"We look to Serbia to show commitment, in deeds as well as in words," Ursula von der Leyen said during her visit to the Serbian capital, Belgrade, on October 15.

The European Commission president was in Serbia as part of her tour of the Western Balkans to discuss EU enlargement with candidate countries in the region.

That day, she invited Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to come to Brussels a month later so that the two could "take stock together."

That was October; this is December. According to multiple sources who spoke to DW, the meeting was postponed because Serbia had no progress to report.

It was confirmed on Tuesday that Vucic will travel to Brussels on Wednesday for a meeting with the presidents of the European Commission and the European Council, Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa.

What does the EU expect from Serbia?

Nemanja Todorovic Stiplija, editor-in-chief of the independent, Belgrade-based news portal European Western Balkans, told DW that the European Commission and the European Council have made it clear that Serbia's progress will be measured on three key issues outlined in a paper Serbia submitted to the EU in 2024: improving media freedom, ensuring free and fair elections and aligning Serbia's foreign policy with that of the EU.

In response to a DW inquiry, a Commission spokesperson said that in addition to these areas, Serbia is expected to "invest more effort and make compromises to advance the normalization of relations with Kosovo and address disinformation and foreign manipulation of information."

"Serbia should step up its efforts towards a more stable and higher alignment and reassure us of its strategic direction, including through aligning with EU restrictive measures taken in light of Russia's war of aggression against UA [Ukraine]," said the Commission spokesperson.

Regression on media freedom

So, has Serbia made any progress in these key areas?

While Serbia's media laws have been amended, the amendments have not stopped the continued erosion of media freedom.

Indeed, the European Commission's latest Progress Report notes "backsliding" in the freedom of expression in Serbia, stating that "the environment for journalists, media professionals and outlets [has] seriously worsened."

The Regulatory Body for Electronic Media (REM) is the key institution responsible for overseeing and ensuring the independence of electronic media in Serbia.

One of its main tasks is the election of new REM council members, a process intended to guarantee the body's autonomy. However, the ruling Serbian Progressive Party is accused of manipulating the election process to retain control over REM, thereby undermining the independence of electronic media in the country.

What about free and fair elections?

When it comes to ensuring free and fair elections, the only formal change made by the government concerns amendments to the Law on the Unified Voters' Register.

This amendment stipulated an in-depth audit of the register, which has not yet been carried out, Rasa Nedeljkov of the NGO Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability (CRTA) told DW.

Nedeljkov says that over the past 10 years, the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) has made 56 priority recommendations to Serbia on how to improve electoral conditions. According to the ODIHR's own assessment, only four have been implemented.

Meanwhile, the situation on the ground is getting worse. Recent local elections in Negotin, Mionica and Secanj were marred by physical confrontations, attacks on journalists, observers and opposition members, and allegations of a number of irregularities such as vote-rigging and vote-buying.

"Serbia is rapidly sinking into electoral autocracy, where elections have become a farce and have been replaced by the violent, orchestrated bringing of voters just to register their presence at polling stations, while their will is — through various threats — taken away," said Nedeljkov in reference to reports that people are being bullied into voting a certain way.

Has Serbia's progress ground to a halt?

Countries that want to join the EU are required to implement reforms in a variety of areas in preparation for membership. Negotiations between the bloc and candidate countries are divided into what are known as chapters and clusters.

Serbia has not opened a single chapter or cluster in over three years.

In addition, the EU has already postponed the payment of €111 million ($129 million) in support from its Growth Plan because of unfulfilled reforms.

In October, the European Parliament adopted a harsh resolution condemning political polarization and state repression in Serbia. The Progress Report that was subsequently published noted backsliding not only on media freedom, but also on democracy and fundamental rights.

What does Belgrade want?

Belgrade will be hoping for a shift in Brussels' mood toward Serbia, as that would help the country's leadership both politically and financially.

The government could sell the opening of a negotiation cluster back home as evidence of its legitimacy, which has been weakened by more than a year of anti-government, anti-graft protests.

Moreover, money from the first tranche of the EU Growth Plan would help the government fill budget gaps.

Role of EU member states

But such a change no longer depends solely on the Commission, Bojana Selakovic of the civil society coalition National Convention on the EU told DW: EU member states have a say, too.

"The Baltic states insist that Serbia should fully turn away from its alliance with Russia," she told DW. "Another group — such as Sweden, the Netherlands and Denmark — is very strict regarding democracy and the rule of law, while Germany still insists on resolving the Banjska case," she explained, referring to the armed clash between ethnic Serb militants and Kosovo police in northern Kosovo in September 2023, in which several people were killed.

This explains why Serbia launched an intensive diplomatic effort to change minds across Europe, with Serbia's Parliamentary Speaker Ana Brnabic visiting Sweden and its European Integration Minister Nemanja Starovic traveling to the Netherlands.

Is Serbia a priority for the EU?

At the same time, Brussels is dealing with other crises that push Serbia down its list of priorities.

International relations expert Dusan Reljic noted that Ursula von der Leyen is currently putting out "much bigger fires" — from the US peace plan for Ukraine to relations with Israel and Gaza.

"Events in southeastern Europe are of little significance for EU policy, because there is no major risk of deterioration. What could trigger a deeper or stronger EU response is if it becomes clear again that Aleksandar Vucic and his regime are fundamentally destroying the beginnings of democracy in Serbia," Reljic told DW.

Selakovic, on the other hand, believes the EU is still motivated to keep Serbia within its gravitational field.

"Otherwise Serbia would be left floating in some kind of Turkish scenario, and would actually be a much greater danger to the European Union than if it remained in the package where some minimal progress is recognized and where strategic interests of the EU are secured," she concluded.

Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan