A government report says Britain risks severely damaging its economy if lawmakers fail to approve a proposed Brexit deal. Staying in the European Union would be a far better option, the UK's treasury chief argued.
The report found that the economy would only be around 2 percent smaller in 15 years time if it exited the bloc under terms similar to the British-EU draft deal agreed to last week. In a no-deal Brexit, the economy would be nearly 8 percent smaller and could shrink by up to 9.3 percent in the event of significant trade barriers.
"If the only consideration, the only consideration, was the economy, then the analysis shows clearly remaining in the European Union would be a better outcome for the economy, but not by much," British Treasury chief Philip Hammond told BBC earlier on Wednesday.
Bank of England warns of massive unemployment spike
A separate report by the Bank of England that was released later on Wednesday found that unemployment could nearly double and the British economy could shrink by as much as 8 percent within a matter of months in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The Bank of England also warned that the pound could crash by 25 percent if no deal is reached.
The central bank's report, which considered several worst-case scenarios, says that a smoother Brexit could help soften the economic impact on the UK.
"Our job is not to hope for the best but to prepare for the worst," Bank of England governor Mark Carney said at a press conference, adding that businesses needed to do more to prepare for the fallout.
"The proportion of businesses who have activated contingency plans remains a fraction of businesses as a whole," he said.
Brexit timeline: Charting Britain's turbulent exodus from Europe
Britain shocked the world when it voted to leave the European Union on June 24, 2016. DW traces the major events that have defined Brexit so far.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/Y. Mok
June 2016: 'The will of the British people'
After a shrill referendum campaign, nearly 52% of British voters opted to leave the EU on June 23. Polls had shown a close race before the vote with a slight lead for those favoring remaining in the EU. Conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron, who had campaigned for Britain to stay, acknowledged the "will of the British people" and resigned the following morning.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Rain
July 2016: 'Brexit means Brexit'
Former Home Secretary Theresa May replaced David Cameron as prime minister on July 11 and promised the country that "Brexit means Brexit." May had quietly supported the Remain campaign before the referendum. She did not initially say when her government would trigger Article 50 of the EU treaty to start the two-year talks leading to Britain's formal exit.
Image: Reuters/D. Lipinski
March 2017: 'We already miss you'
May eventually signed a diplomatic letter over six months later on March 29, 2017 to trigger Article 50. Hours later, Britain's ambassador to the EU, Tim Barrow, handed the note to European Council President Donald Tusk. Britain's exit was officially set for March 29, 2019. Tusk ended his brief statement on the decision with: "We already miss you. Thank you and goodbye."
Image: picture alliance / Photoshot
June 2017: And they're off!
British Brexit Secretary David Davis and the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, kicked off talks in Brussels on June 19. The first round ended with Britain reluctantly agreeing to follow the EU's timeline for the rest of the negotiations. The timeline split talks into two phases. The first would settle the terms of Britain's exit, and the second the terms of the EU-UK relationship post-Brexit.
Image: picture alliance/ZUMAPRESS.com/W. Daboski
July-October 2017: Money, rights and Ireland
The second round of talks in mid-July began with an unflattering photo of a seemingly unprepared British team. It and subsequent rounds ended with little progress on three phase one issues: How much Britain still needed to pay into the EU budget after it leaves, the post-Brexit rights of EU and British citizens and whether Britain could keep an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Image: Getty Images/T.Charlier
December 2017: Go-ahead for phase 2
Leaders of the remaining 27 EU members formally agreed that "sufficient progress" had been made to move on to phase two issues: the post-Brexit transition period and the future UK-EU trading relationship. While Prime Minister Theresa May expressed her delight at the decision, European Council President Tusk ominously warned that the second stage of talks would be "dramatically difficult."
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/dpa/O. Matthys
July 2018: Johnson, Davis resign
British ministers appeared to back a Brexit plan at May's Chequers residence on July 6. The proposal would have kept Britain in a "combined customs territory" with the EU and signed up to a "common rulebook" on all goods. That went too far for British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis, who resigned a few days later. May replaced them with Jeremy Hunt and Dominic Raab.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/G. Fuller
September 2018: No cherries for Britain
May's Chequers proposal did not go down well with EU leaders, who told her at a summit in Salzburg in late September that it was unacceptable. EU Council President Tusk trolled May on Instagram, captioning a picture of himself and May looking at cakes with the line: "A piece of cake perhaps? Sorry, no cherries." The gag echoed previous EU accusations of British cherry-picking.
Image: Reuters/P. Nicholls
November 2018: Breakthrough in Brussels
EU leaders endorsed a 585-page draft divorce deal and political declaration on post-Brexit ties in late November. The draft had been widely condemned by pro- and anti-Brexit lawmakers in the British Parliament only weeks earlier. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned along with several other ministers, and dozens of Conservative Party members tried to trigger a no-confidence vote in May.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Dunand
December 2018: May survives rebellion
In the face of unrelenting opposition, May postponed a parliamentary vote on the deal on December 10. The next day, she met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to seek reassurances that would, she hoped, be enough to convince skeptical lawmakers to back the deal. But while she was away, hard-line Conservative lawmakers triggered a no-confidence vote. May won the vote a day later.
Image: Getty Images/S. Gallup
January 2019: Agreement voted down
The UK Parliament voted 432 to 202 against May's Brexit deal on January 16. In response to the result, European Council President Donald Tusk suggested the only solution was for the UK to stay in the EU. Meanwhile, Britain's Labour Party called for a no-confidence vote in the prime minister, her second leadership challenge in as many months.
Image: Reuters
March 2019: Second defeat for May's deal
May tried to get legal changes to the deal's so-called Irish backstop in the weeks that followed. She eventually got assurances that the UK could suspend the backstop under certain circumstances. But on March 12, Parliament voted against the revised Brexit deal by 391 to 242. EU leaders warned the vote increased the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. Two days later, MPs voted to delay Brexit.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/T. Ireland
March 2019: Extension after second defeat
Following the second defeat of May's divorce deal, the European Council met in Brussels on March 21 to decide what to do next. EU leaders gave May two options: delay Brexit until May 22 if MPs vote for the withdrawal deal or delay it until April 12 if they vote against the deal. If the deal were to fail again in Parliament, May could ask for a long extension.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein
March 2019: Brexit deal rejected a third time
On March 29, the day that the UK was supposed to leave the EU, British lawmakers voted for a third time against May's deal — rejecting it this time with a vote of 344 to 286. Following the latest defeat, May approached the main opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in an attempt to find a compromise, angering hardline Brexiteers in her own Conservative party.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/House of Commons/M. Duffy
April 2019: Brexit delayed until Halloween
With the April 12 deadline looming after the third defeat of May's deal, EU leaders met again in Brussels to discuss a second delay. The only question was how long should it be? In the end, the UK and EU agreed to a "flexible" extension until October 31 — which can end sooner if the Brexit deal is approved. The UK had to take part in EU elections in May because their exit wasn't secured in time.
Image: Reuters/E. Plevier
May 2019: Prime Minister Theresa May resigns
Weeks of talks between Prime Minister Theresa May and the Labour party to reach a deal proved unsuccessful and further eroded her political capital. She triggered an angry backlash from her party after she tried to put the option of a second referendum on the table. The series of failures led May to announce her resignation, effective June 7, in an emotional address.
Image: Reuters/H. McKay
June 2019: Search for a new prime minister
After Theresa May announced on June 7 that she would leave office, other members of her Conservative party began clamoring for the top job. Within a month, the leadership battle came down to Jeremy Hunt (left), an EU proponent who fears a no-deal scenario, and Boris Johnson (right), one of the main proponents of Brexit.
July 2019: Prime Minister Boris Johnson
At the end of July 2019, Johnson was officially named Theresa May's successor as British prime minister. "We are going to energize the country, we are going to get Brexit done by October 31," he said after he was elected leader of the Conservative Party.
Image: Imago Images/Zuma/G. C. Wright
September 2019: Johnson's election threat
Conservative rebels and opposition MPs backed efforts to delay an October 31 Brexit deadline in fear of a no-deal departure. In response, Johnson called for a general election, saying his government cannot rule without a mandate after he stripped 21 rebel MPs of their Conservative status. The Labour Party said it would not back elections until legislation to block a no-deal Brexit was in place.
In late September, Britain's highest court ruled that Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament ahead of the UK's planned exit was unlawful. "This was not a normal prorogation in the run-up to a Queen's Speech," said the Supreme Court. Political rivals immediately called on Johnson to leave his post. Johnson said he would abide by the court ruling, though said he "strongly" disagreed.
Image: Reuters/H. Nicholls
October 2019: A new deal
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to secure a deal with European negotiators that would allow the UK to leave the EU in an orderly manner. The deal received unanimous backing from the leaders of 27 other member states. But an attempt to get the UK Parliament to sign off on the deal failed. Instead, Parliament pushed for the Brexit deadline to be extended until the end of January 2020.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein
December 2019: Lawmakers vote for Johnson's Withdrawal Bill
On December 22, UK lawmakers vote for Prime Minister Johnson's European Union withdrawal bill, which will see a leave date of January 31 2020 enshrined in law. Getting a majority to vote to pass the bill in the lower house has proven a major sticking point for the PM, but following a general election Johnson's Conservative party won control of the house and the bill passed with a 124 majority.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/House of Commons
December 2020: EU, UK 'finally' reach trade deal
After months of disagreements over fishing rights and future business rules, the EU and UK clinched a post-Brexit trade deal on Christmas Eve. Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed the deal, saying the UK has "taken back control of our laws and our destiny." The deal will allow the UK and the EU to trade without tariffs, but also impose limitations on free movement and financial services.
Former British Foreign Secretary and "hard Brexit" advocate Boris Johnson appeared to reject both the government and Bank of England's reports, labeling the financial experts as part of "the British economic establishment."
"They can't forecast six months out — why should we believe them over 15 years?" he wrote on Twitter.
Greater economic impact
The British government's report is seen as an optimistic assessment by other analysts.
A study published on Monday by the independent National Institute of Economic and Social Research showed May's deal having a stronger negative impact on the economy, citing costlier trade with the EU.
"GDP in the longer term will be around 4 percent lower than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU," the research institute said in its report. That difference translates to around 1,000 British pounds (€1,130, $1,270) per person annually, according to the report.
Britain is leaving the European Union, but who exactly is directing the drama? DW takes a look at the people involved in the messy divorce.
Image: picture-alliance
Britain's embattled skipper: Theresa May
May became prime minister after David Cameron resigned from the post in the wake of the Brexit referendum vote in June 2016. Despite her position, she has struggled to define what kind of Brexit her government wants. Hardliners within her Conservative party want her to push for a clean break. Others want Britain to stay close to the bloc. The EU itself has rejected many of May's Brexit demands.
The leader of the British Labour Party has no formal role in the Brexit talks, but he is influential as the head of the main opposition party. Labour has tried to pressure the Conservative government, which has a thin majority in Parliament, to seek a "softer" Brexit. But Corbyn's own advocacy has been lukewarm. The long-time leftist voted for the UK to leave the European Community (EC) in 1975.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/A. Chown
Britain's boisterous Brexiteer: Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson's turbulent two years as UK foreign secretary came to an abrupt end with his resignation on July 9. The conservative had been a key face for the Leave campaign during the 2016 referendum campaign. Johnson disapproves of the "soft Brexit" sought by PM May, arguing that a complete break from the EU might be preferable. He became the second Cabinet member within 24 hours to quit...
Image: picture alliance/AP Images/M. Turner
Britain's cheery ex-delegate: David Davis
David Davis headed Britain's Department for Exiting the EU and was the country's chief negotiator in the talks before he quit on July 8, less than 24 hours before Downing Street announced Boris Johnson's departure. Davis had long opposed Britain's EU membership and was picked for the role for this reason. Davis was involved in several negotiating rounds with his EU counterpart, Michel Barnier.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/V: Mayo
Britain's former Brexit secretary: Dominic Raab
Raab replaced Davis in early July 2018. But he only lasted four months, resigning a day after Theresa May presented a draft withdrawal plan to her cabinet. Raab previously worked for a Palestinian negotiator in the Oslo peace process and as an international lawyer in Brussels advising on European Union and World Trade Organization law.
Jeremy Hunt was Britain's Health Secretary until he replaced Boris Johnson as foreign secretary in early July 2018. The 51-year-old supported Britain remaining in the European Union during the 2016 referendum, but said in late 2017 that he had changed his mind in response to the "the arrogance of the EU Commission" during Brexit talks. He has vowed to help get Britain a "great Brexit deal."
Image: picture-alliance/Photoshot
Britain's firebrand: Nigel Farage
Nigel Farage was the leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) until July 2016. Under his stewardship, the party helped pressure former Prime Minister David Cameron into calling the EU referendum. He was also a prominent activist in the Leave campaign in the lead-up to the vote. Farage still has some influence over Brexit talks due to his popularity with pro-Leave voters.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/F. Florin
Brexit's banker: Arron Banks
Businessman Arron Banks is a friend of Nigel Farage, and donated a significant sum to the former UKIP leader's Leave.EU campaign – making him the group's biggest financial backer. He had several meetings with Russian officials ahead of the referendum, but has denied allegations of collusion with Moscow in the Brexit vote, branding the claims a "political witch hunt."
Image: Getty Images/J. Taylor
Europe's honchos: Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk
EU Commission President Juncker (left) and EU Council President Tusk (right) share two of the bloc's highest posts. Juncker heads the EU's executive. Tusk represents the governments of the 27 EU countries — the "EU 27." Both help formulate the EU's position in Brexit negotiations. What Tusk says is particularly noteworthy: His EU 27 masters — not the EU commission — must agree to any Brexit deal.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/G. Vanden
Europe's steely diplomat: Michel Barnier
The former French foreign minister and European commissioner has become a household name across the EU since his appointment as the bloc's chief Brexit negotiator in October 2016. Despite his prominence, Barnier has limited room to maneuver. He is tasked with following the EU 27's strict guidelines and must regularly report back to them during the negotiations.
Image: Reuters/Y. Herman
Ireland's uneasy watchman: Leo Varadkar
The Irish PM has been one of the most important EU 27 leaders in Brexit talks. Britain has said it will leave the EU's customs union and single market. That could force the Republic of Ireland, an EU member, to put up customs checks along the border with Northern Ireland, a British province. But Varadkar's government has repeatedly said the return of a "hard" border is unacceptable.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/B. Lawless/PA Wire
Europe's power-brokers: the EU 27
The leaders of the EU 27 governments have primarily set the EU's negotiating position. They have agreed to the negotiating guidelines for chief negotiator Barnier and have helped craft the common EU position for Tusk and Juncker to stick to. The individual EU 27 governments can also influence the shape of any Brexit outcome because they must unanimously agree to a final deal.