In the middle of Germany's election campaign and after 12 years of talks, Chancellor Angela Merkel may push for an end to accession talks with Turkey. It would be an overdue step. DW's Bernd Riegert offers an analysis.
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EU accession for Turkey is effectively over. Negotiations that began in 2005 may be soon declared dead, and the government – or, better said, regime – of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is responsible. Turkey has neither met EU requirements nor appears anywhere close to doing so. Turkey's April referendum effectively turned the state into an autocracy, thereby ending the possibility of joining Europe's community of democratic states. This much is clear based on regular EU reporting.
German policy shifts
Turkey's rule of law has deteriorated since the failed coup one year ago, and has flipped Germany's Social Democrats (SPD) on the matter of Turkey's EU candidacy. In April, German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel expressed his hope that Turkey would remain a candidate for EU membership.
By August, he had given up that position in light of Ankara's aggressive actions. Martin Schulz, the SPD chancellor candidate and longtime advocate of Turkey's membership, has taken a similar step, calling for an end to talks. During Sunday's televised chancellor debate, Merkel stated what has been obvious for months: "There cannot be a Turkish accession to the EU."
Merkel's comments hardly say anything new. Last week, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said in Brussels that Turkey had already taken huge steps away from Europe, making membership impossible. An official decision to expel Turkey from talks could come as early as this weekend's foreign ministers' meeting or at an EU summit at the end of October. Making good on the unavoidable would be a dramatic turn of events after 12 years: slamming the door to the EU on Turkey.
Juncker had previously warned that Erdogan will have good reason to blame the EU for the failure. However, that would not make the damage any worse. An end to accession talks could also be an end to financial support for accession. So far, suspending payments has been illegal, although the EU has been paying just a small portion of them since 2013.
Turkey never seriously tried
Turkey-EU relations could hardly get any worse. A July meeting between Turkey's foreign minister and the EU's foreign affairs representative showed how little chance there was at renewed progress. The EU ending accession talks would be unprecedented in its history, but at most symbolic. In reality, talks have been on ice since December, when the Council of the European Union refused to open the next chapter in the negotiation process.
Negotiations have effectively gone nowhere since their start 12 years ago because Turkey has repeatedly refused to recognize Cyprus' membership in the EU, an island whose northern half remains occupied by the Turkish military. Even without Turkey's dramatic descent into dictatorship in the last year, this alone shows that Turkey was never really serious about EU membership.
EU social democrats were the most hopeful for Turkey's membership in 2005. At the time, Erdogan was Turkey's EU-friendly prime minister. That hope waned as Erdogan moved ever further away from European values and, with them, EU accession criteria.
Angela Merkel, who was at the time parliamentary opposition leader, spoke out against membership even then. Her conservatives were satisfied with a "privileged" partnership for Turkey. She continued her resistance to membership even after she became chancellor, which meant inheriting negotiations from her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder of the SPD.
On the road with Turkey's march for justice
Ongoing purges and the jailing of elected officials have spurred tens of thousands to march hundreds of kilometers from the Turkish capital Ankara to Istanbul. Diego Cupolo caught up with protesters on Highway D100.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Protesters' calls for justice
Tens of thousands of protesters are on their way to Istanbul. The march is a response to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ongoing purges following last year's failed coup and was sparked when opposition party MP Enis Berberoglu was sentenced to 25 years in prison. The march kicked off three weeks ago in Turkey's capital Ankara and is headed to the prison in Istanbul where Berberoglu is held.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Denouncing government crackdowns
Leading the way is Kemal Kilicdaroglu (c), head of Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), who has been likened to Indian independence leader Mahatma Gandhi. Kilicdaroglu said there is no other way to denounce ongoing crackdowns and the deterioration of democratic institutions. "We feel like we're marching against a wall, and we're going to demolish it," he told DW.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
'Coalition against fascism'
"It's our obligation to form a coalition against the nation's slide towards fascism," said Tur Yildiz Bicer, CHP deputy for the city of Manisa. "After the referendum, we told ourselves 'No, it's not over' … Now we are seeing that even some AKP supporters are backing our march, and this shows people's minds are changing for the better." Some 20,000 to 40,000 people are out on the streets.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
'Rights, law, justice'
One of the protesters is Vesyel Kilic, 65, from Rize, who said he voted for conservative parties until his son was jailed following last year's coup attempt. "It's been 12 months and he still doesn't have an indictment," Kilic said. "I want justice and I noticed this leftist ideology is close to my own, so I came out to support the march." Protesters here are demanding "rights, law, justice."
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
United against Erdogan?
While the organizers with CHP said one of their main objectives was to unite opponents of Erdogan's agenda, the task will likely prove difficult as relations between Kemalists and Kurdish groups remain tepid due to the political risks involved in being affiliated with armed Kurdish movements. Above, marchers are shown resting in Tavsancil, Turkey, before continuing to Istanbul.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Backlash from Erdogan supporters
Protesters were often heckled and insulted by passing vehicles and crowds of Erdogan supporters who had gathered along the highway. "The march is not a fight for justice, it only brings shame to the people who are walking in this heat," said Umut Kaveci, 26, a transportation worker not pictured above. "They are just causing traffic [jams] and no one needs that."
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Heavy police presence
Police presence was heavy throughout the march to deter possible attacks and altercations between groups of contrasting ideologies. For the most part, the protest proceeded smoothly, aside from occasional confrontations like this one, where an officer restrained a teenager and told him, "I've been walking with this march since Ankara and I haven't been aggressive with anyone. Don't test me."
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Blisters and heat strokes
One of Kilicdaroglu's bodyguards gets his feet bandaged after another long day on the road. Blistered, swollen feet are common among marchers, as well as heat strokes. Temperatures surpassed 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in recent weeks and one protester died after suffering a heart attack during a prolonged uphill climb.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Rough terrain
Regardless of the obstacles, demonstrators have followed Kilicdaroglu's lead through Turkey's rough terrain. The march covers up to 20 km (12 miles) per day. By night, protesters either return to their homes or camp out on CHP funded campsites where they are provided with food and rudimentary shelter. Above, an exhausted protester sleeps in a dining tent in Tavsancil, just east of Istanbul.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
'Doing this for my grandchildren'
Husnu Sucu, a 58-year-old retiree, said he remained undeterred after walking more than 120 km in eight days and was camping each night with the protesters. "I am doing this for my grandchildren," Sucu said. "We cannot let the current government continue doing what it wants without doing something about it. It is too dangerous for the future of our country."
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
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Not the ultimate end
But even if accession talks should come to an end, Turkey and the EU are tightly connected both politically and economically. The German government needs to maintain lines of communication with Ankara so it can look after the 50 German citizens currently sitting in Turkish prisons. Turkey wants to maintain its important customs union with Europe, or even expand it, which the EU can use to ensure Turkey continues holding up its end of the refugee deal. Security issues regarding NATO and confronting the so-called "Islamic State" are additional points on which the EU and Turkey need and want to cooperate.
What about the danger of Erdogan completely turning away from the West and cozying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin? Although Erdogan has not threatened Turkey's NATO membership, relations with the Trump administration are tense. In addition to energy, analysts in Brussels worry that Russia could supply Turkey with weapons, such as missile systems.
An end to EU accession talks would be painful, but not the end to all relations with Turkey. However, it is clear that Turkey is not a European state with respect to Article 49 of the Lisbon Treaty, which outlines accession. Holding Turkey's feet to the fire could be a lesson for other member candidates, such as in the Balkans. Should Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Serbia or Kosovo stray from EU membership criteria, the process can be reversed for them, as well.
Turks mark coup anniversary with disparate view of justice, sacrifice
Amidst ongoing purges and a year long state of emergency, Turks observed the anniversary of the failed coup with contrasting views of justice and sacrifice. Diego Cupolo has sent these pictures from Ankara.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
One year after the coup attempt
On Saturday, Turks observed the anniversary of last year’s failed coup, commemorating the nearly 250 people who lost their lives during the event and celebrating the perseverance of the nation. The largest crowds gathered at Istanbul’s Bosphorus Bridge and in central Ankara, pictured above, where demonstrators marched to Turkey’s parliament to attend a speech by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Disparate views in post-coup Turkey
Among the crowds, were many who personally confronted the military on the night of the coup and had made personal sacrifices to defend the democratically elected government. In contrast, opponents of President Erdogan mostly stayed home, viewing the ongoing purges and Turkey’s extended state of emergency as affronts to the nation’s democratic principles that have undermined the rule of law.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
“Our Democracy Watch Continues”
A banner in Ankara reads “Our Democracy Watch Continues,” in reference to democracy watch rallies that took place nightly during the month following the coup attempt. One year on, some Erdogan supporters believe followers of Fethullah Gulen, who the government blames for organizing the putsch, are still working in state offices and may be plotting a second coup attempt.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Support for ongoing purges
Sahibe, 45, a store clerk not pictured above, spoke in favor of the ongoing purges, which have laid off more than 150,000 people over the last year and jailed about 50,000. She said innocent citizens had nothing to worry about and that she hopes “the state of emergency continues until we cleanse the roots Gulenists have made in our country.”
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Extended state of emergency
Yet not all attendees at Saturday’s rallies supported the year-old state of emergency. “I am anxious about the current situation because it gives soldiers the authority to do anything they want,” said Ahmed, who did not give a surname. “If there was a referendum on extending the state of emergency, I think the majority of people would vote against it.”
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
“Stay strong, the people are with you”
A pro-government demonstrator holds a flag featuring Erdogan with the words: “Stay strong, the people are with you.” Reflecting on Erdogan’s leadership, a taxi driver near the rally said, “May god protect us if this man is re-elected in 2019. He’ll bring sharia law to Turkey, which is no problem for men, but it will make life miserable for women.”
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
“We have lost many rights “
Those who didn’t support the rallies kept their distance, such as Seyma Urper, a human rights lawyer working in the southeastern city of Sirnak. "Since the coup attempt, most employees in my municipality were dismissed and the mayor was replaced with a state-appointed trustee," Urper said. "We have lost many rights and it’s getting harder to do my job."
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
“Our country is stronger than ever”
Erol Kanmaz, not pictured above, said his son was shot in the leg on the night of the coup attempt and spent the subsequent six months in the hospital to undergo four surgeries. “I came out tonight to protect my homeland,” Kanmaz said. “Those Gulenist traitors tried to infiltrate our military, but now our country is stronger than ever.”
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
“Tell us to die, we will die”
Sureyya Kalayci (left) displays a homemade t-shirt stating: “A call is enough. Call us and we’ll come. Tell us to die, we will die.” On 15 July 2016, Kalayci and his son Ahmet (right), blocked military vehicles in Ankara’s streets, helping to foil the attempted coup. “If it wasn’t for the people, the military would’ve taken over our country,” Kalayci said.
Image: DW/Diego Cupolo
“We are the grandchildren of the Ottomans”
A demonstrator holds up a scarf reading: “We are the grandchildren of the Ottomans.” Many people in the crowds on Saturday night expressed support for President Erdogan’s policies and believed he was the only leader that could restore Turkey’s stance as an international power, which was tarnished with the fall of the Ottoman Empire 100 years ago.