several other ministers, and dozens of Conservative Party members tried to trigger a no-confidence vote in May.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Dunand
December 2018: May survives rebellion
In the face of unrelenting opposition, May postponed a parliamentary vote on the deal on December 10. The next day, she met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to seek reassurances that would, she hoped, be enough to convince skeptical lawmakers to back the deal. But while she was away, hard-line Conservative lawmakers triggered a no-confidence vote. May won the vote a day later.
Image: Getty Images/S. Gallup
January 2019: Agreement voted down
The UK Parliament voted 432 to 202 against May's Brexit deal on January 16. In response to the result, European Council President Donald Tusk suggested the only solution was for the UK to stay in the EU. Meanwhile, Britain's Labour Party called for a no-confidence vote in the prime minister, her second leadership challenge in as many months.
Image: Reuters
March 2019: Second defeat for May's deal
May tried to get legal changes to the deal's so-called Irish backstop in the weeks that followed. She eventually got assurances that the UK could suspend the backstop under certain circumstances. But on March 12, Parliament voted against the revised Brexit deal by 391 to 242. EU leaders warned the vote increased the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. Two days later, MPs voted to delay Brexit.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/T. Ireland
March 2019: Extension after second defeat
Following the second defeat of May's divorce deal, the European Council met in Brussels on March 21 to decide what to do next. EU leaders gave May two options: delay Brexit until May 22 if MPs vote for the withdrawal deal or delay it until April 12 if they vote against the deal. If the deal were to fail again in Parliament, May could ask for a long extension.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein
March 2019: Brexit deal rejected a third time
On March 29, the day that the UK was supposed to leave the EU, British lawmakers voted for a third time against May's deal — rejecting it this time with a vote of 344 to 286. Following the latest defeat, May approached the main opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in an attempt to find a compromise, angering hardline Brexiteers in her own Conservative party.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/House of Commons/M. Duffy
April 2019: Brexit delayed until Halloween
With the April 12 deadline looming after the third defeat of May's deal, EU leaders met again in Brussels to discuss a second delay. The only question was how long should it be? In the end, the UK and EU agreed to a "flexible" extension until October 31 — which can end sooner if the Brexit deal is approved. The UK had to take part in EU elections in May because their exit wasn't secured in time.
Image: Reuters/E. Plevier
May 2019: Prime Minister Theresa May resigns
Weeks of talks between Prime Minister Theresa May and the Labour party to reach a deal proved unsuccessful and further eroded her political capital. She triggered an angry backlash from her party after she tried to put the option of a second referendum on the table. The series of failures led May to announce her resignation, effective June 7, in an emotional address.
Image: Reuters/H. McKay
June 2019: Search for a new prime minister
After Theresa May announced on June 7 that she would leave office, other members of her Conservative party began clamoring for the top job. Within a month, the leadership battle came down to Jeremy Hunt (left), an EU proponent who fears a no-deal scenario, and Boris Johnson (right), one of the main proponents of Brexit.
July 2019: Prime Minister Boris Johnson
At the end of July 2019, Johnson was officially named Theresa May's successor as British prime minister. "We are going to energize the country, we are going to get Brexit done by October 31," he said after he was elected leader of the Conservative Party.
Image: Imago Images/Zuma/G. C. Wright
September 2019: Johnson's election threat
Conservative rebels and opposition MPs backed efforts to delay an October 31 Brexit deadline in fear of a no-deal departure. In response, Johnson called for a general election, saying his government cannot rule without a mandate after he stripped 21 rebel MPs of their Conservative status. The Labour Party said it would not back elections until legislation to block a no-deal Brexit was in place.
In late September, Britain's highest court ruled that Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament ahead of the UK's planned exit was unlawful. "This was not a normal prorogation in the run-up to a Queen's Speech," said the Supreme Court. Political rivals immediately called on Johnson to leave his post. Johnson said he would abide by the court ruling, though said he "strongly" disagreed.
Image: Reuters/H. Nicholls
October 2019: A new deal
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to secure a deal with European negotiators that would allow the UK to leave the EU in an orderly manner. The deal received unanimous backing from the leaders of 27 other member states. But an attempt to get the UK Parliament to sign off on the deal failed. Instead, Parliament pushed for the Brexit deadline to be extended until the end of January 2020.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein
December 2019: Lawmakers vote for Johnson's Withdrawal Bill
On December 22, UK lawmakers vote for Prime Minister Johnson's European Union withdrawal bill, which will see a leave date of January 31 2020 enshrined in law. Getting a majority to vote to pass the bill in the lower house has proven a major sticking point for the PM, but following a general election Johnson's Conservative party won control of the house and the bill passed with a 124 majority.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/House of Commons
December 2020: EU, UK 'finally' reach trade deal
After months of disagreements over fishing rights and future business rules, the EU and UK clinched a post-Brexit trade deal on Christmas Eve. Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed the deal, saying the UK has "taken back control of our laws and our destiny." The deal will allow the UK and the EU to trade without tariffs, but also impose limitations on free movement and financial services.
Image: Pippa Fowles/Xinhua/imago images
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How long can they extend?
If the EU member states are convinced by a request to postpone the Brexit process, the question of how long this would be remains.
The proposal on Thursday's vote is to extend until June 30.
For most of the bloc, elections for the European Parliament represent the last possible exit point for Britain. The elections take place between May 23 and May 26 and some of the UK's 73 seats are set to be redistributed.
However, Michael Roth, Germany's deputy minister for Europe, proposed the date of July 1 as the absolute limit for Britain leaving the EU without participating in the elections, as those elected in May would take their posts on July 2.
Roth's colleague, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, was presenting a much more tolerant view of an extension, saying he did not think there should be "artificial limits" to the extension.
Candidates for European Commission president
Germany's Manfred Weber, the conservative candidate, is considered the front-runner in the race to lead the European Commission. DW takes a closer look at him, and his main rivals.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/F. Seco
Manfred Weber (EPP)
The center-right European People's Party (EPP) — the largest faction in the European Parliament — has picked Manfred Weber, its German parliamentary party leader. He has the backing of Chancellor Angela Merkel. Though considered the front-runner, Weber is little known on the international stage, and his language skills are considered poor.
Image: Reuters/V. Kessler
Frans Timmermans (S&D)
Frans Timmermans, the European Commission's first vice president, will lead the campaign for the Progressive Alliance of Socialists & Democrats (S&D). Weber's main rival promises to bring the bloc closer to ordinary voters at a time when Britain's looming exit is one factor behind the nationalist movements across the EU.
Image: Reuters/F.Lenoir
Margrethe Vestager (ALDE)
Margrethe Vestager, 51, is one of seven lead candidates for the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats. As the current EU commissioner for competition, the Danish MEP has taken on corporations like Apple, Amazon and Google parent Alphabet. It's also been said that she served as the inspiration for the main character in <i>Borgen</i>, a Danish series where a woman becomes Denmark's first female leader.
Image: Reuters/Y. Herman
Jan Zahradil (ECR)
The third-largest group in the EU Parliament, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), has just one candidate: Jan Zahradil, chairman of the Czech ECR delegation. Zahradil, 65, is affectionately known as "Forrest Gump" for cycling from Prague to Strasbourg for a session of the European Parliament and for once running 1,300 kilometers (about 800 miles) across the Czech Republic for charity.
Image: imago/Belga
Ska Keller (Greens/EFA)
The Greens/EFA is the seventh largest group in European Parliament, so the German is a long shot to become European Commission president. The Greens have proposed a job share, with two candidates serving for two-and-a-half years each. The most favorite to join Keller is Dutch lawmaker Bas Eickhout.
Image: European Green Party
Violeta Tomic and Nico Cue (GUE/NGL)
The EU's left-wing groups will be headed by Spanish trade unionist Nico Cue and Violeta Tomic (at left). Tomic is a deputy in Slovenia's National Assembly, best known as a TV presenter and actress. She entered into politics in 2014 and has been an advocate for LGBT rights and stronger citizens' rights in Europe. Cue grew up in Belgium after his family was forced to flee Franco's Soain.
Image: picture-alliance/ANP/M. van Hoom
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Why are the elections the hard limit for some?
If Britain remains in the EU after the election date, or at latest July 1 as Roth proposes, they would legally have to take part in the elections. Member states cannot excuse themselves from the election process.
But member states chafe at the idea of allowing Britain a final chance to influence the institution it said it wants to leave.
Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament's chief Brexit official, said if Britain participates in the elections, they "will be hijacked by the Brexiteers and the whole Brexit issue."
"The only thing we will do is give a new mandate to Mr. (Nigel) Farage," Verhofstadt said.
For his part, the most famous Brexiteer insists he will be glad to see the back of the EU and his generous parliamentary benefits. The founder of the far-right, anti-EU UKIP party has been an MEP since 1999.
"What I have to guarantee is that the tragedy and chaotic situation in London does not infect the European decision-making process. Europeans have to vote by May 26 for the future of this continent and we have to do this of our own will," Weber told DW.
Long delay
Many European and British lawmakers are now talking about a one-year extension if a deal is again rejected, but it is unclear how this would affect the elections.
Even Tusk was advocating on Thursday for a long delay, if the British see fit. The European Council president said he will appeal to EU capitals to consider a long delay.
"During my consultations ahead of the EU summit, I will appeal to the EU27 to be open to a long extension if the UK finds it necessary to rethink its Brexit strategy and build consensus around it," Tusk tweeted.
Tusk's comments came shortly after a prominent member of Germany's opposition FDP, Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, told the daily Die Welt that a second referendum would be the only valid reason for a longer extension. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney promoted the idea of a 21-month extension that could lead to a fundamental rethink of the idea of Brexit by the British.
MEP McAllister told DW: "If a longer extension is asked for, then we need a fundamentally different political attitude in London. Then we will really have to sit down and see how we can explain ... why the UK should remain a part of the EU much longer than the European elections." He also raised the prospect of the UK revoking the Article 50 procedure in such a scenario.
Some observers say the idea of a long delay could be a tactic by the EU and Remainers to push Brexiteers, afraid of being trapped in the EU, into accepting the current deal. However, at least one euroskeptic lawmaker has said he is willing to take the risk of a long delay rather than adopt Theresa May's "rancid" deal.
If the EU says no to Britain
If the EU refuses an Article 50 extension, then the UK will likely crash out of the bloc on March 29 with no agreement, likely causing considerable economic damage to both Britain and European Union members. This is unless the UK can agree on the twice-rejected deal in time for the EU to accept it.
Weber told DW that a hard Brexit scenario is entirely plausible.
"If the political class fails so totally in Great Britain, then we as Europeans cannot solve the British domestic internal problems; that's the situation," he said. "We are ready."
Up until now, the EU has presented a unified front in Brexit negotiations. But if just one member state rejects the idea of an extension, the opportunity is over and the extension will be refused.
While this does appear to be the least-likely option, countries such as France are taking a notably strong stance on the issue. The French president's office has said it is still working towards March 29 as the likely exit date, unless the UK can provide a credible strategy.