On Sunday, September 21, peace marches are planned for Moscow and other major Russian cities. It has been announced that an estimated 50,000 people are expected to participate in the Russian capital alone, although it is unclear how many will actually turn up. It will be the first mass action by representatives of the opposition and civil groups against the interference of their country in Ukraine for half a year. In March 2014, reacting to the so-called "referendum" in Crimea on making the peninsula part of Russia, tens of thousands across the country took to the streets under the slogan "Hands off Ukraine."

Current surveys show, however, that a large majority of Russians still support the policy of the Kremlin towards Kyiv. Voices that question whether Moscow's actions are harmful not only for Ukraine but also for Russia are almost never heard publicly.

Passivity and Propaganda

According to the independent Russian pollster Levada Center, more than 80 percent of Russians would absolutely not participate in mass protests, even if they were taking place in their regions. Human rights activists and opposition members say this is the result of a successful fight on the part of the state against any kind of protest movement. Aggressive propaganda from the Kremlin has ensured this "success".

"The people are fooled by means of agitation and propaganda. A militaristic hysteria of the Ukraine conflict is being imposed in the country ", Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov said in an interview with Deutsche Welle.

Public opinion is being manipulated and is becoming more fascist, he noted. "Disgusting methods of persecution and insidious propaganda are used against political activists and dissidents. They are made responsible for all mortal sins and declared traitors," Nemtsov said.

Weakness of civil society

Sergei Smirnov, editor of the website "Human rights in Russia", says that civil society in Russia is weak and underdeveloped. That is the main reason why there are almost no protests in tje country. "In the 21st century, we are still deprived of effective ways to influence the decisions upon which not only our personal destinies but also that of our society and our country depend," he told DW. "Where are our civil institutions which sound the alarm when a threat to human rights even suggests itself, let alone if when it has already led to the deaths of people?"

According to Smirnov, for months non-governmental organizations have been under increasing pressure from authorities. "They try to represent these organizations as a 'fifth column' and 'foreign agents'. Even the organization of Soldiers' Mothers has been branded in this way" Smirnov said angrily.

Comparison with Afghanistan

Opposition politician Vladimir Ryzhkov believes the protest movement in Russia is weak because most people see no need to look for objective information. "For a year Russians have been subjected to a massive propaganda campaign provided by the mass medium of television, and they tend to follow it," said Ryzhkov to DW.

As to the question of what must be done to ensure the change of Russian public opinion with regards to military participation in the Ukrainian conflict, Ryzhkov draws a historical comparison: "I can still remember the war in Afghanistan, which lasted ten years. Initially, it caused no unrest among the citizens of the Soviet Union. A loss of confidence in the Soviet leadership first came when Soviet Union soldiers did not return alive and thousands of Soviet families were affected."

Economic consequences

One possible factor that could lead to reduced support for the Kremlin's Ukraine policy is the economy, says Ryzhkov. "The price Russia will pay for its anti-Ukrainian politics will be understood gradually as one sees economic difficulties increase, such as the decay of the ruble, unemployment, price hikes and food shortages," said the politician.

The like-minded Boris Nemtsov believes that the situation will only change when people in Russia get true information. "In Eastern Ukraine there is no civil war, yet Russia is fighting there against Ukrainians. One has to show Russian citizens the abundant evidence that Russian soldiers are fighting in Eastern Ukraine. If the public gets objective information about the war, the anti-war movement will increase its momentum, "said Nemtsov, convinced.