The first election forecasts predicted an overwhelming victory for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in German state elections in Hesse and Lower Saxony just after polling stations closed at 6:00 p.m.

According to the Infratest/Dimap forecast, the CDU will have an absolute majority in Hesse and is just short of one in Lower Saxony. There the conservatives can rely on the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP), which secured enough votes to be the CDU's junior coalition partner.

A new premier

In Lower Saxony, it appears that CDU candidate Christian Wulff may have unseated Social Democrat (SPD) Premier Sigmar Gabriel. Forecasts say the CDU polled 48 percent, 12 percent more than in 1998 elections. Christian Wullf would thus enter parliament with 84 CDU mandates.

According to Infratest/Dimap the SPD received 33 percent, a loss of 15 percent, and will fill 58 seats in parliament in Hanover, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's home.

While Christian Wulff attributed the SPD's poor showing to Chancellor Schröder's economic policies, Sigmar Gabriel remarked laconically, "This is not an easy evening for us."

The forecasters reckon the FDP achieved 8.5 percent of the ballots, while the Green Party polled 7.5 percent.

Accolades for Koch

In Hesse Premier Roland Koch (CDU) (photo) easily defended his position, winning 50 percent of the vote and 58 seats in Wiesbaden's parliament say the predictions. The absolute majority would allow the CDU to govern alone. SPD candidate Gerhard Bökel was no real challenger, polling an estimated 27 percent, the party's worst result in the postwar period. Bökel submitted his resignation from the party chairmanship and the state parliamentary group shortly after the forecasts were publicized.

Premier Koch declared that it was a "great evening for the CDU." This is the beginning of a new era for the Hessian CDU too," he added.

Infratest/Dimap put the Green Party in third place in Hesse with 10.0 percent. They estimate the Free Democrats polled 8.5 percent there.

Ten million voters were called to the polls for the two state elections. In Lower Saxony 60 percent of those registered had cast their ballots by the late afternoon, 4 percent less then at the same time on election day in 1998. In Hesse participation was low, as in the past. While 34.9 percent had voted by 2:00 p.m., during the last elections in 1999 34.7 had voted by then.

Consequences in Berlin

While Chancellor Schröder's SPD-Green Party coalition has a majority in the Bundestag, the opposition may have increased its power in the country's other chamber of parliament, the Bundesrat, by winning in Lower Saxony. The CDU's additional six seats there would make it more difficult for Chancellor Schröder to pursue his policies. He will likely be forced to make more compromises to sway votes his way.

Currently the CDU holds 35 of the 69 mandates in the Bundesrat, Germany's upper legislative chamber representing the states.