Can Taiwan counter China's 'diplomatic aggression'?
William Yang Taipei
September 27, 2019
Two of Taiwan's allies have severed diplomatic ties with Taipei in the past few days. Amid concerns that China is trying to isolate Taiwan, experts say there are still ways with which it can maintain international clout.
Image: Imago/Panthermedia
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Taiwan suffered a diplomatic setback last week with two of its former allies – Solomon Islands and Kiribati – choosing to sever ties with Taipei. This leaves only 15 countries in the world that recognize its sovereignty. Since 2016, Taiwan has lost five allies to China.
China's aggressive diplomatic efforts to isolate Taiwan have alarmed the authorities in Taipei, as they feel they are being systematically cornered.
Since Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen came to power in 2016, China has piled more pressure on Taiwan. China has also been blocking Taiwanese representatives from attending international conferences as observers.
"Beijing's main objective has always been to use this strategy as a psychological weapon against Taiwan," Jonathan Sullivan, director of the China Policy Institute at the University of Nottingham, told DW.
Experts say that while the decision by some countries to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan won't seriously affect Taipei's position, it nonetheless is a worrying trend.
"Taiwan presents itself as a sovereign nation. One of the elements of sovereignty is having diplomatic relations with other countries," Bonnie Glaser, a senior advisor for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told DW. "If Taiwan eventually loses all diplomatic allies, it could weaken its claim to be a sovereign nation. From that perspective, I think it is important for Taiwan to not lose its remaining diplomatic partners."
Analysts say Taiwan also needs to focus on maintaining informal relations with the EU and countries like the US and Japan. Glaser believes the Taiwanese government should try to enter into agreements with these countries. This, she says, will increase its international competitiveness.
"Some countries are more engaged with Taiwan in certain areas," Glaser explained.
China and Taiwan: Best enemies?
Chinese President Xi recently called for a "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan, prompting criticism from Taipei. What is the "Taiwan issue" all about? DW explores the history of the conflict through these photographs.
Image: AFP/AFP/Getty Images
Recapturing vs. liberation
After the end of WWII, the Communist Party of China (CPC) under Mao Zedong pursued a fierce battle against his archrival Chiang Kai-shek, chief of the Kuomintang (KMT) party. Chiang lost and took refuge in the island of Taiwan. For some time after that, Taiwan was the center of propaganda from both sides. The CPC wanted to "liberate" Taiwan, while Kuomintang wanted to "recapture the mainland."
Image: AFP/Getty Images
Letters to 'compatriots'
In the 1950s, the CPC published four "Messages to Chinese compatriots" in Taiwan, which are considered the basis of Beijing's Taiwan policy. In these texts, Beijing warned Taiwan of collaborating with US "imperialists." Military confrontation, particularly artillery attacks, also continued during this time.
Image: Imago/Zuma/Keystone
Beijing replaces Taipei in UN bodies
In 1971, the United Nations General Assembly declared that the People's Republic of China was the sole lawful representative of the country. With this decision, the Republic of China (ROC)/Taiwan was removed from all UN bodies. The frustration of ROC's foreign minister, Chow Shu-kai (right), and his ambassador Liu Chieh is easy to see in this picture.
Image: Imago/ZUMA/Keystone
New Taiwan policy
The fifth and last "message" from Beijing to Taiwan was published on January 1, 1979. The mainland, under the leadership of the reformist Deng Xiaoping ended military operations, announced the development of bilateral ties and promised peaceful reunification. However, Beijing's right to represent China internationally was not to be questioned.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/UPI
'One China' policy
The new orientation of China's Taiwan policy took place as Washington and Beijing got closer. On January 1, 1979, the US and China resumed diplomatic relations, with Washington under President Jimmy Carter recognizing Beijing as the sole legitimate government of the whole of China. The US embassy in Taiwan was remodeled into an institute for culture.
Image: AFP/AFP/Getty Images
'One China, two systems'
Even before meeting US President Carter, Deng Xiaoping had introduced the principle of "one country, two systems," which allowed Taiwan to maintain its social systems even after reunification. However, Taiwan's President Chiang Ching-Kuo did not immediately fall for it. On the contrary, in 1987 he formulated the principle of "one China for the better system."
Image: picture-alliance/Everett Collection
The independence movement
In 1986, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Taiwan's first opposition party, was founded. At a meeting in 1991, the DPP declared a clause for Taiwan's independence, which stipulated that Taiwan was sovereign and not a part of China.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/S. Yeh
'Consensus of 1992'
In unofficial Hong Kong talks in 1992, representatives of Taipei and Beijing reached a political agreement on the nature of their relationship. Both parties agreed that there was only one China. However, they had different views on what "One China" meant. A year later, the chief negotiators Wang (left) and Koo met in Singapore.
Image: Imago/Xinhua
Bilateral relations
In an interview with DW in 1995, the first democratically elected President of Taiwan and the KMT leader Lee Teng-hui said that all relations beyond the straits of Taiwan would be "defined as relations between states; at the very least, as a relationship of a special kind between states." His formulation was very close to being a declaration of independence.
Image: Academia Historica Taiwan
'A state on every side'
The DPP won the presidential election for the first time in 2000 with Chen Shui-bian, a Taiwanese-born politician who had no connections to mainland China, calling for "a state on each side." It meant that Taiwan should have nothing to do with China anymore. In 2005, Beijing reacted with the Anti-Secession Law, which allowed the use of military force in the event that Taiwan declared independence.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/Jerome Favre
'One China, different interpretations'
After losing the elections in 2000, the KMT adopted a changed formulation of the "Consensus of 1992" in the party's statute, which called for "one China, different interpretations." That is why the 1992 Consensus is still debated in Taiwan. The reason: the negotiators of 1992 did not have an official position.
Image: Imago/ZumaPress
CPC meets KMT
The mainland adopted the "Consensus of 1992" as a political basis for creating a relationship with Taiwan. In the first summit between the two sides since the communists came to power in China, Hu Jintao (right) and Lian Zhan endorsed the "Consensus of 1992" and the "One China" principle.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Reynolds
'The direction is correct'
After KMT's Ma Ying-Jeou won the 2008 presidential elections, both sides continued to come closer. In an interview with DW in 2009, Ma said: "The straits of Taiwan should be a place of peace and security. We have come a lot closer to this goal. Basically our direction is correct."
Image: GIO
Quo vadis?
After the elections in 2016, when President Tsai Ing-wen came to power, the independence movement gained a lot of wind. Tsai disputed the existence of the 1992 consensus and described the "attempt of China to interfere in the political and social development of Taiwan" as the "biggest challenge."
Image: ROC
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The expert is of the view that an increased engagement with other countries would be beneficial for Taiwan, irrespective of diplomatic recognition. "And under President Tsai Ing-wen, this has dramatically increased."
"Taiwan can play a constructive role in working with a number of countries that want to counter China's expansion in the Indo-Pacific region," Kharis Templeman, a Taiwan expert, told DW. "That will be more beneficial for Taiwan's security in the long run," he added.
To counter China's move to hinder Taiwan's participation in international meetings or organizations, Glaser suggests Taiwan should consider creating new platforms or organizations with like-minded countries.
"China has been very successful in preventing Taiwan from participating in multilateral meetings, and this strategy is constraining Taiwan's voice in the international community," Glaser said, adding that for this reason Taiwan should try to launch new platforms, or even organizations, and invite other countries to join them.
Interference in domestic politics?
Many in Taiwan are concerned about China's alleged interference in domestic politics ahead of the presidential vote. Beijing's international efforts to diplomatically isolate China may also have a domestic angle, analysts say.
On September 23, Taiwan's National Security Council warned that more allies could change allegiance to China in the coming months. But some say that the strategy won't be very effective for Beijing.
Templeman points out that the Chinese government has always avoided targeting Taiwan's diplomatic allies around the elections, as it could increase resentment against Beijing on the island.
"It's not clear if Beijing has changed this policy, but I think that 'diplomatic-poaching' would not help China-friendly candidates in Taiwan," Templeman told DW. "In the past, Beijing's attempts to influence Taiwanese voters usually backfired. China-friendly candidates have a better chance when the Chinese government is not involved."
Analyst Glaser also says that Beijing's recent diplomatic campaign is not aimed at influencing the upcoming presidential election. "I think China will find more covert ways to interfere with Taiwan's domestic politics, as some things that Beijing does can easily backfire."
