Dozens of checkpoints manned by heavily armed Afghan security forces brandishing new weapons line the streets of Kabul. The M16 assault rifles have been given to them by the Americans, so they can provide security in the Afghan Capital in the run-up to the elections.

At every roundabout soldiers in new uniforms stand beside armoured Humvees from the US, which have replaced the rusting sand coloured ford pick-up trucks common to the Afghan army. For everybody driving through these checkpoints is an exercise in patience, a journey that used to take 10 minutes now takes half an hour.

"Security in Kabul has reached unprecedented levels and for the moment it is stable. There are more than 14,000 police officers deployed in Kabul alone," Rafiq Shirdel, the Director of the Afghan Network in Hamburg told Deutsche Welle.

Despite this show of force, the suicide bomb attacks continued in the run-up to the election. "A bomb went off outside the ISAF headquarters, just an hour ago... I heard the explosion. I think 70 people were injured and some people were killed. How can we have elections when they cannot even secure the capital?" Fahim, a 21 year old taxi driver says.

The casualties of this suicide car bomb attack finally amount to 8 dead and over 90 wounded. A Taliban spokesman claims responsibility for the attack saying the 4x4, laden with 500 kg of explosive, was aimed at the US Embassy and NATO headquarters. It is the first major attack in Kabul since a car bomb went off outside the German Embassy in January.

Violence and intimidation

The idea that anti-government elements could pull off a strike of these proportions at these levels of security is a sobering thought. Despite checkpoint after checkpoint, the suicide bomber managed to detonate both himself and his car laden with half a ton of explosives in the heart of the Afghan capital's most heavily guarded district.

The Taliban, who have promised to disrupt the elections with a campaign of terror, have shown they can strike wherever they want. The security belt President Hamid Karzai promised would stretch into the provinces has been torn wide open at its strongest link.

The events in Kabul have exposed the government. This attack is a reminder that since the US-led invasion in 2001 and the toppling of the Taliban regime, the insurgents are again on the rise and have a presence in 70 percent of the country according to the International Council on Security and Development, an international think tank.

"Security is the first concern of the government. The people will not take the risk to vote. If they cannot build a belt to secure the government, how can they build a belt to secure the provinces," says Dr Wadir Safi, a Professor at Kabul University.

Fears of further attacks mean that many of the 7,000 polling stations throughout the country will remain closed, despite an approximate force of 300,000 Afghan and foreign security forces.

Containment rather than victory

In July both the United States and Britain launched large-scale offensives in the Pashtun-dominated Helmand River valley, aimed both at stemming the Taliban's growing influence and at bringing security to villages and remote districts ahead of the elections.

These measures have had limited success and July saw record numbers of casualties, despite US President Barack Obama's deployment of thousands more troops with the intention of curbing the Taliban's increasing attacks. Nevertheless, in recent months insurgents have increased their presence in the north of the country, where the Bundeswehr heads the NATO-ISAF operation.

In response, German forces near Kunduz embarked on the largest German military offensive since World War II in July to clear the province so that polling could take place on August 20th. Prior to this, German soldiers had been limited in their activities by caveats and had therefore been focused solely on reconstruction initiatives.

Fraud and corruption

Another problem Afghanistan is facing is the possibility of fraud. Fear of attacks and Taliban recriminations, the ICOS warns, could cause widespread "stuffing" of ballot boxes, as people fail to show for voting.
Dr Sima Samar, chairwoman of the Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission, addressed the issue of fraud at a press conference in Kabul last week. "Some of the districts that are not totally under the control of the Government and remain inaccessible for some candidates and the civic education staff cannot go out of the centre of the district to the remote villages to do their public outreach, which is a problem," she said.

Even without these problems holding elections in a poor, backward country such as Afghanistan is a tall challenge. How do you vote in a country five times the size of Germany, large swathes of which are so underdeveloped that villages are accessible only on foot or by donkey. Getting ballot boxes to these regions in the face of all of this will be a challenge by itself.

Dr Samar also alluded to the alleged electoral misconduct of President Karzai, saying he had abused his position in order to bolster his campaign. "The other violation we witnessed during the reporting period was the misuse of state resources by one special candidate. It is claimed that they were in support of President Karzai. They have also been used by a governor candidate," she said.

Karzai's dubious tactics

From flying to campaign rallies in government helicopters to brokering power deals with warlords, and pardoning drug traffickers, Karzai is pulling out all the stops to secure his re-election.

An ethnic Pashtun, Karzai will depend heavily on the vote in the insecure south of the country. Of all people he has appointed his hugely controversial half-brother Ahmed Wali Karzai as his campaign manager. Wali Karzai is the chief of the provincial council in Kandahar and has been suspected for years of being heavily involved in the drug trade.

Ahmed Wali Karzai has also been in talks with the Taliban to broker an election truce. Security in the south will help Karzai secure the Pashtun vote he so desperately relies on.

Karzai is the favorite to win and has bolstered that position by shaping alliances with warlords to secure a part of the Tajik and Uzbek vote. Karzai has struck deals with Mohammed Fahim, a Tajik, and General Rashid Dostum, an Uzbek, two of Afghanistan's most notorious warlords. General Dostum is currently being investigated for the mass murder of hundreds of Taliban fighters back in 2001.

In the past few days Karzai has also passed a law which is effectively selling out women's rights in the hope of winning the conservative vote. "President Karzai is making a mockery of the Afghan people. When the people voted for Karzai, they trusted him. They never thought he would be shaking hands with local warlords, war criminals and drug lords," says Dr. Safi.

Post-election concerns

One of Karzai's main opponents is openly accusing the Afghan president, of mismanagement, corruption, fraud and his exotic way of arranging things. Ashraf Gahni, an American-educated, former World Banker is a staunch technocrat who many believe is the only candidate with real policies that could turn around the situation in Afghanistan.

"He (Ghani) has the solution for this country. He is the most educated, the most clean, he was not involved in any civil war. And more important than anything, he has a clear strategy for this country which is doable in practice," Dr. Farouq Samim, a freelance reporter based in Kabul says.

Karzai's real rival is Abdullah Abdullah, a Tajik and close confidant of the notorious Mujahedeen commander Achmed Shah Massoud, who was assassinated by two al Qaeda suicide bombers disguised as a television crew just days before the Sept. 11 attacks on the twin towers. His ties to Massoud could buy him a large part of the Tajik vote but it may also be his undoing. Many find it questionable whether he will ever be able to step out of the shadow of the Lion of Panjshir, as Massoud was known.

Apart from the frontrunners there are over 30 other candidates in the presidential race, including two women, with little chances of being elected. The fact that women are allowed to run for president at all, is a sign of progress and hope in a country where women have had near to no rights.

A recent opinion poll conducted by a Washington-based think tank gave Karzai a considerable lead over his main rivals, but he may not garner the 50 percent necessary to avoid a run-off election. That could turn out to be a blessing or a curse and observers generally feel that this is a poll that may bring more problems than solutions. The international community is taking this scenario very seriously. The ghost of an ungovernable Afghanistan is NATO's worst nightmare.

Author: Dan Morgan
Editor: Rob Mudge