The increasingly unstable situation in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo has occupied politicians and diplomats in recent days, both at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa (February 14–15, 2026) and the parallel Munich Security Conference.

President Felix Tshisekedi sent his foreign minister, Therese Kayikwamba Wagner, to Munich.

In an exclusive interview with DW, she affirmed her government intends to honor the ceasefire agreement scheduled for February 18: "We must do everything to keep the weapons silent."

Mediation efforts have failed so far

The agreement is based on the Washington Accords for Peace and Prosperity, a US-brokered peace deal signed in late 2025, in Washington D.C. between the DR Congo and Rwanda.

Rwanda has long been accused, including by the United Nations, of supporting the M23 militia militarily, financially, and politically — allegations Rwanda denies. Earlier peace efforts by Angola, Kenya, Togo, and Qatar had little lasting impact.

"It's not the first attempt. We will do everything to fulfill our commitments and hope the other side does the same," Wagner said, emphasizing that the various peace processes are complementary and reinforce each other. 

Kigali: Rwanda is 'not part of the conflict'

Rwandan President Paul Kagame was absent from the Munich Security Conference, but his Interior Minister Vincent Biruta outlined his country's position: "The conflict parties are M23 and the government of DR Congo. Rwanda is not a warring party."

He stressed that the reopening of Goma airport after the ceasefire must be coordinated with the M23, which has become the de facto authority there. Goma, capital of North Kivu, fell to M23 militias in January 2025.

The UN reported at least 3,000 deaths, along with cases of sexual violence and widespread insecurity.

"The de facto authorities controlling the area must be consulted on reopening the airport. That's logical," Biruta said.

According to him, Rwanda does not occupy the region: "For us, this is a matter between the Congolese government and the M23 de facto authority."

For the ceasefire to hold, both sides must respect it and the mechanism must be implemented quickly.

US threatens sanctions for violations

The United States has warned that any party violating the ceasefire — both Rwanda and DRC — could face sanctions. Massad Boulos, US President Donald Trump's adviser on Africa, told DW: "We will not accept the agreement being ignored by any party."

He added the US is working closely with African partners such as Angola, Togo, and soon Burundi.

African Union: "African solutions to African problems"

Angolan President Joao Lourenco, AU chair until February 14, 2026, has long been a key mediator and leads the Luanda Process, aimed at de-escalating tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali.

At the AU summit's conclusion, Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye took over the chairmanship.

In his farewell speech, Lourenco highlighted that the Luanda Process paved the way for the Washington peace agreement. Other African countries, including Kenya, Togo, and now Burundi, continue to seek "African solutions to African problems."

Despite these efforts, the situation remains precarious, with past ceasefires repeatedly broken and M23 controlling large areas.

Ceasefire 'unlikely'

Timo Roujean of the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation told DW: "I consider a ceasefire starting Wednesday unlikely." 

Besides the government and M23, Wazalendo militias, which are only partially under Congolese state control, are involved.

Political scientist Jona Thiel, based in Germany, adds: "M23 is not the only actor. Around 120 rebel groups operate in eastern DR Congo, each with its own interests. Achieving a comprehensive peace under a single agreement is almost impossible."

In addition to Wazalendo militias, the Islamic State-linked Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militia, originally from Uganda, continues to terrorize communities in North Kivu and Beni, committing massacres and using child soldiers.

US economic interests could promote peace

"The diplomacy is intense, also due to US interests in lasting peace in this resource-rich region. Five resource concessions have been promised to American companies," Roujean notes.

Thiel adds: "For the Trump administration, the Congo is a way to challenge China's dominance in the resource sector."

US companies plan large-scale extraction in Manono, Tanganyika province.

Roujean emphasizes: "The Americans have a vested interest in freezing the front line and preventing M23 from advancing south."

After capturing Goma in January 2025, rebels advanced to Uvira. US diplomatic pressure on Rwanda led to the M23 pulling back two weeks later. 

While few believe the guns will completely fall silent on February 18, analysts are optimistic diplomacy can resolve the conflict given that the economic interests of the US and Congolese governments rely on stability in the eastern DRC.

Edited by Cai Nebe