Cambodians head to the polls on Sunday to elect tens of thousands of commune chiefs and councilors and the election results may bring a surprise, as a new opposition party appears to be surging in popularity.

The ruling Cambodian People's Party, or CPP, in power since 1979, has tightened its stranglehold on politics since 2017, when it forcibly banned its only real opponent. The European Union partially removed Cambodia's trade privileges as a result. Relations with the United States have soured and are at an almost historic low.

Human rights groups warn that Sunday's election could be fraught with irregularities. "We are disturbed by the pattern of threats, intimidation and obstruction targeting opposition candidates," UN Human Rights Office spokesperson Liz Throssell said in a statement.

But the ruling party will be tested by the Candlelight Party, which traces its lineage back to 1995 and resumed activities last October.

It was previously known as the Sam Rainsy Party, named after the country's main opposition leader since the early 1990s, and it is now believed to be winning the hearts and minds of Cambodia's youthful population, who are eager for change.

A tense political climate

The Candlelight Party will field candidates in 1,632 of the country's 1,652 communes in Sunday's election, making it the second-largest party. More than 1,600 commune chiefs and 11,500 councillors will be elected on Sunday. 

"There is still the characteristic mix of hope and defiance among the people and the opposition. However, especially compared to the last two election cycles, expectations are muted," said Katrin Travouillon, a researcher at the Australian National University.

"The CPP is certainly more confident this year, but intimidation and harassment of opposition members remain key elements of the party's electoral strategy," Travouillon said.

In a show of strength, the CPP held a motorcycle parade of an estimated 50,000 supporters through the streets of the capital, Phnom Penh, on Friday.

At the last commune election in June 2017, the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party, or CNRP, won 43% of the popular vote, taking 489 of the 1,646 commune chief posts up for grabs. This was the first time since local elections began in 2002 that any party had dented the ruling CPP's near-monopoly on commune posts.

Five months later, the CNRP was forcibly dissolved by the Supreme Court, accused without evidence of plotting a US-backed coup. The party's elected officials were stripped of their posts. Most fled the country.

Kem Sokha, the party's president, was arrested on treason charges. His trial has been constantly delayed. Sam Rainsy, its other leader, went into exile in late 2015 and has been banned from returning to the country.

A disruption to the ruling party's reign?

The authorities have also stepped up their harassment of activists, tightened their control of the media and cracked down on civil society groups.

Without its main opponent on the ticket, the ruling party won all 125 seats in the country's parliament, the National Assembly, at the 2018 general election, effectively turning Cambodia into a one-party state.

According to Sophal Ear, an associate professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University, intimidation against the Candlelight Party is actually a sign that it is doing well.

"Cambodia follows Stalin's dictum. Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything," Ear added.

The National Election Committee, which is dominated by CPP members, has prevented nearly 150 Candlelight Party candidates from competing for various reasons.

Sam Seun, an analyst at the Royal Academy of Cambodia, reckons the opposition party could win around a quarter of the commune seats up for grabs. "Many former CNRP supporters will vote for the Candlelight Party," Seun said. 

But the Candlelight Party has also been controversial. Sokha and his faction accuse Rainsy of going behind their backs to restart the party, claiming this destroyed the CNRP unity.

The Sam Rainsy Party, as the Candlelight Party was formerly named, was supposed to have merged with Sokha's Human Rights Party in 2012 to form the CNRP. But neither of those two parties ever dissolved themselves.

Rainsy has stressed that he has nothing to do with the Candlelight Party. He has numerous criminal convictions to his name, cahrges that are thought to have been politically motivated. In Cambodia, any political party can be automatically dissolved if it has formal links to convicted criminals.

Given this animosity between opposition activists, the big question is whether Sokha's supporters will vote for the Candlelight Party.

Another 15 parties will also compete in the election. The once-dominant royalist Funcinpec party and its breakaway party, the Khmer National United Party, are expected to field candidates in around two-fifths of communes.

Analysts told DW that if the Candlelight Party does too well at Sunday's election, it could be dissolved by the CPP-dominated institutions afterwards.

A less than spectacular result, however, would likely see it given a reprieve. The division it has caused amongst the opposition movement also suits the ruling party, said Ou Virak, president of the Phnom Penh-based Future Forum think-tank.

"It would be just a matter of time before Kem Sokha will be throwing his support behind either a revived Human Rights Party or a new party," he added.

Local polls as bellwethers for general elections

In Cambodia, these local elections tend to be a bellwether for the country's general elections, which usually take place 13 months afterwards. A resounding victory for the CPP on Sunday, setting up an easy general election next year, would likely convince Prime Minister Hun Sen to speed up his dynastic succession plans.

"Everyone is waiting for the results of the commune election before proceeding with the new plan," said the analyst Seun.

Hun Sen, one of the world's longest-serving heads of government, is pushing through with his plans to name his eldest son as his successor. Hun Manet, 44, is currently second-in-charge of the country's military and runs several key CPP bodies, including its youth wing. 

Manet was voted as the party's next prime ministerial candidate at a special meeting of the CPP's Central Committee last December.

Analysts expect Manet will run for political office at next year's general election and then be made a cabinet minister. After that, he will gradually assume most of his father's political powers. 

A resounding victory for the CPP on Sunday could quicken the timescale of the succession plans. IN that case, there are soem fears that Manet could even be named the CPP's prime ministerial candidate at next year's general election.

Edited by: Leah Carter