Myanmar's decision this week to release more than 6,300 prisoners including more than 200 political detainees under the terms of an amnesty has raised hopes in the West that the country's political elite may be serious about fostering a democratic system after years of repression. The move was hailed by EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton as a sign of the new government's pledge to reform. US Senator John Kerry, a senior Democrat who ran for presidency in 2004, hit a similar note when he spoke of "cautious hopes that maybe there's a transition taking place."

The West will get an opportunity to test the waters during Myanmar President Thein Sein's current visit to India, a country which has long argued that the West would be the big loser if it did nothing to counter Myanmar's significant dependence on China. India has the opportunity to encourage Sein to distance himself further from Beijing and to release more political prisoners in return for Indian expertise to help exploiting Myanmar's substantial raw material reserves and help alleviate poverty at home.

Biting the hand that feeds it

There are some signs that such efforts may fall on fertile ground. The prisoner amnesty is the latest in a series of developments which suggest that Myanmar's new president and former senior military junta member, Thein Sein, is willing to make concessions to long-standing demands from Western governments. Since he was sworn in as the country's leader in March 2011 Sein has eased restrictions on 1991 Nobel peace prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of the opposition, allowing her to enter the political arena for the first time in 20 years. Indeed in August Sein met Suu Kyi for the first time and was photographed with a picture of her father and independence hero Aung San hanging on his office wall. A gesture like this would have been unthinkable just a year ago. Since that meeting bilateral relations between Myanmar and the US have been enjoying a low-key and modest revival.

When on September 30 the Myanmar government suspended a controversial dam building project backed by the country's Chinese neighbors, some observers were quick to point out that this was the first time the government had responded to public opinion in many, many years. And more significantly, it had bitten the Chinese hand that feeds it very hard. A week later an official revealed that the government was reviewing a relaxation of the stringent press freedom laws.

A 'Burmese spring' or tactical considerations?

Against the background of these developments it is possible to argue that a new trend towards democracy and away from political repression is emerging. This week's amnesty can be viewed as evidence of a new course.

But doubts remain. Has the ruling elite - a group of military men who ruled Myanmar with an iron fist for a generation and who demonstrated in the process scant regard for human rights and basic democratic principles - suddenly changed its convictions? This is highly improbable not least because the new constitution, written by the military to ensure their hold on power, is still in place. Neither are there any signs that it will be rewritten any time soon.

A more likely explanation for the new course is that Western sanctions have been taking their toll on the country. Myanmar urgently needs them to be lifted. The sanctions have also dramatically increased the country's dependence upon China – something that observers say is becoming increasing unpopular in Myanmar. For this reason, the signs of a political "spring" in the country are more likely to be a concerted effort by the ruling elite to see how the West will react to small steps toward political liberalization. The fact that the amnesty left most of the country's estimated 2,100 political prisoners behind bars suggests that Thein Sein and his allies are still willing to hold them hostage to see what concessions the West is prepared to make and when. If things do not go according to plan, the government could revert to its old habit of repressing the opposition.

Point of no return

For this reason, Europe, the United States, Germany and Australia are absolutely right to make the release of all political detainees a prerequisite to lifting economic sanctions. It is now up to India to press the issue. After all, the opposition in Myanmar has already expressed its disappointment about the amnesty. At the same time the West should encourage Myanmar to go further. Encouragement is needed because such processes nearly always have a "tipping point" after which they cannot be reversed, as the "Arab spring" shows. The West needs to get Myanmar to that point of no return.

Author: Grahame Lucas
Editor: Sarah Berning