The sentencing of Chad's former Prime Minister Succes Masra to 20 years in prison is widely seen as a deliberate move by President Mahamat Idriss Deby to quieten opposition voices.

Masra, who briefly served in Deby's transitional government before returning to the opposition, was convicted of illegal possession of ammunition and incitement of violence linked to unrest in the southwestern Logone Occidental region in May this year, which resulted in the deaths of 42 people.

Masra has denied the charges and has vowed to appeal the decision, telling his supporters: "I'll be back soon."

Claudia Hoinathy, the vice president in charge of leadership and women's engagement within Masra's Les Transformateurs party, said to DW that the conviction was completely unjust, having witnessed the three days of the hearings for herself.

In her view, it is merely an attempt for Deby to tighten his grip on power ahead of the next electoral cycle — even at the risk of triggering instability in an already precarious transition. The only way out, she believes, is a unified front:

"There are many opposition parties who have come to see us, to support us at our headquarters, who have sent out communiques," Hoinathy said. "And I think that's the ultimate solution we have left, to unite.”

20-year verdict on trumped up charges?

Political analyst Nixon Katembo meanwhile echoed similar sentiments, saying that the trial was never really about the charges to begin with, but rather about silencing a political rival who had already proven that he could disrupt Chad's order.

"This is more of a political message rather than about charges or equivalent to the charges that were brought against him," Katembo said, arguing that the heavy prison term was intended to make sure that "the opposition is curtailed."

After spending years in exile in the Central African Republic, Masra was invited back to Chad to help form a transitional government and was appointed prime minister under Mahamat Idriss Deby.

"Immediately after Deby tried to form a government of national unity leading up to the elections, Masra was placed at the heart of power," Katembo recalls, highlighting the young politician's popularity.

But the honeymoon between the two politicians was short-lived, as within five months Masra broke ranks, contested the presidency and ultimately lost, which Katembo believes sealed his fate.

The verdict against Masra comes less than three months after Deby secured his victory in an election which the opposition claims was neither free nor fair.

Masra: a threat to Chad's dynastic rule

Critics say the sentence strikes at the heart of the already fragile credibility of a transition process which began when Deby took power in 2021 after the death of his father, Idriss Deby Itno, in battle.

Analysts like Katembo argue that the conviction against Masra serves two main purposes: removing a powerful opposition figure capable of galvanizing nationwide protests while also sending a stark warning to anyone tempted to defy the country's ruling elite.

Lewis Mudge, Central Africa director at Human Rights Watch, stressed in a statement that "the sentence given to Succes Masra sends a chilling message to critics and demonstrates the Chadian government's intolerance of criticism and political opposition parties."

"The courts should not be used for such political purposes," Mudge added, highlighting that the conviction had "upended hopes for a meaningful political opposition and an independent judiciary in Chad."

Various human rights groups have warned that the ruling could reignite pockets of unrest similar to the October 2022 protests, when security forces killed scores of demonstrators.

"Chad's regional and international supporters should denounce this politically motivated judgment and urge the country's leaders to make good on promises for democratic reform," Mudge underlined.

With Chad remaining a key military partner in counterterrorism operations across the Sahel, it is unlikely that major regional players like the African Union will publicly comment on the goings-on, though it is likely that concern for Chad's future is not limited to local voices.

Fighting to galvanize opposition

For Masra's supporters, the verdict confirms fears that the transition in Chad is shifting from a carefully stage-managed facade of democracy to a dynastically entrenched reality of one-man rule.

Hoinathy says the party had prepared for the scenario of Masra's detention by preemtively putting a new leadership structure in place.

"The president of the party has appointed our dean, Bedoumra Kordje, to lead a collegial leadership team. This means that together with the vice presidents already in place, the work of the president's chief of staff and of the secretary-general will carry on while we continue to fight for his release," she told DW.

"Our offices are open every day, and every weekend, we organize large gatherings that call on activists to come and show their disagreement with what is happening," she added, highlighting the party's ongoing efforts to translate Masra's detention into a grassroots momentum bringing together various opposition groupings.

Whether the ruling succeeds in silencing dissent in the long-run or rather fuels a broader resistance will likely depend on how far Deby will continue to push restrictions in the political space, and also whether international partners choose stability over democratic accountability.

Either way, even without his arrest and detention, Masra's options appear limited, as he now has a previous conviction which automatically bars him from running for office — something even a pardon cannot erase.

"It would not allow him to come back and interact or to act as president of the party," Hoinathy explained.

Instead, Les Transformateurs are considering giving Masra amnesty, while lawyers continue to appeal the decision. If they eventually succeed with their appeal, the previous conviction could be expunged.

Edited by: Sertan Sanderson