Former US President Jimmy Carter has intervened successfully in North Korea in the past and could prove acceptable to the isolated nation’s dictator Kim Jong Un as a peace negotiator. Julian Ryall reports.
Carter's plan was revealed by Park Han-shik, a Korean professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia. Park met Carter at the former president's home in Plains, Georgia, on September 28, he told South Korea's JoongAng Daily newspaper, with Carter saying he "wants to play a constructive role for peace on the Korean Peninsula, as he did in 1994."
Park added that Carter wants to meet Kim Jong Un in person "to discuss a peace treaty between the United States and the North and the complete denuclearization of North Korea."
'Permanent peace'
The ultimate aim, he said, would be "establishing a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula."
Analysts believe that North Korea would welcome the possibility of talks as it would be both a propaganda coup and serve to legitimize the regime. China and Russia would also be supportive as both governments have been calling for meaningful talks to put an end to the worsening exchanges of rhetoric and threats.
And while there are many in Washington who are willing to explore the possibility of talks, it is less clear whether President Donald Trump will personally be in favor of a former US leader taking the spotlight.
In September, an official of the US State Department reportedly visited Carter at his home to pass on a message from Trump that he refrain from speaking publicly about the deepening crisis in Northeast Asia on the grounds that he was undermining the president.
Still, Carter wrote an opinion piece in the Washington Post last week about the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Noting that this is the "most serious existing threat to world peace," the former US leader said: "it is imperative that Pyongyang and Washington find some way to ease the escalating tension and reach a lasting, peaceful agreement."
But Trump's position on the North has been more confrontational. In his speech before the United Nations General Assembly in September, Trump said the US will "totally destroy" North Korea if it pushes ahead with its development of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
In a tweet on Saturday, the president stated, "Only one thing will work" and an aide told the media that Trump is telegraphing that "military options are on the table."
"North Korea wants this because their goal is to get the US to back down and if Washington has to move away from its stated position of a denuclearized North Korea, then they will see that as a victory," said James Brown, an associate professor of international relations at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.
ICBM threat and North Korea's overall military strength
For years, the international community downplayed the threat of North Korea's military power. With the test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, it is clear that Pyongyang's military capabilities are growing.
Image: Gettty Images/AFP/E. Jones
Major achievement
In early June 2017, North Korea test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time. Testing an ICBM marked a major military achievement for Pyongyang and a serious escalation of tensions with the United States and its allies in the region, particularly South Korea and Japan.
Image: Reuters/KCNA
Trouble with warheads
At the time, defense experts said the ICBM could reach as far as the US states of Alaska and Hawaii. However, it was unclear if North Korea can field an ICBM capable of carrying a nuclear warhead on its cone that could survive reentry into the Earth's atmosphere. North Korean state media claimed the ICBM was capable of carrying a "large, heavy nuclear warhead" to any part of the United States.
Image: Reuters/KCNA
Pyongyang's nuclear tests - six times and counting
The ICBM is believed to be a step forward in the North's nuclear program. Despite pressure from the international community, Pyongyang has made no secret of its nuclear ambitions. Alongside its ritual ballistic missile tests, North Korea has conducted nuclear tests on at least six occasions, including one in September 2017.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/KCNA
US running out of patience?
Responding to the first ICBM test with a show of force, the US and South Korean troops on conducted "deep strike" precision missile drills using Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and the Republic of Korea's Hyunmoo Missile II. In April, the US sent its Carl Vinson aircraft carrier towards the Korean Peninsula, saying it was taking prudent measures against the North.
Image: picture-alliance/Zumapress/M. Brown
Testing the boundaries
Ignoring international condemnation, Pyongyang test-launched another rocket on July 28, 2017, just weeks after its first ICBM test. In both of the tests, North Korea used Hwasong-14 missile, but the second one reached a higher altitude and traveled a larger distance than the first one, according to the state media.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/KCNA
Whole of US within range?
Pyongyang conducted its third test November 29, using a newly developed Hwasong-15 missile. US, Japanese and South Korean officials said it rose to about 4,500 km (2,800 miles) and flew 960 kilometers (600 miles) over about 50 minutes before landing in Japan's exclusive economic zone off the country's coast.
Image: picture-alliance/MAXPPP
One of the world's largest militaries
Apart from a developing missile and nuclear program, North Korea has a powerful army with 700,000 active troops and another 4.5 million in the reserves. It can call upon almost a quarter of its population to serve in the army at any given time. The North's bloated army is believed to outnumber its southern neighbor's by two-to-one.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Jones
Vast capabilities
According to the 2017 Global Firepower Index, the North has, as part of a far-reaching arsenal, 458 fighter aircraft, 5,025 combat tanks, 76 submarines, and 5,200,000 total military personnel. The picture above from 2013 shows leader Kim Jong Un ordering strategic rocket forces to be on standby to strike US and South Korean targets at any time.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Enemies all around
Alongside the United States, Pyongyang views its neighbors South Korea and Japan as its two other main enemies. North Korea has used US military exercises in the region as means of galvanizing its people, claiming that the exercises are dress rehearsals for an impending invasion.
Image: Reuters/K. Hong-Ji
Huge, colorful demonstrations of military might
Every year, hundreds of thousands of soldiers and citizens roll through the streets of the capital Pyongyang to take part in the North's military parades. Preparations for the rallies often begin months in advance, and the parades usually mark important anniversaries linked with the Communist Party or Kim Jong Un's family.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/KCNA
10 images1 | 10
Pyongyang legitimacy
"A meeting between Carter and Kim would not be the same as official government-to-government talks, but the North will not mind as it gives them more of the legitimacy that they want," Brown told DW.
Carter's track record will make him even more palatable to the North, as he stepped in previously, in 1994, when then-US President Bill Clinton was drawing up plans for an attack on North Korea's nuclear reactor at Yongbyon.
Carter travelled to Pyongyang in June of that year and reached an agreement with Kim Il Sung for the North to freeze its nuclear program. Four months later, the US and North Korea signed the Agreed Framework, under which the North would eventually dismantle its nuclear program.
In August 2010, he again intervened to help win the release of Aijalon Gomes, an American national who had been given an eight-year prison sentence for entering the North illegally.
"Carter going to Pyongyang has to be better than the current situation," said Brown. "The US says that these agreements were used in the past by the North to buy time to develop its missiles and that they need to take a harder line now. But that is not working as the North is just responding with new missile launches and nuclear tests.
"To my mind, neither option is very good, but dialogue has to be better than the alternative," he added.
Toshimitsu Shigemura, a professor at Tokyo's Waseda University and an authority on North Korea's ruling family, believes the likelihood of Carter actually going to Pyongyang is slim.
North Korea's history of taking US prisoners
The parents of US tourist Otto Warmbier, who died after being imprisoned in North Korea, say he was tortured. His case is an extreme example when compared to other US citizens who have been held captive by Pyongyang.
Image: picture-alliance/Photoshot
'Crimes against the state'
In 2016, US student Otto Warmbier was arrested for allegedly stealing a propaganda poster as a "trophy." He was sentenced to 15 years of hard labor for "crimes against the state." In June 2017, he was returned by North Korea to the US in a coma and died a week later. What happened to him in captivity is a mystery. His death prompted a ban on US citizens traveling to North Korea.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/MAXPPP
'Subversion and espionage'
Kim Dong Chul, a South Korea-born US citizen, was sentenced in 2015 to 10 years hard labor for "subversion and espionage" after North Korean officials said he received a USB stick containing nuclear-linked and military secrets from a South Korean source in North Korea. Chul was arrested while visiting the special economic zone of Rason. He remains imprisoned and his condition is unknown.
Image: Reuters/KCNA
'Trying to overthrow the regime'
In 2013, North Korea sentenced US citizen Kenneth Bae to 15 years hard labor for "crimes against the state." He was arrested while on a tour group in the port city of Rason. A North Korean court described Bae as a militant Christian evangelist. He was allowed to talk to the media once, and said he was forced to work eight hours a day and was in poor health. Bae was released in November 2014.
Image: Reuters/KCNA
'Rash behavior' and 'hostile acts'
In 2013, US citizen Matthew Miller was arrested when he arrived in Pyongyang and reportedly tore up his US passport, demanding asylum in North Korea. He was later sentenced to six years of hard labor on charges of espionage. The court said Miller had a "wild ambition" to experience prison life so that he could secretly investigate North Korea's human rights situation. He was released in 2014.
Image: Reuters/KCNA
'Criminal involved in killing civilians'
In 2013, Merrill Newman an 85-year-old Korean War US Army veteran, was detained for one month in North Korea. Arrested as he was departing, he was accused of "masterminding espionage and subversive activities." He was freed after he expressed "sincere repentance" and read a statement that said he was "guilty of a long list of indelible crimes against the DPRK government and Korean people."
Image: Reuters
Freed by a diplomatic gesture
US journalists Euna Lee and Laura Ling were captured in 2009 after briefly entering North Korea to report on refugees. After a month in confinement, they were sentenced to 12 years hard labor for "illegal entry and "hostile acts." Two months later, after former US President Bill Clinton met with former North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang, the two women were pardoned and freed.
Image: AP
6 images1 | 6
Trump dislikes Democrats
"Carter is a Democrat and Trump dislikes him nearly as much as he disliked Barack Obama," he said. "He will not allow Carter to go there to broker peace because it would be a serious personal embarrassment to him.
"His presidency would effectively have been undermined," Shigemura said, pointing out Trump's reaction when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggested that talks were possible with North Korea.
Professor Park, who first claimed that Carter is considering travelling to Pyongyang, has visited North Korea on at least 50 occasions and Shigemura suggested that the idea may have actually originated in Pyongyang.
If so, it might be an attempt to demean Trump at the same time as opening new lines of communication with a respected elder statesman. And if the North is genuinely willing to talk, that might signal that international sanctions are slowly beginning to impact the regime or that Kim realizes that, sooner or later, they will cripple his nation and potentially cause his citizens to question his leadership.
