China's leader Xi Jinping is set to travel to Vietnam this week to meet Nguyen Phu Trong, the general secretary of the smaller country's ruling Communist party. The two Asian nations are close — bilateral trade is growing and the two authoritarian regimes share a mutual understanding and a common political ideology.  

"Hanoi will roll out the red carpet for Xi Jinping," said Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington who focuses on Southeast Asian politics and security.

"China awarded general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong their highest award for foreigners last November. I expect something similar," he added.

"China always places a high priority on relations with bordering countries, and Vietnam is a fraternal socialist country making it even more of an important relationship," he told DW.

Vietnam shops around for strategic partners

At the same time, Abuza notes that China has been "clearly unhappy" by Hanoi flirting with the US and its close allies. In September, US President Joe Biden visited Vietnam, with him and Trong signing a "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for Peace, Cooperation and Sustainable Development" between the two countries.

With this move, Vietnam added the US to a short list of strategic partners which also includes China, India, Russia and South Korea, and most recently, Japan. Hanoi and Tokyo decided to elevate their diplomatic relations to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership after Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong visited Japan at the end of November.

Hanoi steers clear of 'China's orbit'

Bill Hayton, an associate fellow with the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House, a think tank in London, said Vietnam has upgraded ties with others to maintain its own independence.

"China is a massive country that's right on their border, but they don't want to be sucked into China's orbit." Hayton stressed.

While Vietnam is "very much attached to Asia and its relations with China," it uses the US, Japan, India, and other partners to preserve its autonomy, according to the expert.

China still Vietnam's top trading partner

Compared to Washington, Beijing has had a massive head start in building its partnership with Vietnam — China and Vietnam signed their strategic partnership deal in 2008.

China is Vietnam's largest trading partner. Bilateral commerce surpassed $200 billion (€186 billion) in 2021, according to reports. In comparison, the US-Vietnam trade reached around $111.5 billion in the same year.

Economy will play a key role in the high-level meetings between Xi and various Vietnamese leaders this week, according to Nguyen Khac Giang, a researcher and visiting fellow at ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute.

"While geopolitical implications will take the headline, the visit also symbolizes the strengthening ties between Vietnam and China," he said.

Xi's trip will be his third official visit to Vietnam since he became president in March 2013. According to Nguyen Khac Giang, Xi has made few international trips after the COVID pandemic, and his choice to visit Hanoi "highlights Vietnam's significance in China's grand strategy."

"While Vietnam may remain cautious about joining China-led political initiatives, I think we can expect both sides to improve economic cooperation, particularly in infrastructure development and green energy transitions, where Vietnam desperately needs more investments," he said.

Vietnam has become a renewable energy leader in Southeast Asia, despite its massive coal reserves.

What about the South China Sea?

Moving away from trade, Vietnam and China have not been able to defuse tensions over disputed territory in the South China Sea. The two nations claim sovereignty over the Spratly and Paracel Islands, part of a larger territorial dispute affecting several nations in the region.

"The South China Sea is an irritant for the leadership in Hanoi. It puts them in a very awkward position," said US professor Abuza.

"They can't afford to stand up and confront China, but failing to do so opens them up to criticism by their own population. They can't appear to be capitulating to Beijing," he added.

But even with this conflict, major rifts between the two remain unlikely, said Hayton.

"For the Vietnamese Communist Party, the Chinese Communist Party is their best friend in the world. And the things that the Communist parties worry about, mainly like losing power, they share and so they work together to preserve their regimes. And I think that's far more important than anything to do with South China Sea or the other issues that divide them," he said.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic