The fact that only a few highly infectious people are responsible for the spread of the novel coronavirus sounds dramatic. But knowing that may also make it easier to design a targeted strategy to handle the pandemic.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/S. Kembowski
Advertisement
The more scientists study SARS-CoV-2, the more we learn about the novel coronavirus and its paths of infection. That is fundamentally good, because it means the pandemic can be handled in a far more targeted manner. But at the same time, that means we may come to question numerous measures that were implemented at the start of the pandemic and which now may appear to have been the opposite: untargeted or perhaps even unnecessary.
Some of the research on "superspreaders" and "superspreader events," for instance, may well lead to such discussions. People may ask: What was helpful, what worked, and what measures will work in future?
Will the coronavirus kill the heart of German football?
12:35
This browser does not support the video element.
How do you become a superspreader?
Epidemiologists describe superspreaders as people who infect a significantly high number of other people. That's not strictly a superspreader's fault — anyone can become a superspreader if they happen to come into contact with a lot of people at the wrong time.
And the timing is important. A person can be infectious before they see the first symptoms. That's when, it seems, the viral load is especially high in a person's nose and throat.
But many people have few or no symptoms at all. They often don't realize that they are infected and, as a result, that they are infectious.
In addition, it seems that some people spread more of a virus — and that for a longer period of time — than other people. That may have something to do with their individual immune systems, or the distribution of virus receptors in their bodies.
How do superspreader events occur?
If a highly infectious superspreader comes into contact with lots of other people, it is possible that they will infect a higher than average number of people in a short amount of time, in a closed area.
When infections spiked after private parties, 700 people in this block of flats in Göttingen/ Germany were put in quarantineImage: picture-alliance/dpa/S. Pförtner
As a rule, it's been possible to trace such "infection clusters" around the world.
In Germany, recent superspreader events include an explosive rise in infection cases after large family gatherings in Göttingen, church services in Frankfurt, and carnival celebrations in Heinsberg.
Similar cases have emerged in clubs, a dance schools in Seoul, South Korea, a bar for skiers in Ischgl, Austria, cruise ships and slaughterhouses.
An airborne transmission?
Studies of superspreader events have shown that particular factors increase the chance of an event taking place. For instance, the risk of infection is significantly higher in closed spaces than outdoors. And the more the people, the greater the risk.
But why is that?
Increasingly, the indications suggest that this aggressive SARS-CoV-2 virus is not only transmitted via droplets and surfaces, but also by airborne transmission — the virus can linger in small and badly ventilated spaces in aerosol form.
Communal singing brings the community together. It may also help spread the coronavirus.Image: Reuters/D. Goldman
The studies so far have also shown that the aerosol is quickly distributed via loud talking or shouting — such as you might hear at a bar, club or a sports event. The same is true for singing in church services or in choirs. And some people release more aerosol than others.
Calculating the risk
It's usually the number of new infections that determine what measures to counter the spread of the coronavirus are implemented and to what extent.
One decisive factor is the reproduction rate R — that's the number of people an infected person infects on average. A rate of 2 means that an infected person infects a further two people. So, the aim of social distancing, for instance, is to get the rate as low as possible, and keep it there, down below 1.
Next to the reproduction rate, however, is the so-called dispersion factor k. That number indicates how often an illness occurs and where potential clusters appear. As with the rate of R, it's better to have a low value for k. That would indicate that the potential for distribution is small and the infection can be traced back to a few people or even a single person.
Nairobi residents brace for COVID-19
04:49
This browser does not support the video element.
But scientists have yet to work out the dispersion factor k for the novel coronavirus.
In one well-read study, researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) — Akira Endo, Adam Kucharski and Sebastian Funk — conclude that the k-rate of the coronavirus could be 0.1, which would suggest that 10% of infected people are responsible for 80% of all infections.
The LSHTM study is a "preprint" and has yet to be peer-reviewed by the scientific community — it needs to be verified and checked. But its results do coincide with those from other studies, including research led by Christian Drosten, head virologist at The Charité, a university hospital in Berlin. Drosten's research suggests that 20% of infectious people may be responsible for 80% of infections.
What does this mean for the current coronavirus measures?
When the novel coronavirus broke out, scientists around the world came under growing pressure to gather together all the available information. And based on what the scientists said, politicians around the world came under just as much pressure to decide how they could or should best protect people from the pandemic.
African designers take on COVID-19 in style
The face mask has become a global symbol in the fight against COVID-19. But for fashion designers in Africa, the masks are more than just a protective piece of cloth. Here are some of the best styles from the continent.
Image: Reuters/L. Gnago
Masks for the youngest
A boy in Abidjan is wearing a matching hat and mask created by Ivorian fashion designer Arthur Bella N'guessan.
Image: Reuters/L. Gnago
Donating masks
Arthur Bella N'guessan also creates custom masks that match his customers' clothes. His current daily output of masks stands at more than 1,000 a day and he gives many of them away for free.
Image: Reuters/L. Gnago
Lagos style
Protecting yourself and others Lagos style: Nigerian fashion influencer Angel Obasi showcases her red and white face mask with matching clothes.
Image: Reuters/T. Adelaja
Classic print
In many African countries, wearing a face mask in public has been mandated by the government to fight the spread of COVID-19. Designers and tailors all over the continent have been stepping up to meet the demand.
Image: Reuters/L. Gnago
Integrating each outfit
For designers like Sophie Zinga, photographed here at her workshop in Dakar, the task is clear: "As a fashion designer I think we are going to have to integrate each outfit with fashion masks."
Image: Reuters/C. Van Der Perre
Bright colours
In the Nigerian capital Abuja the rules are simple: the brighter, the better. This woman is showcasing the pink face mask she is wearing with her hijab.
Image: Reuters/A. Sotunde
Matching mannequin
A mannequin in the workshop of Ivorian designer Arthur Bella N'guessan sporting matching mask and clothing.
Image: Reuters/L. Gnago
Individual styles
For young fashion buffs at University of Lagos like Uche Helen, wearing custom-made masks is a way to stand out.
Image: Reuters/T. Adelaja
Luxury items
High-end fashion made in Africa: This mask, worn by Nigerian fashion stylist Sefiya Diejomoah, is studded with sparkling diamante jewels. "When you come out in a stylish mask, it doesn't seem as though we're fighting a war," Diejomoah says.
Image: Reuters/T. Adelaja
Economic necessity
For many fashion designers in Africa, creating protective gear such as mask has been a way to keep business going despite the economic downturn.
Image: Reuters/A. Sotunde
10 images1 | 10
The debate about face masks, which were derided before they became compulsory, is one example of a policy that may have to be adapted as new knowledge is won — even if not everyone understands or wants to understand why.
Research into superspreaders so far shows that most infected people infect only few other people, but that a few infected people have the potential to infect many more people. That is good news as it suggests the measures to contain the pandemic can be targeted better than before.
While it's remains difficult to identify and isolate superspreaders, because many superspreaders have few or no symptoms, it is possible to monitor the sorts of circumstances that can create a superspreading event.
A ghostly emptiness at sports events instead of cheers and hugging peopleImage: picture-alliance/dpa/U. Deck
It may be possible to contain the further spread of the virus with ongoing bans on large gatherings, especially in closed environments, and if people follow the other hygiene and distancing rules.
If that works, whole cities won't necessarily have to be closed or locked down, with all the associated economic and social fears that come with that. Perhaps distancing rules could be relaxed step-by-step to allow a relatively normal situation for businesses, schools and kindergartens until a medicinal drug or a vaccine are developed.
But what if that's not possible?
Politicians and other decision makers could easily continue to ban large gatherings, communal singing, and place restrictions on restaurants and cafes.
Not everyone sticks to social distancing rules as well as these people in San FranciscoImage: picture-alliance/dpa/J. Chiu
But it all comes down to how we behavior as individuals. As soon as the weather turns again, and all those parties or meetings outdoors get moved back indoors, there will be plenty of situations, where we will fail to observe those distancing and hygiene rules. And if there's a single superspreader in your gathering, you could have a superspreader event on your hands.
If that happens, it will be very important to find the new cluster without delay and to immediately isolate everyone who had contact in that situation. Only once that's done, should those contact people be tested — experts say that strategy helps limit the spread of the virus and saves valuable time.
Japan, for instance, used this method to slowly but successfully contain the spread of the coronavirus and spare the country a full lockdown.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
The COVID-19 epidemic poses a threat to the everyday life of people worldwide. Travelers are particularly affected, as are people working in tourism. Here are the latest developments.
Image: Jc Viens/AP/dpa/picture alliance
Cruise ships return to Venice
The cruise ship MSC Orchestra makes its way down the Giudecca Canal in the early morning. Early risers in Venice woke up on June 3, 2021 to the sight of a cruise ship sailing down the Giudecca Canal for the first time since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, despite the Italian governments' promises to reroute the huge ships due to safety and environmental concerns.
Image: Jc Viens/AP/dpa/picture alliance
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania reopens to tourists
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will open its hotels to tourists from Germany on June 4. From June 11, day visitors to the northeast will also be able to return. Owners of vacation homes and boats, as well as long-term campers from outside the state, will already be allowed back on May 28. Tourists must present a negative coronavirus test upon arrival, which must be updated every three days.
Image: Jens Koehler/picture alliance
Museums and cafés in France have reopened
For the first time in six and a half months, France’s cafés and restaurants are once again allowed to open their outdoor areas. As of Wednesday (May 19), non-essential businesses and department stores, as well as museums, cinemas, and theaters have also reopened. The nighttime curfew across all of France is now in effect from 9pm – two hours later than its previous start time.
Image: Lewis Joly/AP Photo/picture alliance
Austria lifts quarantine requirement on entry
Austria from Wednesday (May 19) will allow entry from Germany without quarantine. Mandatory, however, remains a proof of vaccination, a negative test or full recovery from a COVID infection. "In many states, the infection rates are declining, so in parallel with the opening up steps in the country, we can also implement facilitation of entry into Austria," said Health Minister Wolfgang Mückstein.
Image: Patrick Daxenbichler/Zoonar/picture alliance
Portugal lifts entry restrictions for EU citizens
Portugal is easing its entry restrictions for travelers from most EU countries. People from EU countries where the COVID-19 infection rate is below 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over a 14-day period will be allowed back into the country, even for "non-essential" purposes. However, testing is strictly mandatory.
Image: Frank Hoermann/SvenSimon/picture alliance
No parties in Mallorca this summer
Francina Armengol, the President of the Balearic Islands, has issued a preliminary rejection of any hopes for parties on the island of Mallorca this summer. “We can only start to allow places to open and nightlife to return once we have a higher vaccination rate”, Armengol said. Responsible tourism will be prioritized. “Nightlife will follow, but later, and probably not this summer.”
Image: Lakomski/Jan Huebner/imago images
Germany's annual Oktoberfest canceled again
Munich's Oktoberfest will be canceled for a second year in a row due to the coronavirus pandemic. The decision was made by Bavarian state Premier Markus Söder and Munich Mayor Dieter Reiter. "In the classic beer tents at the big festivals, social distancing, masks and other measures are practically impossible to implement," Söder said. Reiter said canceling the Oktoberfest again was a great pity.
Image: Sammy Minkoff/imago images
Vatican Museums reopen
Following the third wave of the coronavirus in Italy, the Vatican Museums reopened on Monday (May 3). About 1,000 visitors registered for the first day alone, said Barbara Jatta, director of the museums. It was a "great joy" to finally no longer only be safeguarding the works of art, but also to be able to share them with others again, she said.
The U.S. has heightened its travel warnings on account of the coronavirus pandemic, now additionally advising against travel to Germany and other EU countries – where the U.S. State Department's has applied its red-alert level. This represents the highest of its four risk-advisory levels for travel. At the third level, previously in force, the advice was only to reconsider any planned travel.
Image: picture-alliance/robertharding/T. Auzins
Israel open for tourists who have been vaccinated
Starting at the end of May, Israel wants to let tourists with a Covid-19 vaccination back into the country. Tourists will have to comply with the requirements, which include proof of vaccination and negative Covid-19 test results. After the pandemic broke out, Israel had effectively isolated itself, with foreign citizens only allowed into the country in exceptional cases.
Image: Anton Starikov/Zoonar/picture alliance
Greece reopens for tourists from May 14
Starting May 14, Greece plans to open its borders to vacationers from EU countries as well as from some other countries such as Great Britain and Serbia, to save the domestic tourism sector. Travelers will be allowed to enter the country for a vacation without having to undergo quarantine. They will, however, require travelers to either be vaccinated or show a negative PCR test.
Image: Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto/picture alliance
Vaccinated foreigners allowed to enter Croatia
As of April 1, foreign travellers are permitted to enter Croatia again if they can present evidence that they have been vaccinated against coronavirus. In addition, anyone who has a negative PCR test or an antigen test or can prove that they have recovered from Covid-19 within the past six months may also cross the borders. Before, you had to present a negative PCR test or quarantine for ten days.
Image: Pablo Camacho/PhotoAlto/picture alliance
Malta to reopen to tourists from June
Malta is rapidly progressing with COVID-19 vaccinations and plans to open to tourists on a large scale from June. The island is focusing primarily on outdoor activities such as scuba diving. A total of 20 million euros will be invested in the reopening. Air and sea passengers with vaccination passes will then be allowed into the country, while all others will still have to present a negative test.
Germany introduces general testing as entry requirement into the country
On March 22, the entry rules into Germany were tightened again. After tourist travel to Germany had already been made unfeasible due to the coronavirus pandemic, in future travelers returning to Germany will also have to have a COVID test before departure - irrespective of the infection situation in the country of departure. The Infection Protection Act is to be amended accordingly.
Image: Boris Roessler/dpa/picture alliance
Vacation to Majorca possible again without quarantining
The German Foreign Office removed its travel warning for Majorca on Sunday (March 14). You can now visit Majorca again without needing to quarantine or take a test once you’ve returned to Germany. Bookings have increased significantly, and more flights are being added. The other Balearic islands as well as parts of the Spanish mainland are also no longer considered coronavirus risk regions.
Image: August/Eibner-Pressefoto/picture alliance
Tourism industry pushes for an early open in Europe
Norbert Fiebig, president of the German Travel Association (DRV), has urged that it is "time for a coordinated approach to restore safe travel." He is counting on vaccination certificates and rapid coronavirus tests – strategies also promoted by politicians. The EU decided on February 25, for instance, to have introduced standardized vaccination passports for travelers by the summer.
Image: Clara Margais/dpa/picture alliance
Discussion over travel benefits for vaccinated people
Greece and Israel signed an agreement (Feb 9) to that will allow vaccinated tourists to travel between their two countries withthout restrictions. In Europe, whether vaccinated people should be the first to be allowed to travel again is controversial. While Germany is still reluctant, some countries already allow easier entry with a vaccination certificate, including Estonia, Poland and Iceland.
Image: Frank Hoermann/SVEN SIMON/picture alliance
Tourism slumps worldwide
Just how disastrous the 2020 travel year was is made clear in the latest survey by the UN tourism organization UNWTO: 74% decline in global tourism worldwide, with over a hundred million jobs tied to it. Forecasts for 2021 also remain cautious in the face of travel restrictions. The emerging trends are home-based holidays, nature-based vacations, and more interest in sustainable travel.
Image: Felicitas Wilke/DW
Beijing cancels flights and trains for Chinese New Year
Hundreds of millions of Chinese are currently seeing their travel plans put on hold for the Chinese New Year on February 12, with flights and train services canceled on Thursday, especially in Beijing, at the start of the most important travel season of the year. Across the country, people are being asked to refrain from traveling to prevent a major outbreak that could lead to "massive lockdowns."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/SIPA/Hao Qunying
Israel suspends international flights
Israel is largely suspending its international flights for nearly a week. The flight suspension goes into effect at 00:00 local time on Tuesday (Jan. 26) and will remain in effect until Sunday. The measure is intended to prevent coronavirus strains from entering the country. Up to 40 percent of new cases in Israel are due to the British COVID-19 mutation.
Image: picture-alliance/W. Rothermel
Tourists allowed back into Sri Lanka - under conditions
Ten months after the border closure, international tourists can travel to Sri Lanka again. As confirmed by officials on Monday (Jan 18), travelers will be able to re-enter the island from Jan. 21 if they comply with strict security regulations, present a negative PCR test and stay in a quarantine hotel for 14 days.
Image: picture-alliance/robertharding/R. Francis
Pompeii reopens to visitors
Despite extended coronavirus restrictions in Italy, as of Monday (Jan 18), museums and exhibitions in some regions will be able to reopen. This rule applies to the so-called Yellow Zones, where the coronavirus infection situation is less tense. Among others, the Archaeological Park in Pompeii is again able to receive visitors because it is located in the yellow region of Campania.
Image: Colourbox
Australians allowed quarentine-free travel to New Zealand again from 2021
New Zealand is setting up a "travel bubble" with neighboring Australia. After months of border closures due to the coronavirus pandemic, New Zealand will once again allow tourists from Australia to enter the country without quarantine requirements in the New Year. New Zealanders have been able to travel to Australia again since October without having to go into quarantine.
Image: picture-alliance/All Canada Photos
After an eight-month break Aida Cruises launches cruise again
On Saturday (December 5) the first Aida cruise ship is scheduled to leave for a one-week trip to the Canary Islands. The ship, designed for 3300 passengers, will reportedly be 50 percent full. All passengers will need to provide a negative coronavirus test, no more than 72 hours old. On board, strict hygiene and distancing rules apply, and only guided shore excursions will be possible.
Image: Ingeborg Knol/imabeBROKER/picture alliance
Australian airline to introduce obligatory vaccination
Australian airline Qantas wants to introduce compulsory vaccination for intercontinental flights. "We will require international travelers to be vaccinated before we allow them on board," Qantas CEO Alan Joyce stated. The general terms and conditions would be adjusted accordingly. Whether this will also be a requirement for domestic flights has not yet been decided.
Image: Bai Xuefei/Xinhua News Agency/picture-alliance/dpa
Machu Picchu is open again
Machu Picchu, the ancient Inca city in the Peruvian Andes mountains, has reopened almost eight months after it was closed down due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Peruvian authorities organized an Inca ritual to mark the reopening. To allow for distancing, a maximum of 675 tourists per day are allowed to enter the old Inca city. That is less than a third of the normal number allowed.
Image: Martin Mejia/AP Photo/picture alliance
Rio cancels its famous carnival parade for the first time in a century
Rio de Janeiro's famous annual Carnival spectacle will not go ahead in February. Organizers said the spread of the coronavirus in Brazil made it impossible to safely hold parades which with some seven million people celebrating are a cultural mainstay, tourism magnet and, for many, a source of livelihood. Brazil has the second highest death rate in the world after the United States and India.
Image: Alexandre Schneider/Getty Image
Germany to enter a one-month lockdown
To curb the spread of the coronavirus pandemic the German government has announced though new measures to start Monday, November 2. The new restrictions effect the travel business as overnight stays in hotels for tourist purposes will be banned, entertainment facilities such as theaters and cinemas will be closed as will bars and restaurants, which will only be allowed to offer take out services.
Image: Jens Kalaene/dpa/picture-alliance
Nuremberg cancels Christmas market
The city announced on Monday (Oct.26) that this decision had been made in view of the rapidly increasing number of coronavirus cases. The mayor explained that it was to be assumed that in the near future the Covid-19 traffic light in Nuremberg will change to dark red. "Against this background, we think it would be the wrong signal to go ahead with the annual Christkindlesmarkt Christmas market.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/D. Ebner
Global cruise ship association to require coronavirus tests for all
The cruise industry has decided to make coronavirus testing mandatory for all guests and crew members aboard cruise ships. The Cruise Lines International Association, the world’s largest such organization, announced on October 8 that passengers can only board ships by providing proof of a negative test result. All member shipping companies worldwide must now comply with this rule.
Image: Daniel Bockwoldt/dpa/picture-alliance
German government declares all of Belgium and Iceland risk areas
In the wake of significant increases in coronavirus infection figures in Europe, Berlin has announced further EU countries as risk areas for travelers. In addition to Belgium and Iceland, additional areas of France and Great Britain, including all of Northern Ireland and Wales, were also classified as risk areas on September 30.
Image: Stefan Ziese/imageBROKER/picture-alliance
Taj Mahal reopens for tourists
India's most famous building was closed for six months, but since Monday ( September 21) it can be visited again, under strict restrictions. Only 5000 online tickets will be issued per day. There are temperature checks at the entrance. Selfies are allowed, group photos are prohibited. The Taj Mahal is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and is normally visited by 8 million people every year.
Image: Pawan Sharma/picture-alliance/AP Photo
Historical sales losses in global tourism
Because of the coronavirus pandemic, the tourism sector has suffered a loss of 460 billion dollars (388 billion euros) from January to June, the World Tourism Organization reported in Madrid. The loss of sales was five times higher than during the international financial and economic crisis of 2009, and the total number of tourists worldwide fell by 65 percent in the first half of the year.
Image: AFP/D. Martin
Berlin to start 'differentiated system' for travel warnings
The German government has extended its travel warning for around 160 countries through September 30. The advisory applies to "third countries" — i.e. countries that are not members of the EU or associated with the Schengen area. From October 1st, a "differentiated system" will apply, in which individual travel and safety information will be given for each country.
Australia has extended its travel restrictions for a further three months. The borders will remain closed for visitors from abroad until at least December 17. However, the government announced that domestic travel will soon be allowed for residents of the country. An exception will be the state of Victoria, with its metropolis Melbourne, for which a lockdown has been in place since early July.
Image: SeaLink Travel Group
Germany extends global travel warning
The German government has extended the travel warning for around 160 countries outside the European Union by two weeks until September 14. A spokeswoman for the German Foreign Ministry explained the move on Wednesday (Aug 26) with rising coronavirus infection rates. "The situation will not relax sufficiently by mid-September to be able to lift the worldwide travel warning," she said.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Arnold
Compulsory COVID-19 tests on entry into Germany
Anyone entering Germany from a high-risk area must take a coronavirus test from August 8, after an order by Health Minister Jens Spahn. Currently, many countries are classified as risk areas, including the United States and Brazil. In the European Union, Luxembourg, the Belgian region of Antwerp and the Spanish regions of Aragon, Catalonia and Navarre were risk areas as of early August.
Image: Reuters/F. Bensch
Setback for cruise holidays
Norwegian cruise operator Hurtigruten has stopped all cruises on August 3 until further notice after an outbreak of the coronavirus on one of its ships. At least 40 passengers and crew members on the Roald Amundsen tested positive for COVID-19. Meanwhile, German cruise line Aida Cruises has also postponed its planned restart due to the lack of necessary permits.
