There's only so much greenhouse gas we can emit before global temperature rise exceeds 2 degrees — the so-called carbon budget. And Germany will blow its share of the budget if it doesn't quit coal soon, experts warn.
Image: picture-alliance/H. Bäsemann
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Global warming is pure physics. Climate gases like carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide collect in the atmosphere and absorb sunlight and solar radiation that would normally escape into space.
Acting like a greenhouse, they trap the heat, and global temperatures rise.
In order to limit global warming and its dangerous and unpredictable effects on life on Earth, it's crucial to slow down the rate at which we're emitting these gases, and CO2 — the one humans are emitting most — in particular.
Under the UN Paris Climate Agreement, the international community has committed to limiting global warming to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) — and ideally no more than 1.5 degrees — above pre-industrial levels.
And that means some very hefty cuts in our carbon emissions.
How much CO2 can the atmosphere take?
But how hefty?
Climate physicists have calculated a "CO2 budget," that is, how much more of this gas the atmosphere can absorb before we break our 2-degree limit.
COP23: Our changing world
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Sweltering heat, drought, wildfires and record-shattering storms: The first signs of climate change are already being felt around the world, and so far we have only pushed the average global temperature up by 1 degree Celsius.
If the international community aims for the 1.5 degrees goal, it can only emit 140 billion more tons of CO2.
Germany's CO2 budget
Dividing the global CO2 budget by the number of people living on Earth, the SRU calculated how much greenhouse gas Germany can still emit to fulfill its commitment to the Paris Climate Agreement.
That means each country gets a budget determined by its population size. Historical emissions aren’t taken into account, so countries that have not industrialized yet don't get a bigger budget per capita than the richer ones responsible for the climate change we’ve already seen.
According to these calculations, from 2019, Germany can release around 6.6 billion tons of CO2 over the coming decades.
If Germany continues with business as usual and produces the same amount of greenhouse gas emissions annually as it does now, it would use up its budget within seven years, the SRU experts warn.
The biggest share of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany comes from energy production, followed by industry, transportation and agriculture.
Around a quarter of the Germany's energy comes from lignite, or brown coal. Lignite is a particularly dirty fuel, responsible for almost a fifth of the country's CO2 emissions.
Germany currently discusses its coal exit strategyImage: picture alliance/Geisler-Fotopress
The SRU experts say there's one very important step Germany can take to stay within its carbon budget.
They calculated the CO2 budget for all coal power plants, arguing that they can only emit 1.5 billion tons of CO2 to meet the national climate goals.
If coal power plants continue to operate as usal, the lignite CO2 budget will be used up by the end of 2023, the members of the advisory council warn.
In June, the government has tasked a special commission with planning the country's coal exit.
The SRU experts presented their results to the commission in mid September, calling on the government to quickly phase out coal and shut down the dirtiest plants by 2020.
"If we now quickly shut down the oldest and most inefficient plants, we can keep the other coal power plants on the grid for longer, lower costs and increase security of supply," said Claudia Kemfert, energy expert and member of the advisory council, in a statement.
The commission, made up of 31 individuals including trade unionists, employers, scientists, environmentalists and people who live in areas where coal is mined, is expected to deliver a preliminary report at the end of this year.
2017: Devastating effects of climate change
The world is increasingly taking action to stop climate change. But the frequency of devastating climate events in 2017 has shown that we are starting to run out of time. DW takes at look at some of the most dramatic.
Image: Reuters/E. De Castro
Sweltering heat
Unprecedented heat waves swept across the globe in 2017, leading to droughts, wildfires and even deaths. Australia started the year with temperatures near 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit), the "Lucifer" heat wave brought the mercury above 40 degrees Celsius throughout Southern Europe in July and August and scorching heat hit India's most vulnerable people. Get ready for next summer...
Image: Imago/Agencia EFE
Disappearing wonder
Earlier this year, scientists realized that coral bleaching in Australia's Great Barrier Reef was worse than first thought. In some parts of the UNESCO World Heritage site, up to 70 percent of the coral has already been killed. By 2050, scientists have warned 90 percent of the reef could disappear. Rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification are the main culprits.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Deadly combination
Armed conflicts are pushing millions of people to leave their homes or live in terribly precarious situations — and climate change is making it worse. A lack of natural resources increases the risk of conflict and makes life even harder for refugees. South Sudanese families, for instance, are escaping to neighboring countries like Uganda and Kenya — countries already suffering from drought.
Image: Reuters/G.Tomasevic
World on fire
From New Zealand to Spain, from California to even Greenland: the world has seen a nonstop year of wildfires. Global warming has been blamed for the increased fire risk, and in some countries that risk has turned into reality. Wildfires engulfed large areas of Europe's Iberian Peninsula, causing death and destruction, while firefighters in California have had no rest for more than six months.
Image: Reuters/G. Blevins
Record-shattering storms
Hurricanes Maria and Irma, which hit the Caribbean region in August and September, were two of the year's most damaging weather events. The list of deadly storms also included Ophelia in Ireland, Harvey and Nate in Central America and the US, and Xavier and Sebastian in Germany. Warming of the ocean surface has led to more evaporation, and that water may help fuel thunderstorms and hurricanes.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/Str
Melting Antarctica
In July, one of the largest icebergs ever recorded separated from the Larsen C ice shelf — one of Antarctica's biggest — reducing its area by more than 12 percent. While calving icebergs in the Antarctic are part of a natural cycle, scientists have linked the retreat of several Antarctic ice shelves to global warming and are closely monitoring potential long-term effects.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/NASA/J. Sonntag
Struggle to breathe
Deteriorating air quality causes thousands of deaths around the world every year. India's capital, New Delhi, is one of the world's most polluted cities. In November, large parts of northern India and Pakistan were engulfed by a blanket of thick smog carrying harmful particulate matter. Schools were forced to close, and hospitals were full of people with respiratory problems.
Image: Reuters/S. Khandelwal
Oceans at risk
The high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere represent a major threat for our oceans, already in danger due to plastic pollution, overfishing and warming waters. Ocean acidification could make these waters — covering more than two-thirds of our planet's surface — a hostile environment for sea creatures. And without marine animals, entire ocean ecosystems are at risk.
Image: picture-alliance/Photoshot/B. Coleman
Fierce floods and mudslides
Superstorms often trigger flash floods and mudslides. In late December, more than 230 people were killed when a storm hit the Philippines' second-largest island of Mindanao, a tragedy exacerbated by years of deforestation. In 2017, severe floods also hit countries such as Vietnam, Peru and Sierra Leone. European countries, including Greece and Germany, also felt the damaging effects of heavy rain.
