Three-quarters of a year after the elections, Burundi seems to have achieved a certain level of calm. Yet under the surface tension is still boiling. During a panel discussion in Berlin experts voiced their concerns.
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To the outside observer the mood in Burundi seems peaceful, but underneath the surface the violence continues, said Kassimi Bamba, the African Union special envoy to Burundi. "People are still being killed, but this occurs away from the public eye," explained Bamba during a panel discussion organized by the Heinrich Böll Foundation, the Ecumenical Network Central Africa and Deutsche Welle in Berlin.
Burundi's political crisis erupted in April 2015, when President Pierre Nkurunziza announced that he wanted to run for a third term in office. His critics called his bid to run again unconstitutional and the demonstrations against Nkurunziza's move escalated into violent encounters between security forces and the opposition. According to the UN, at least 400 people have been killed and over 250,000 fled into exile since then. In July 2015, Nkurunziza was re-elected, even though international observers said the polls were unfair.
Current dialogue leading nowhere
The chances of achieving peace seem unlikely any time soon. Burundi's government has set up a commission charged with conducting peace talks, yet critics have voiced their doubts over its effectiveness. "Who will take part in the dialogue if most of the opposition is in exile?" Bob Rugurika, the former director of the independent Burundian broadcaster Radio Publique Africain (RPA), asked. Rugurika himself was forced to flee the country last year.
AU diplomat Bamba agreed: "An inclusive dialogue must take place outside Burundi." Burundi's government has however refused such an option.
No second genocide
The deployment of an international police force to Burundi will change very little, Rugurika said. The UN Security Council approved the mission last Friday (02.04.2016), but the specifics are still unclear. According to Burundi's ambassador to the UN, between 20 to 30 police officers will be stationed in the country. "Many Burundians had hoped for peace-keeping troops," explained Rugurika. He doesn't believe that such a small police unit can gain a grip of the situation. The UN, he said, should urgently re-evaluate the resolution.
Despite the ongoing violence and repression, the experts don't see a danger of Burundi slipping into another genocide. "Most Burundians won't allow themselves to be mobilized on ethnic lines," said Claudia Simons from the Middle East and Africa research division of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Ethnicity, she said, is only one of many factors contributing to the crisis. "We often forget that political and economic participation only takes place amongst a small elite."
No alternative to the dialogue
There is no alternative to the dialogue, as far as Kordula Schulz-Asche is concerned. The Greens politician visited Burundi in 2015 as part of a delegation of German parliamentarians. "All of the Burundian lawmakers emphasized that there is no ethnic dimension to the problem," said Schulz-Asche.
According to Schulz-Asche, if Burundi wants to solve its problems, European Union members should increase its pressure on the Burundian government.
What all the experts agreed on is that without a successful peace process, the country could experience another wave of violence. "If there is no political solution, Burundi will probably not remain peaceful. The situation could become extremely volatile," Simons warned.
Refugees: A new existence in Uganda
Anyone who flees to Uganda from one of the neighboring countries can build a house there, get a job and even own a piece of land – a result of economic and political considerations by the Ugandan authorities.
Image: DW/S. Schlindwein
Liberal refugee policy
Uganda has one of the world's most liberal refugee policies. About half a million people from war-torn countries within the region are looking for shelter here. They come from eastern Congo, South Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea and Burundi. Up to 100 people arrive at the huge refugee camps in southwest Uganda every day.
Image: DW/S. Schlindwein
From Burundi via Rwanda to Uganda
Currently, refugees mostly from Burundi are urgently looking for shelter in Uganda. In July 2015, Burundian Pierre Karimumujango fled to Rwanda with his wife and three children. "We lived in congested camps. It is hard to settle down there," he says. It is from there that they continued their journey to Uganda by bus.
Image: DW/S. Schlindwein
Owning their own piece of land
"We had nothing when we arrived - apart from the clothes we were wearing," Karimumujango said. He was given kitchen utensils, water canisters, tents and groceries by the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR). The Ugandan government allocated a piece of land to each family on which they could build a house and cultivate foodstuffs. The Burundian farmer planted cassava.
Image: DW/S. Schlindwein
Help from the outside
The newcomers are given second-hand clothing, often donations from Europe. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees and several international non-governmental organizations help in providing for the refugees. Uganda is a poor country itself. Without support it would be utterly swamped by the asylum surge.
Image: DW/S. Schlindwein
A city just for refugees
The Nakivale camp in the southwest of Uganda is the biggest in the country. More than 100,000 refugees live in an area of 180 square kilometres (69 square miles) - Nakivale is like a city. The land in the dry, almost uninhabited savanna belongs to the government which distributes it to the refugees. They burn clay to make bricks to build their own houses.
Image: DW/S. Schlindwein
A new life among compatriots
In Nakivale the refugees live in "districts," according to their country of origin. Since the outbreak of the Burundian crisis in the past year, 22,000 Burundians fled to Uganda. In Nakivale they established "Little Bujumbura," named after the capital of their country. A lot of them come with all their belongings and savings in order to start a new life.
Image: DW/S. Schlindwein
A new employment market is created
The center of Nakivale is like a small town: Here you find carpenters, workshops, tailors, hairdressers, shops and pharmacies. A lot of refugees try to pick up and carry on with the professions they formerly had in their home countries. Some of them bring goods and tools with them and create new jobs.
Image: DW/S. Schlindwein
Refugees as an economic factor
A Burundian miller brought his flour mill to Uganda. 16-year old Michel Tweramehezu from Burundi is happy to have found a job in the camp. "There is not much to do here," he says. The Ugandan government sees the refugees as an economic asset, a work permit is not required. All they need to do is take part in economic activity.
Image: DW/S. Schlindwein
East African superpower politics
Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni likes to present himself as the grandfather of the region and pursues a brand of superpower politics in which refugees play a major role. Opposition activists and rebels from neighboring countries are among those fleeing to Uganda which is well aware of the political dimensions attached to its refugee policy.
Image: DW/S. Schlindwein
Sports against hatred
Within the camps, the regional conflicts continue: Rwandan Hutus and Tutsis in Nakivale still live in different districts. Frictions often occur, that´s when the camp police have to intervene and mediate. Sport is a good way to reconcile the parties. Breakdance competitions, a youth center and a radio station can help reduce the potential for violence.
Image: DW/S. Schlindwein
Shortage of nearly everything
Olive Nyirandambyza fled from her village in eastern Congo in 2007. Five of the 38-year-old's seven children were born in Nakivale. She receives 50 kilograms (110 lbs) of corn monthly from the United Nations World Food Programme. "It´s often not enough, so my husband has to go to the city to work for the Ugandans," she says. She lacks soap, sanitary products and medicine.
Image: DW/S. Schlindwein
Only basic schooling in the camps
The majority of the inhabitants of Nakivale are children of school age. There are six state-run elementary schools in the camp which are free of charge. There are no more advanced schools, secondary students have to walk long distances to the next village. The school there is a private one and most of the refugee families cannot afford the fees.
Image: DW/S. Schlindwein
Cattle as source of capital
Some refugees - for example Banyamulenge from eastern Congo or Tutsi from Rwanda or Burundi - bring their cattle herds with them to the camp. In Uganda´s fertile grassland around Nakivale they find enough to eat. For many families the cattle herds act as living bank accounts. To pay school fees, cows are sold at the cattle market in Nakivale.
Image: DW/S. Schlindwein
Home is gone for ever
Ndahayo Ruwogwa believes that he will die in Uganda. The 69- year-old lost his right arm during the war in his home country of eastern Congo. He has been living in Nakivale for the last 13 years with his family of 13. "At least it's peaceful here in Uganda. We got a chance for a new life," he says. "My home country is still at war. We will probably never be able to go back there."