We are on the brink of Brexit finally happening — meaning more EU-UK negotiations are around the corner. For the first time in years, Britain is clear about what it wants from the EU. But what is that and can it be done?
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What Britain wants. It sounds like a bad romantic comedy and in some ways, maybe that's what this whole Brexit business is. During the torturous days of Theresa May's premiership (and the early days of Boris Johnson's), it was next to impossible to say with any certainty what exactly Britain wanted with regards to Brexit, the EU and everything in between.
Practically nothing could get through the House of Commons. Everything ranging from the softest of Brexits to the hardest was apparently unpalatable to a majority. "Britain must tell us what it wants!" was a pleading refrain of eurocrats this time last year.
Over the next eight weeks, the EU will get its negotiating ducks in a row and from March, negotiations on the future UK-EU relationship will begin, with the primary focus being on trade and how UK-EU commerce will look in the future.
For the first time since the entire Brexit process began, there is a degree of consensus on the British side as to what it wants. So what exactly is that and is it achievable?
I'll tell you what I want, what I really, really want
Following the meeting with von der Leyen, Johnson's Downing Street office released a statement. It said the prime minister had "reiterated that we wanted a broad free trade agreement covering goods and services".
It said Johnson had emphasized that any future relationship could not involve any kind of regulatory alignment or European Court of Justice jurisdiction.
The key line came at the very end. "The PM said the UK was ready to start negotiations on the future partnership and Canada-style FTA as soon as possible after January 31."
Ardent Brexiteers have spoken often of the "sunlit uplands" that await a post-EU Britain, garlanded in trade deals. CETA (Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement), the official name of the EU-Canada trade deal, is where the sun shines brightest in Johnson's world.
That's the trade relationship he has most consistently spoken of, in colorful terms. "Super Canada-plus" is the dramatic name he tends to give it.
But significant trade barriers still exist in the EU-Canada relationship. It is not a customs union or single market, meaning it does not remove border controls. There are also signficant restrictions on financial services — a key plank of the British economy.
Tariffs and quotas also apply across the agricultural sector. And any agricultural products coming from Canada into the EU must comply with the EU's standards.
It's important to note that modelling a future EU-UK deal along the lines of CETA comes with a major caveat, namely the massive difference in the volume of trade between the jurisdictions. Only about 10% of Canadian trade is with the EU compared to around 45% of UK trade.
It's not just the volume of trade that is different. The nature of trade is vastly different too. Canadian-EU trade falls along quite specific lines, whereas UK-EU trade is extremely wide-ranging, encompassing a far wider variety of business and commerce.
As a result, a CETA-style EU-UK deal would require agreements on many areas not even broached in the Canada deal.
Critics of those advocating a Canada-style deal say such a negotiation would essentially involve an unprecedented erection of trade barriers, considering the fact that for the last 47 years, the EU and UK have been, in trade terms, one and the same.
"In the words of one well-placed trade analyst," wrote former UK Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg in 2017, "this would be "the largest programme of re-regulation and re-protection" of trade since the disastrous introduction of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs in 1930. Far from being a free-trade agreement, it would be a trade restriction agreement — an act of protectionism by the UK."
11 months? Try nine
The Downing Street statement's ruling out of "any kind of alignment" with EU regulations was a nod towards Johnson's long-stated intention for the post-EU UK to establish itself as a low-regulation competitor to the EU.
"Without a level playing field on environment, labor, taxation and state aid, you cannot have the highest quality access to the world's largest single market," she said. "With every choice comes a consequence. With every decision comes a trade-off."
Contrasting von der Leyen's warning with Johnson's vow not to allow talks go beyond December 31, 2020 and the fact of how long it took the Canada deal to be done means there is only one logical conclusion as to where things will stand next Christmas: no deal will be done, and the UK will leave on the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement alone.
Such a conclusion assumes the politicians will do what they say. A foolish position to take perhaps, given some of the characters involved. But if Britain truly wants what it says — one of the most complex trade agreements of all time done in the space of nine months — then that's the only sensible conclusion to make.
Brexit timeline: Charting Britain's turbulent exodus from Europe
Britain shocked the world when it voted to leave the European Union on June 24, 2016. DW traces the major events that have defined Brexit so far.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/Y. Mok
June 2016: 'The will of the British people'
After a shrill referendum campaign, nearly 52% of British voters opted to leave the EU on June 23. Polls had shown a close race before the vote with a slight lead for those favoring remaining in the EU. Conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron, who had campaigned for Britain to stay, acknowledged the "will of the British people" and resigned the following morning.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Rain
July 2016: 'Brexit means Brexit'
Former Home Secretary Theresa May replaced David Cameron as prime minister on July 11 and promised the country that "Brexit means Brexit." May had quietly supported the Remain campaign before the referendum. She did not initially say when her government would trigger Article 50 of the EU treaty to start the two-year talks leading to Britain's formal exit.
Image: Reuters/D. Lipinski
March 2017: 'We already miss you'
May eventually signed a diplomatic letter over six months later on March 29, 2017 to trigger Article 50. Hours later, Britain's ambassador to the EU, Tim Barrow, handed the note to European Council President Donald Tusk. Britain's exit was officially set for March 29, 2019. Tusk ended his brief statement on the decision with: "We already miss you. Thank you and goodbye."
Image: picture alliance / Photoshot
June 2017: And they're off!
British Brexit Secretary David Davis and the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, kicked off talks in Brussels on June 19. The first round ended with Britain reluctantly agreeing to follow the EU's timeline for the rest of the negotiations. The timeline split talks into two phases. The first would settle the terms of Britain's exit, and the second the terms of the EU-UK relationship post-Brexit.
Image: picture alliance/ZUMAPRESS.com/W. Daboski
July-October 2017: Money, rights and Ireland
The second round of talks in mid-July began with an unflattering photo of a seemingly unprepared British team. It and subsequent rounds ended with little progress on three phase one issues: How much Britain still needed to pay into the EU budget after it leaves, the post-Brexit rights of EU and British citizens and whether Britain could keep an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Image: Getty Images/T.Charlier
December 2017: Go-ahead for phase 2
Leaders of the remaining 27 EU members formally agreed that "sufficient progress" had been made to move on to phase two issues: the post-Brexit transition period and the future UK-EU trading relationship. While Prime Minister Theresa May expressed her delight at the decision, European Council President Tusk ominously warned that the second stage of talks would be "dramatically difficult."
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/dpa/O. Matthys
July 2018: Johnson, Davis resign
British ministers appeared to back a Brexit plan at May's Chequers residence on July 6. The proposal would have kept Britain in a "combined customs territory" with the EU and signed up to a "common rulebook" on all goods. That went too far for British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis, who resigned a few days later. May replaced them with Jeremy Hunt and Dominic Raab.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/G. Fuller
September 2018: No cherries for Britain
May's Chequers proposal did not go down well with EU leaders, who told her at a summit in Salzburg in late September that it was unacceptable. EU Council President Tusk trolled May on Instagram, captioning a picture of himself and May looking at cakes with the line: "A piece of cake perhaps? Sorry, no cherries." The gag echoed previous EU accusations of British cherry-picking.
Image: Reuters/P. Nicholls
November 2018: Breakthrough in Brussels
EU leaders endorsed a 585-page draft divorce deal and political declaration on post-Brexit ties in late November. The draft had been widely condemned by pro- and anti-Brexit lawmakers in the British Parliament only weeks earlier. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned along with several other ministers, and dozens of Conservative Party members tried to trigger a no-confidence vote in May.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Dunand
December 2018: May survives rebellion
In the face of unrelenting opposition, May postponed a parliamentary vote on the deal on December 10. The next day, she met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to seek reassurances that would, she hoped, be enough to convince skeptical lawmakers to back the deal. But while she was away, hard-line Conservative lawmakers triggered a no-confidence vote. May won the vote a day later.
Image: Getty Images/S. Gallup
January 2019: Agreement voted down
The UK Parliament voted 432 to 202 against May's Brexit deal on January 16. In response to the result, European Council President Donald Tusk suggested the only solution was for the UK to stay in the EU. Meanwhile, Britain's Labour Party called for a no-confidence vote in the prime minister, her second leadership challenge in as many months.
Image: Reuters
March 2019: Second defeat for May's deal
May tried to get legal changes to the deal's so-called Irish backstop in the weeks that followed. She eventually got assurances that the UK could suspend the backstop under certain circumstances. But on March 12, Parliament voted against the revised Brexit deal by 391 to 242. EU leaders warned the vote increased the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. Two days later, MPs voted to delay Brexit.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/T. Ireland
March 2019: Extension after second defeat
Following the second defeat of May's divorce deal, the European Council met in Brussels on March 21 to decide what to do next. EU leaders gave May two options: delay Brexit until May 22 if MPs vote for the withdrawal deal or delay it until April 12 if they vote against the deal. If the deal were to fail again in Parliament, May could ask for a long extension.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein
March 2019: Brexit deal rejected a third time
On March 29, the day that the UK was supposed to leave the EU, British lawmakers voted for a third time against May's deal — rejecting it this time with a vote of 344 to 286. Following the latest defeat, May approached the main opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in an attempt to find a compromise, angering hardline Brexiteers in her own Conservative party.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/House of Commons/M. Duffy
April 2019: Brexit delayed until Halloween
With the April 12 deadline looming after the third defeat of May's deal, EU leaders met again in Brussels to discuss a second delay. The only question was how long should it be? In the end, the UK and EU agreed to a "flexible" extension until October 31 — which can end sooner if the Brexit deal is approved. The UK had to take part in EU elections in May because their exit wasn't secured in time.
Image: Reuters/E. Plevier
May 2019: Prime Minister Theresa May resigns
Weeks of talks between Prime Minister Theresa May and the Labour party to reach a deal proved unsuccessful and further eroded her political capital. She triggered an angry backlash from her party after she tried to put the option of a second referendum on the table. The series of failures led May to announce her resignation, effective June 7, in an emotional address.
Image: Reuters/H. McKay
June 2019: Search for a new prime minister
After Theresa May announced on June 7 that she would leave office, other members of her Conservative party began clamoring for the top job. Within a month, the leadership battle came down to Jeremy Hunt (left), an EU proponent who fears a no-deal scenario, and Boris Johnson (right), one of the main proponents of Brexit.
July 2019: Prime Minister Boris Johnson
At the end of July 2019, Johnson was officially named Theresa May's successor as British prime minister. "We are going to energize the country, we are going to get Brexit done by October 31," he said after he was elected leader of the Conservative Party.
Image: Imago Images/Zuma/G. C. Wright
September 2019: Johnson's election threat
Conservative rebels and opposition MPs backed efforts to delay an October 31 Brexit deadline in fear of a no-deal departure. In response, Johnson called for a general election, saying his government cannot rule without a mandate after he stripped 21 rebel MPs of their Conservative status. The Labour Party said it would not back elections until legislation to block a no-deal Brexit was in place.
In late September, Britain's highest court ruled that Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament ahead of the UK's planned exit was unlawful. "This was not a normal prorogation in the run-up to a Queen's Speech," said the Supreme Court. Political rivals immediately called on Johnson to leave his post. Johnson said he would abide by the court ruling, though said he "strongly" disagreed.
Image: Reuters/H. Nicholls
October 2019: A new deal
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to secure a deal with European negotiators that would allow the UK to leave the EU in an orderly manner. The deal received unanimous backing from the leaders of 27 other member states. But an attempt to get the UK Parliament to sign off on the deal failed. Instead, Parliament pushed for the Brexit deadline to be extended until the end of January 2020.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein
December 2019: Lawmakers vote for Johnson's Withdrawal Bill
On December 22, UK lawmakers vote for Prime Minister Johnson's European Union withdrawal bill, which will see a leave date of January 31 2020 enshrined in law. Getting a majority to vote to pass the bill in the lower house has proven a major sticking point for the PM, but following a general election Johnson's Conservative party won control of the house and the bill passed with a 124 majority.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/House of Commons
December 2020: EU, UK 'finally' reach trade deal
After months of disagreements over fishing rights and future business rules, the EU and UK clinched a post-Brexit trade deal on Christmas Eve. Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed the deal, saying the UK has "taken back control of our laws and our destiny." The deal will allow the UK and the EU to trade without tariffs, but also impose limitations on free movement and financial services.