Wednesday morning, May 14: Gate Four of the Ford plant in Cologne is sealed off with red-and-white barrier tape. On the turnstiles, a couple of sheets of paper announce "Strikebreakers enter through Gate 1." But hardly anyone does so. According to David Lüdtke, the IG-Metall union's employee representative at Ford, more than 10,000 of the 11,500 employees downed tools for those 24 hours.

Thirty-year-old Ahmet Cözmez is a development engineer in Ford's production development department. "We're worried; we're tense and anxious," he told DW.

His grandfather came to Germany in 1970 as a so-called "guest worker," traveling by train from Istanbul to Cologne, where he worked on the Ford assembly line. Cözmez' father was a production worker for the American car manufacturer; he was also a full-time member of the works council, and sat on the Ford supervisory board as an employee representative.

"The Ford DNA is in us," says Cözmez. "Once Ford, always Ford" was the mantra of the older generation in his family: Start work at Ford, and you've a job for life. Now, though, the US company wants to cut 2,900 jobs at this factory in Cologne.

Solidarity with Ford workers

The one-day strike was the first official strike in the Cologne plant's history. There was a wildcat strike by employees from the Turkish community in 1973, but it wasn't organized by an established union.

The Ford workforce were not the only ones out on strike that day. Members of the IG Metall metalworkers' union came from all over Germany to support them, as did workers from the mining and chemicals industries. The strikers even received expressions of solidarity from abroad.

Ahmet Cözmez told DW that while many people were ready to fight for their jobs, there was a great deal of uncertainty.

Ford shows signs of weakness

Industry experts fear that the future for Ford in Europe is looking bleak. "The situation is bad, and the outlook is even worse," said the director of the Bochum Center for Automotive Research (CAR), Ferdinand Dudenhöffer. In his view, Ford is too small a player in the passenger vehicle sector to be profitable in Europe.

Ford's European business has been loss-making for some time now. For years the compact Ford Fiesta passenger car, manufactured in Cologne, was a big commercial success, but production was discontinued in 2023 to make way for electric models.

Ford now manufactures two electric cars in Cologne. However, sales of these have also been much lower than expected, and the company's investment of around €2 billion ($2.3 billion) in the production of the new electric cars has so far not paid off.

"German car manufacturers were late in switching to electromobility," says Anita Wölfl, a specialist at the ifo Center for the Economics of Innovation and Digital Transformation. "It seems Ford is struggling with it even more."

Economic situation affects the automotive industry

Ford clearly isn't the only oneunder pressure. Other car manufacturers, including Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW, are also showing signs of weakness.

The automotive sector has been particularly affected by the recent economic downturn. People still have to eat when money is tight — but they can do without buying a new car. Germany is currently in recession for the second year in a row. Wölfl told DW that the entire auto industry was noticing a degree of consumer reticence.

Fear of international consequences

The ripple effect of the Ford crisis in Cologne may also be felt abroad, and a weak German car industry could have consequences for many other sectors worldwide.

"Added to this, there is the Trump effect. The US tariffs on cars and automobile parts are damaging the automobile industry," said Wölfl. "This industry is characterized by a complex, internationally integrated supply chain: "Even if a company is not directly affected, the tariffs could have indirect consequences."

Fighting for security

Despite the poor outlook for Ford, David Lüdtke from IG Metall says the union is still fighting for the future of the company, and to preserve jobs.

Should they be unsuccessful, IG Metall wants to ensure that all employees receive fair compensation, as well as transfer measures, and a strong security net with insolvency protection. This recently became even more of a priority.

Earlier this year, Ford USA announced a capital injection of billions of euros into its German business. But in doing so, it also terminated the so-called "letter of comfort" it issued in 2006, in which the US parent company guaranteed the financial obligations of its German subsidiary.

IG Metall and the works council fear that the cancellation of the comfort letter means that, although back then they obtained a guarantee that there would be no layoffs before 2032, this assurance may now also be in jeopardy.

Workers' union fights on

In spite of all the uncertainties, the strike does seem to have had an effect. "Although we don't yet have a result, the negotiations have progressed since then, and have moved in our direction," says Lüdtke.

Details have not yet been confirmed, but IG Metall Cologne said it had reached an agreement with the German management on the key points to be addressed in further talks.

"Once they have coordinated with the corporate headquarters in the US, a decision will be taken on how we are to proceed: Whether we will continue to negotiate, or whether there will be further industrial action," said Lüdtke.

This article has been translated from German.