The rivers of Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, which connect India and Pakistan, have for months been the focal point of a slow-moving but embittered dispute between the rival.

Following a deadly attack on tourists in India-administered Kashmir in April, India announced that a landmark water sharing agreement with Pakistan would "be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism."

New Delhi seemed to double down on this position even after the clashes with Pakistan ended in May. In a major speech earlier this month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that "blood and water will not flow together."

It is important to note, however, that India's suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) remains theoretical. All available reports indicate India took no concrete action to restrict the water flow into Pakistan, which would have major consequences for Pakistani farms and powerplants. Islamabad has also warned that such restrictions would be seen as "an act of war."

India questions court jurisdiction, legitimacy

The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) has recently ruled on how key parts of the IWT should be interpreted, generally directing India to "let flow" the rivers for Pakistan's unrestricted use, except under specifically defined circumstances.

But India dismissed the court's stance, issued in a "supplemental award," as irrelevant.

"India has never accepted the legality, legitimacy, or competence of the so-called Court of Arbitration. Its pronouncements are therefore without jurisdiction, devoid of legal standing, and have no bearing on India's rights of utilisation of waters," said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal.

"India also categorically rejects Pakistan's selective and misleading references" to the court's opinion, added Jaiswal.

Progress 'unlikely anytime soon'

Foreign policy experts and academics told DW that India and Pakistan appeared locked in a stalemate as their diplomatic channels are frozen.

Uttam Kumar Sinha, a senior fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies, said the dispute could escalate into a "broader Asian hydro-politics axis."

"Pakistan will internationalize the award, using it in forums from the UN to the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to highlight its water insecurity. India, meanwhile, will insist the award has no bearing on its sovereignty and will press ahead with its hydropower and irrigation infrastructure on the western rivers," Sinha said.

Sinha, who is also the author of Trial by Water, a book that examines the geopolitics of water sharing in the Indus Basin, pointed out that actual alliances over dams and grids may matter more than rulings in The Hague.

"With courts sidelined and the IWT in abeyance, technical fixes outside legal forums are the only fallback. Yet, without political normalization, progress remains unlikely anytime soon," he added.

"But more importantly, Pakistan needs to create an atmosphere free of cross-border terrorism and demonstrate, with credible evidence, that such activities have been effectively curbed," he said.

India could develop new tools to increase pressure on Pakistan

Ajay Bisaria, a former high commissioner to Pakistan, believes India will seek to put further pressure on Pakistan in the coming years.

"In the next five years, India may go in for an accelerated development program to add canals and storage on the western rivers to have stronger leverage on Pakistan," Bisaria told DW.

He pointed out that treaty law also allows for treaty revision or termination due to significant changes in circumstances, such as technological advancements in dam-building or climate change.

"That would imply that the flow of water in the future may be closely linked to the extent of cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan. Equally, a grand bargain on terrorism may lead to a grand bargain on sharing waters, with a renegotiated successor to the 1960 waters treaty," the diplomat added.

Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab crucial for Pakistan

Mahendra Lama, who specializes in development economics and the economies of South Asia, warns against using military rhetoric when speaking of rivers.

"Water resources are shared natural resources that require cooperative management and diplomacy rather than military confrontation," said Lama.

Millions of people in Pakistan depend on the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers for drinking water, farming, and daily life. These rivers are especially vital in Punjab and Sindh — regions whose agricultural output feeds most of the country's population and is the backbone of the rural economy.

"Managing these transboundary rivers must focus on dialogue, trust-building, legal treaties like the IWT, and collaborative frameworks." he added.

Chance for back-channel diplomacy

Defense expert Sinha, who has studied the issue closely, pointed out to three workable options to resolve the issue through informal back-channel engagement.

"First, a limited revival of data cooperation, project-specific design audits, and operational understanding through back-channel diplomacy where India and Pakistan could agree on seasonal limits for peaking operations (for additional energy gain) or drawdown flushing" to remove sediments, he said.

"Without such pragmatic steps, the risk is not only of military escalation — which would make the basin even less predictable and perilous for its 250 million inhabitants — but also of the steady erosion of stability in everyday water flows," added Sinha.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic